Weather extremes and insect population dynamics

极端天气和昆虫种群动态

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-04374
• 负责人: Roland, Jens
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=711020
• 关键词: Weather; extremes; insect; population; dynamics

In this proposal, I examine the way in which extreme weather and changing climate affect long-term dynamics of the alpine Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. This proposal builds on long-term study of this butterfly (since 1995) examining the effects of rising treeline on loss and increased isolation of these small populations, and of general climate variability. We know that populations have limited dispersal ability, and that their population dynamics are affected most by over-winter weather. Populations decline in years with either extreme warm or extreme cold winters, particularly in years when there is little snow. Because alpine butterflies live in small isolated habitats, have limited dispersal, and are subject to extreme weather events, they serve as an excellent model system for identifying the risks to animal populations in a rapidly changing world. Two MSc students, one PhD student, and I, will identify the mechanisms by which winter temperatures and snowfall affect survival of the over-wintering egg stage, and the degree to which their survival explains variation in annual population growth or decline. We will use experimental planting' of eggs in late summer, and their recovery at intervals through the winter to determine mechanisms by which cold and hot winters affect their survival. We will use high-resolution satellite imagery and ground-based time-lapse photography to quantify snow cover across the meadows generally, and in our egg planting' experimental plots specifically. Results will be extrapolated to the geographic range of this species in an effort to determine the role of winter weather in defining the boundary of their distribution, and the potential for causing shifts in their geographic range. Results will determine whether these populations are at risk to changing climates or that P. smintheus butterflies are sufficiently adaptable via morphology, behaviour or physiology, to mitigate the anticipated warmer, more variable, and less snowy winters in future.

在此提案中，我研究了极端天气和气候变化影响高山阿波罗蝴蝶长期动态的方式，加拿大落基山脉中的帕纳西乌斯·辛科斯（Parnassius Smintheus）。该提议建立在对这只蝴蝶（自1995年以来）的长期研究的基础上，研究了树木上升对这些小人群的损失和隔离增加以及一般气候变化的影响。我们知道人口的分散能力有限，并且他们的人口动态受到过冬天气影响最大。多年来，人口在极端温暖或极端寒冷的冬季下降，尤其是在几年的降雪时。由于高山蝴蝶生活在小型孤立的栖息地，分散有限，并且受到极端天气事件的影响，因此它们是一个出色的模型系统，可在迅速变化的世界中识别动物种群的风险。 两名MSC学生，一名博士生和I，将确定冬季温度和降雪影响越多的卵阶段的生存的机制，以及其生存的程度解释了年度人口增长或下降的差异。我们将在夏末使用实验性种植鸡蛋，并在整个冬季的间隔恢复，以确定冷冬季冬季影响其生存的机制。我们将使用高分辨率的卫星图像和地面延时摄影来量化整个草地上的积雪覆盖，并在我们的卵种植中专门量化。结果将推断到该物种的地理范围，以确定冬季天气在定义其分布边界方面的作用，以及导致其地理范围内变化的潜力。 结果将确定这些人群是否面临着改变气候的风险，还是通过形态学，行为或生理学来足够适应性地适应，以减轻未来预期的温暖，变化更大且较少的下雪冬天。