欧洲主权债务危机传导路径和发展趋势

Since late 2009 Greek government debt crisis happened, Europe’s Debt Crisis has been raging for more than two years. Specially, it has become a perceived problem for the area as a whole after late 2011 and it could spread to several other countries in the future. Therefore, it’s necessary to analyze completely the origin, evolution, cause of Europe’s Debt Crisis, to explore the law of sovereign debt crisis and to forecast its development trend.. To analyze the background and evolution of this Crisis, this project conducts and analyzes financial records dated many years and possibly decades old. And then, the project analyzes the government debt levels of EU member states and their structures and uses CCA approach to analyze the economic relation of EU member states and their trend. Secondly, this project explains the causes and evolving trend of this crisis after the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing, including the EU area as a whole and many critical countries such as Spain, Italy and France, is examined by the generational accounting method. Thirdly, We make the comparison on Europe’s debt crisis and Latin American debt crisis and analyze its enlightenments to Europe. Fourthly, EU might significantly increase their international competitiveness to improve the situation, so we will calculate the real effective exchange rate indicator based on the unit labor cost of EU which is considered as a better external competitiveness indicator, and analyze the probable solutions and measures provided by EU. These findings are helpful for its impact on China''s economy for a brief analysis.. It is of great practical significance for China’s preventing sovereign debt crisis, responding positively, striving to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages when facing the grim international economic environment, and adjusting fiscal policy and fiscal revenue’s and expenditure’s structure.

自2009 年底希腊主权债务危机浮出水面以来，欧债危机已持续了两年多时间， 2011 年下半年以来又出现了蔓延趋势，其未来的走向还存在很大变数。因此，需要全面分析欧债危机的背景、演进、历史成因，探寻主权债务危机发生的规律，展望其未来走势。. 本研究从欧债危机识别指标的数据分析、政府累积显性债务的总量与来源构成分析、欧元区国家的经济关联性分析与变化趋势等三个方面分析欧债危机的背景及演进；从人口老龄化角度探究欧盟整体和重点国家的财政负担，研究其历史成因及未来趋势；与拉美债务危机进行比较研究，分析其对欧债危机发展趋势的启示；研究欧盟整体的国际竞争力变化趋势，分析欧盟应对危机的可能措施，引出欧债危机对中国的影响研究。. 这对于中国防范主权债务危机风险、在复杂国际经济环境中趋利避害具有重大的现实意义，将为中国调整财政政策和财政收支结构、主动规避主权债务危机风险提供借鉴。

本研究比较全面地分析欧债危机的背景、演进、历史成因，探寻了欧洲主权债务危机发生的规律，展望其未来走势。本研究从欧债危机识别指标的数据分析、政府累积显性债务的总量与来源构成分析、欧元区国家的经济关联性分析与变化趋势等三个方面分析欧债危机的背景及演进；从人口老龄化角度探究欧盟整体和重点国家的财政负担，研究其历史成因及未来趋势；与拉美债务危机进行比较研究，分析其对欧债危机发展趋势的启示；研究欧盟整体的国际竞争力变化趋势。.根据我们的研究，欧盟在未来40年内预期寿命会持续增加，人口老龄化问题日益突出，这会继续增加政府的负债率，欧债危机是一个中长期问题。法国的政府债务高筑、居高不下的财政赤字和社会保障支出、日益加重的老龄化趋势，束缚了法国救助欧债危机的手脚，会拖累欧债危机的恢复时间。人口老龄化也是中国未来发展所面临的问题。我国应建立适应人口老龄化前景的社会保障体系，这是对于社会经济安全的长远保证。.欧债危机的持续期可能会长于十年，欧债危机的救助将是一个长期、复杂的过程。美国在欧债危机救助中不会充当重要角色，欧盟将需要主要依靠自身力量来解决欧债危机。欧债危机的救助已从解决流动性危机转到欧盟的制度改革，包括公共收支结构的根本转型、成员国经济结构的完善、增长潜力的提升、各国经济均衡发展的制度改革等，这些制度改革有助于欧债危机的解决。但是，与拉美债务危机救助中的制度改革问题相比，欧元区的制度改革更复杂，欧元区主权国家是在同一货币体系下进行相关改革，需要协调欧元区各国的相关利益。因此，欧债危机的救助将是一个长期、复杂的过程。美国在欧债危机救助中不会充当重要角色，直接利益关系小，欧盟需要依靠自身的力量来解决欧债危机。.中国对欧盟出口会持续低迷。中国应该采用有利的出口政策支持中国劳动密集型产业的发展，支持中国金融机构在欧盟设立分行支持与中国贸易的中小型贸易企业。欧盟新兴产业的发展增强了国际市场的竞争激烈程度，应采取更有利于新兴产业发展的政策环境。.从法国的发展经验告诉我们，力求GDP增长率达到一定水平，外债率控制在一定范围之内，我国能有效预防本国债务危机的发生。中国对欧元区国家的救助，要避免去支付欧元区国家的社会福利，这是一个无底洞。

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