黄淮海平原粮食生产、生态恢复与城镇化建设的土地利用权衡与评价

Our study aims to explore the trade-offs on land uses for grain production, ecological restoration and urbanization in the North China Plain. We will estimate the land-use efficiency, ecological efficiency and environmental performance for these three kinds of functions at regional extent so that exact scientific information for adaptive decision-making on land uses. Our study intends to apply for the dynamics of land system (DLS) model to clarify the interaction mechanism of grain production, ecological restoration and urbanization over space. We will also adopt the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to incorporate ecological variables for estimating the land-use efficiency, ecological efficiency and environmental performance of land uses. By doing so, we will analyze the performance of land uses for grain production, ecological restoration and urbanization, as of course will reveal the valuable information on trade-offs of land uses at regional extent. We present the structural changes of land uses for the period between 2015 and 2030 by using the Computable General Equilibrium on Land Use Change (CGELUC) model based on an Input-Output table compiled at counties under various kinds of development scenarios of the North China Plain. We will conduct field survey at selected but typical counties and households via a spatial stratified sampling strategy. Based on these first hand data, we will provide information for adaptive land-use management through an all-round analysis on those production behaviors of households and the model-based research in the North China Plain.

本研究就黄淮海平原粮食生产、生态恢复与城镇化建设的土地利用开展权衡分析，评估其三类土地利用(功能)的(土地)资源利用效率、生态效率与环境绩效，提炼了有效调控土地利用的信息。本研究集成多源数据，利用土地系统动态(DLS)模型，探索了研究区粮食生产、生态恢复、城镇化建设的空间耦合机理。构建并估计了引入生态变量的随机前沿生产函数(SFA)，核算了黄淮海平原粮食生产、生态恢复、城镇化建设的土地利用效率、生态效率、环境绩效，分析了三类土地利用功能的投入产出绩效，提炼并评价了有效发挥该区域三类土地利用功能的权衡策略。编制县级投入产出表，设计情景并基于土地利用动态均衡分析(CGELUC)模型，分析预测了2015-2030年黄淮海平原土地利用变化结构特征。基于空间分层抽样，开展典型县、典型户的样本实地调查，基于实证研究与农户行为分析，提炼了农户层面土地利用的适应性管理策略。

本研究就黄淮海平原粮食生产、生态恢复与新型城镇化建设三大区域功能的联系与冲突开展权衡分析，评估各功能土地利用效率、生态效率与环境绩效，提炼优化土地利用的决策支持信息。本研究集成遥感监测数据、县级社会经济数据等多源数据，编制县级投入产出表，设计情景并基于土地利用动态均衡分析(CGELUC)模型预测2015-2030年黄淮海平原土地利用变化格局，构建并估计随机前沿分析(SFA)函数，评估三大区域功能的土地利用效率、生态效率，测算其技术无效率区间并识别关键影响因素，分析粮食生产与生态恢复恢复、新型城镇化建设与生态恢复的投入产出绩效，揭示三大区域功能权衡策略；基于空间分层抽样，开展黄淮海平原典型县、典型户的样本实地调查，补充分析农户行为，开展实证研究，决策支持农户层面土地利用的优化管理。

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