Water resources systems modelling at the river-basin scale

流域尺度水资源系统建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-05861
• 负责人: Davies, Evan
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=712128
• 关键词: Water; resources; systems; modelling; river

This proposal presents a unique water resources management model at a river-basin scale that can reveal the complex and often unpredictable effects of changes in policy, infrastructure, socio-economic activity and environmental conditions over multiple decades into the future. Using a modelling approach called system dynamics, the model will simulate variables and outcomes important to governments, industries and the public. It will link: 1) municipal, industrial and agricultural water use, 2) the available supply and its change over time and 3) water quality and its connections to socio-economic activity and hydrological conditions. The model will help to put the concept of “water security” into practice. Water security emphasizes the necessity of 1) balance between human and environmental water requirements, 2) adaptive management in the face of limited predictability of water systems and 3) assessment of trade-offs among various possible water uses. The proposed river-basin model will simulate water supply, use and quality at a weekly time step for the 25,000 km2 Bow River basin of Southern Alberta. The Bow makes an ideal study area for several reasons: water is already scarce there in dry years; basin closure to new water allocations in 2006 constrains present and future water use; human population and economic activity are rising quickly; significant fish stocks and provincial targets make water quality a concern; and climate change is projected to alter temperatures and precipitation and decrease summer-time water availability. The model will be developed in collaboration with stakeholder groups, including Bow River Basin Council members, provincial government staff, municipal staff members, industry representatives, irrigation district personnel and the public. These stakeholders will be invited to help to select management options, define key scenarios, assess model behaviour and ensure that the model is useful for decision-support. From a scientific perspective, the model will address important gaps in water security and water systems research, and offer the potential to advance a fundamental understanding of coupled human and hydrological processes and their interactions. In practical terms, individual municipal and agricultural model components will aid medium to long-term planning for the City of Calgary, Bow River irrigation districts, provincial ministries, and other interested groups. The full river-basin model will integrate these individual components to serve as a practical decision-support tool at a high level of detail to: 1) project long-term watershed trajectories for plausible changes in population, climate, and municipal and agricultural systems; 2) permit assessment of possible consequences of water resources management options and 3) quantify trade-offs among water uses and their associated policies.

该提案提出了一种独特的流域水资源管理模型，可以使用称为“模型”的建模方法揭示未来几十年政策、基础设施、社会经济活动和环境条件变化的复杂且往往不可预测的影响。该模型将模拟对政府、工业和公众重要的变量和结果，它将连接：1) 市政、工业和农业用水，2) 可用供应及其随时间的变化，3) 水质及其变化。与社会经济活动和水文条件的联系。该模型将有助于将“水安全”的概念付诸实践。水安全强调 1）人类和环境用水需求之间的平衡，2）面对水系统可预测性有限的适应性管理以及 3）贸易评估的必要性。 - 各种可能的用水方式之间的差异。 拟议的河流流域模型将以每周时间步长模拟阿尔伯塔省南部 25,000 平方公里的弓河流域的供水、使用和质量，弓河成为理想的研究区域有以下几个原因：那里的水在干旱年份已经很稀缺； 2006 年流域的关闭限制了当前和未来的用水量和经济活动；大量的鱼类资源和省级目标使水质成为一个问题；预计气候变化将改变气温和降水并减少夏季的水量；时间水该模型将与利益相关者团体合作开发，包括弓河流域理事会成员、省政府工作人员、市政府工作人员、行业代表、灌溉区工作人员和公众。将邀请这些利益相关者帮助选择管理方案。定义关键场景、评估模型行为并确保模型可用于决策支持。 从科学的角度来看，该模型将解决水安全和水系统研究中的重要差距，并提供促进对人类和水文过程及其相互作用的基本理解的潜力。在实践中，各个市政和农业模型组成部分将有所帮助。卡尔加里市、弓河灌区、省部委和其他相关团体的中长期规划将整合这些单独的组成部分，作为高水平的实用决策支持工具。详细内容：1）长期项目人口、气候、市政和农业系统可能变化的流域轨迹；2) 允许评估水资源管理方案的可能后果；3) 量化用水及其相关政策之间的权衡。