Developing fisheries models of intermediate complexity to address spatial dynamics and species interactions

开发中等复杂度的渔业模型以解决空间动态和物种相互作用

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04045
• 负责人: McAllister, Murdoch
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=737363
• 关键词: Developing; fisheries; models; intermediate; complexity

Models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem analysis (MICE) have been proposed as decision support tools for fisheries management. MICE limit complexity by focusing on ecosystem components that are required to address the main effects of the management questions of interest. MICE thereby address some of the impediments to wider use of ecosystem models in fisheries management. Despite their appeal, MICE have seen few applications due to the substantial data requirements for this approach and a scarcity of scientists with the computer modeling and statistical expertise required. Working with BC Ministry of Environment scientists my group developed a MICE that could evaluate yield outcomes of different fishery regulations for the Kootenay Lake trophy trout fishery. A model that included predator-prey interactions fitted the predator-prey abundance data better and predicted yields 25% higher than models that did not include predator-prey interactions. With the collapse of the trophy trout fishery in 2015, fishery managers have requested a MICE to evaluate the consequences of different management options that could rebuild the fishery. DFO and fishery stakeholders recently used management strategy evaluation (MSE) results for Atlantic redfish that were computed by my group to narrow the list of different management procedures (MPs) from over 30 to 5 for further consideration. Preliminary analyses suggested that range contraction in the stocks, i.e., decreases in spatial distribution coinciding with decreases in fish abundance, could imply that stock declines could be much less than assessed in the MSE. To increase the usefulness of MICE, I propose to investigate the following: (1) In a large lake ecosystem, i.e., Kootenay Lake, evaluate the effects of trophic and predator-prey interactions on the population dynamics of fish stocks and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop and apply a MICE that is fitted to data and will enable evaluations of different combinations of management actions to promote recovery of the recently collapsed trophy trout fishery. (2) For a widely distributed fish stock, i.e., Atlantic redfish, evaluate the effects of range contraction on assessed trends in abundance, population productivity and species interactions, and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop, fit to data and apply MICE to evaluate different MPs under joint scenarios for range contraction and species interactions. 2 MSc and 2 PhD students and one post doc will be trained in MICE and MSE modeling. The modeling results obtained in the proposed work could help to inform decisions that could restore and increase the value of the Kootenay Lake fishery by up to $10 million per year. If corrections were made to the redfish MSE to account for range contraction, sustainable yields and the associated wealth generated could be 20,000 t higher and $40 million higher per year.

生态系统分析的中等复杂性模型（MICE）已被提议作为渔业管理的决策支持工具，通过关注解决感兴趣的管理问题的主要影响所需的生态系统组成部分来限制复杂性，从而解决一些问题。尽管生态系统模型很有吸引力，但由于这种方法需要大量数据，而且缺乏与不列颠哥伦比亚省环境部科学家合作的具有计算机建模和统计专业知识的科学家，因此其应用很少。我的团队开发了 MICE可以评估库特尼湖奖杯鳟鱼渔业不同渔业法规的产量结果，包含捕食者-被捕食者相互作用的模型更好地拟合捕食者-被捕食者丰度数据，并且预测产量比不包括捕食者-被捕食者相互作用的模型高25%。随着 2015 年鳟鱼渔业的崩溃，渔业管理人员要求 MICE 评估可以重建渔业的不同管理方案的后果，渔业利益相关者最近使用了大西洋的管理策略评估 (MSE) 结果。我的小组计算出的红鱼将不同管理程序（MP）的列表从 30 多个缩小到 5 个以供进一步考虑，初步分析表明种群范围缩小，即空间分布的减少与鱼类丰度的减少同时发生。可能意味着种群下降量可能远小于 MSE 中的评估值。为了提高 MICE 的实用性，我建议进行以下调查：（1）在大型湖泊生态系统中，即库特尼。 Lake，评估营养和捕食者-猎物相互作用对鱼类种群动态以及不同 MP 的产量和保护结果的影响。我的小组将开发和应用适合数据的 MICE，并将能够评估不同的组合。促进最近崩溃的奖杯鳟鱼渔业恢复的管理行动 (2) 对于广泛分布的鱼类资源，即大西洋红鱼，评估范围缩小对评估的丰度趋势、种群生产力和物种相互作用以及产量和产量的影响。不同的保护成果我的团队将开发、拟合数据并应用 MICE 来评估不同的 MP 的范围收缩和物种相互作用，以及一名博士后将接受 MICE 和 MSE 建模的培训。如果对红鱼 MSE 进行修正以解决范围缩小、可持续产量和相关问题，拟议的工作可以帮助做出决策，从而使库特尼湖渔业的价值每年增加高达 1000 万美元。每年创造的财富可能增加 20,000 吨，增加 4,000 万美元。