Towards a better understanding of polar climate variability

更好地了解极地气候变化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-03888
• 负责人: Orsi, Anais
• 金额: $ 4.81万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751305
• 关键词: Towards; better; understanding; polar; climate

Polar regions are a key component of the Earth's climate system, and are changing dramatically under anthropogenic climate change. The single greatest challenge for polar climate science is that there are not enough data to describe the climatology and trends. As a result, even though Greenland and Antarctica are perhaps the most sensitive regions on Earth to climate change, it is still very difficult to precisely answer questions like "How much have they been warming over the past 50 years?", and even more difficult to put recent observations in the context of natural climate variability. The overarching goal of this research program is to better understand polar climate changes in the past, present and future, with an emphasis on temperature, and the hydrological cycle (precipitation, atmospheric humidity). To this aim, we will provide records in key locations using paleoclimate data, investigate processes with in-situ measurements and controlled laboratory experiments, bring many datasets together to get the bigger picture, and provide benchmarks to evaluate climate models in polar regions. In this 5-year program, we will focus on 3 objectives: -Quantify the interannual variability of Antarctic surface winds, its response to climate change, and its impact on the water cycle, using a polar oriented regional climate model, and new observations on the steep slopes of the Antarctic plateau. -Use databases of Antarctic paleoclimate records to better describe Antarctic climate variability at decadal and longer timescales during the late Holocene by reconstructing modes of variability (such as the Southern Annular Mode), rather than climate variables like temperature or snow accumulation. -Investigate the mechanisms driving modern changes in Arctic humidity, using new measurements of water vapour isotopic composition in the Western Canadian Arctic, and on the Müller ice cap (80°N,91°W). This humidity increase is a key component in the feedback mechanisms responsible for Arctic amplification. In the short term, this program will produce key new datasets that will improve our fundamental understanding on the response of polar regions to climate change. We will produce readily useable benchmarks to evaluate climate models, which will lead in the medium term to an improvement of the quality of climate projections in polar regions, and elsewhere. This research will benefit Canada by providing new observations and understanding of a large, under-studied, region in the Western Canadian Arctic. More generally, the improvement of our knowledge of polar climate change will improve the accuracy of future climate projections, and adaptation plans that depend on them. This program will train HQP with a broad range of skills in isotope geochemistry, data analysis and climate modelling. The emphasis of early-career HQP is intended to improve diversity in Earth Science by attracting future research scientists early in their academic careers.

极性区域是地球气候系统的关键组成部分，并且在人为气候变化下发生了巨大变化。对极地气候科学的最大挑战是，没有足够的数据来描述气候和趋势。结果，尽管格陵兰和南极洲可能是地球上最敏感的地区对气候变化的最敏感地区，但仍然很难确切回答诸如“他们在过去50年中他们在变暖了多少？”，而在自然气候变化的背景下，将最近的观察结果更加困难。该研究计划的总体目标是更好地了解过去，现在和未来的极地气候变化，并着重于温度和水文周期（降水，大气湿度）。为此，我们将使用古气候数据在关键位置提供记录，通过原位测量和受控的实验室实验研究过程，将许多数据集汇集在一起​​以获得更大的局面，并提供基准测试以评估极地地区的气候模型。在这个为期5年的计划中，我们将重点关注3个目标： - 使用面向极性的区域气候模型，对南极地面风的年际变化，其对气候变化的反应以及其对水周期的影响，以及对南极高原的钢槽的新观察结果。 - 通过重建可变性模式（例如南方环形模式），而不是攀升温度或积雪等变量，请使用南极古气候记录的数据库更好地描述十分纪念日和更长的时间尺度的南极气候变化。 - 对北极湿度的现代变化的机制进行了调查，使用加拿大西部北极和Müller冰盖（80°N，91°W）的水蒸气同位素组成的新测量。这种湿度增加是负责北极扩增的反馈机制的关键组成部分。在短期内，该计划将产生关键的新数据集，以提高我们对极地地区对气候变化的反应的基本理解。我们将很容易地使用可用的基准来评估气候模型，这将在中期导致极地地区和其他地方的气候项目的质量提高。这项研究将通过提供加拿大西部北极地区一个大型，经过研究的地区的新观察和理解来使加拿大受益。更一般而言，我们对极地气候变化的了解的提高将提高未来气候预测的准确性，并依赖于它们的适应计划。该计划将在同位素地球化学，数据分析和气候建模方面具有广泛的技能培训HQP。早期职业HQP的重点旨在通过吸引未来的研究科学家在学术职业的早期来改善地球科学的多样性。