基于MLP的知识密集型产业主导技术的形成机理及促进政策研究

Under the pressure of upgrade in Chinese industrial restructure, as well as in a so changeable economic environment, it is of theoretical and realistic significance for researchers to give a systematic and comprehensive study on the formation mechanism of knowledge-intensive industry' dominant technology, and thus put forward some countermeasures and suggestions related, which are advisable to their sound growth and sustainable development in techniques and new pattern economy.. Developed under the scheme of 'theoretical basis- mechanism analysis- simulating model - policy study', the project firstly aims at summarizing its basic theories, defining the dominant technology of knowledge-intensive industry and further identifying it based on patentometrics. Secondly, we will explore the linkages between the formation mechanism of dominant technology and multi-level perspective; then regarding the competition and cooperation relations among technical agents, technical groups, as well as adaptation options, we investigate dominant technology's formation mechanism from three aspects of niches, regimes and landscape respectively. Thirdly, on the basis of the holistic model of the formation mechanism of knowledge-intensive industry' dominant technology, we are trying to elaborate multi-level interactive mechanism in the formation process of dominant technology, and then analyze the evolution of competition and cooperation relations in different levels. Eventually, we will validate the simulation results from agent-based models with some relevant instances, and further put forward the relevant policy suggestions for promoting the formation of the dominant technology, which are based on our country's own practices in knowledge-intensive industry.

在我国产业转型升级的压力下，在复杂多变的经济环境中，系统、深入地研究知识密集型产业主导技术的形成机理，科学、可行地提出相关政策，对我国知识密集型产业的健康成长、产业技术的持续进步和新型经济的有序发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。. 项目将按照“理论基础－机理分析－模型仿真－政策研究”的脉络展开研究。首先，梳理项目的基础理论，对知识密集型产业主导技术进行界定与专利计量识别；其次，探寻主导技术的形成机理与MLP分析框架的结合点，根据技术主体间、技术关联群体间的竞争、合作关系以及主体与环境的适应性选择关系，分别对生态位、技术域、社会技术地景三个层面的主导技术形成机理进行剖析；再次，构建知识密集型产业主导技术形成机理的MLP整体模型，阐释主导技术形成的多层面互动机理，探讨各层面竞争、合作关系的演化规律；最后，对MLP整体模型进行智能体仿真和案例研究，提出促进知识密集型产业主导技术形成的相关政策。

进入21世纪以来，知识密集型产业已成为国民经济中最具成长性和价值创造性的支柱产业，研究知识密集型产业主导技术的形成机理问题对于我国谋求国际话语权、成功实现技术赶超、保持经济长远发展具有重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。.项目按照“理论基础－机理分析－模型仿真－政策研究”的脉络展开研究。首先，从专利数据和引证关系入手，综合运用路径搜索的SPC-KSP算法构建了知识密集型产业主导技术的识别模型，并进行了实例验证；其次，基于MLP分析框架，分别从生态位、技术域、社会技术地景三个层面入手研究了知识密集型产业主导技术的形成机理，并进行了仿真分析；在此基础上，构建了三个层面交互作用的知识密集型产业主导技术形成机理的MLP整体模型，并对主导技术形成的多层面互动机理进行了智能体仿真和案例验证；最后，根据上述研究结论，分别从企业、行业管理者和政府三个视角出发，提出了促进知识密集型产业主导技术形成的政策建议。

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