Developing fisheries models of intermediate complexity to address spatial dynamics and species interactions

开发中等复杂度的渔业模型以解决空间动态和物种相互作用

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04045
• 负责人: McAllister, Murdoch
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=761614
• 关键词: Developing; fisheries; models; intermediate; complexity

Models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem analysis (MICE) have been proposed as decision support tools for fisheries management. MICE limit complexity by focusing on ecosystem components that are required to address the main effects of the management questions of interest. MICE thereby address some of the impediments to wider use of ecosystem models in fisheries management. Despite their appeal, MICE have seen few applications due to the substantial data requirements for this approach and a scarcity of scientists with the computer modeling and statistical expertise required. Working with BC Ministry of Environment scientists my group developed a MICE that could evaluate yield outcomes of different fishery regulations for the Kootenay Lake trophy trout fishery. A model that included predator-prey interactions fitted the predator-prey abundance data better and predicted yields 25% higher than models that did not include predator-prey interactions. With the collapse of the trophy trout fishery in 2015, fishery managers have requested a MICE to evaluate the consequences of different management options that could rebuild the fishery. DFO and fishery stakeholders recently used management strategy evaluation (MSE) results for Atlantic redfish that were computed by my group to narrow the list of different management procedures (MPs) from over 30 to 5 for further consideration. Preliminary analyses suggested that range contraction in the stocks, i.e., decreases in spatial distribution coinciding with decreases in fish abundance, could imply that stock declines could be much less than assessed in the MSE. To increase the usefulness of MICE, I propose to investigate the following: (1) In a large lake ecosystem, i.e., Kootenay Lake, evaluate the effects of trophic and predator-prey interactions on the population dynamics of fish stocks and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop and apply a MICE that is fitted to data and will enable evaluations of different combinations of management actions to promote recovery of the recently collapsed trophy trout fishery. (2) For a widely distributed fish stock, i.e., Atlantic redfish, evaluate the effects of range contraction on assessed trends in abundance, population productivity and species interactions, and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop, fit to data and apply MICE to evaluate different MPs under joint scenarios for range contraction and species interactions. 2 MSc and 2 PhD students and one post doc will be trained in MICE and MSE modeling. The modeling results obtained in the proposed work could help to inform decisions that could restore and increase the value of the Kootenay Lake fishery by up to $10 million per year. If corrections were made to the redfish MSE to account for range contraction, sustainable yields and the associated wealth generated could be 20,000 t higher and $40 million higher per year.

已提出了用于生态系统分析（小鼠）的中间复杂性模型作为渔业管理的决策支持工具。小鼠通过关注生态系统组件来限制复杂性，这些成分需要解决感兴趣的管理问题的主要影响。因此，小鼠解决了在渔业管理中更广泛使用生态系统模型的一些障碍。尽管出现了它们，但由于这种方法的大量数据要求以及所需的计算机建模和统计专业知识的科学家稀缺，因此很少看到应用。与卑诗省环境部科学家合作，我的小组开发了一只小鼠，可以评估Kootenay Lake Trophy Trophy鳟鱼渔业的不同渔业法规的结果。一个包括捕食者 - 捕食相互作用的模型可以更好地拟合捕食者 - 纯抽象数据，并且预测比不包含捕食者 - 捕获相互作用的模型高25％。随着2015年奖杯鳟鱼渔业的崩溃，渔业经理要求一只小鼠评估可能重建渔业的不同管理方案的后果。 DFO和渔业利益相关者最近使用了管理策略评估（MSE）的大西洋红鱼结果，这些结果是由我的小组计算的，以将不同的管理程序（MPS）范围从30岁以上到5缩小，以进一步考虑。初步分析表明，股票的收缩范围收缩，即与鱼类丰度下降一致的空间分布减少可能意味着库存下降可能远低于MSE评估。为了提高小鼠的实用性，我建议研究以下内容：（1）在大型湖泊生态系统中，即kootenay湖，评估了营养和捕食者 - 捕集型相互作用对鱼类库存种群动态的影响以及不同MP的产量和保护成果。我的小组将开发和应用适合数据的小鼠，并能够评估不同管理措施的组合，以促进最近崩溃的奖杯鳟鱼渔业的恢复。 （2）对于广泛的分布式鱼类种群，即大西洋红鱼，评估范围收缩对抽象，人口生产力和物种相互作用评估趋势的影响，以及不同MP的产量和保护结果。我的小组将开发，适合数据并应用小鼠以在联合场景下评估不同的MP，以进行范围收缩和物种相互作用。 2名MSC和2名博士学位学生以及一名Post Doc将在老鼠和MSE建模中接受培训。在拟议的工作中获得的建模结果可能有助于为可能恢复和增加Kootenay湖渔业价值的决策提供信息。如果对红鱼MSE进行更正以说明范围收缩，那么可持续的收益率和相关的财富可能会高20,000吨，每年高4000万美元。