Weather extremes and insect population dynamics

极端天气和昆虫种群动态

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-04374
• 负责人: Roland, Jens
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=711020
• 关键词: Weather; extremes; insect; population; dynamics

In this proposal, I examine the way in which extreme weather and changing climate affect long-term dynamics of the alpine Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. This proposal builds on long-term study of this butterfly (since 1995) examining the effects of rising treeline on loss and increased isolation of these small populations, and of general climate variability. We know that populations have limited dispersal ability, and that their population dynamics are affected most by over-winter weather. Populations decline in years with either extreme warm or extreme cold winters, particularly in years when there is little snow. Because alpine butterflies live in small isolated habitats, have limited dispersal, and are subject to extreme weather events, they serve as an excellent model system for identifying the risks to animal populations in a rapidly changing world. Two MSc students, one PhD student, and I, will identify the mechanisms by which winter temperatures and snowfall affect survival of the over-wintering egg stage, and the degree to which their survival explains variation in annual population growth or decline. We will use experimental planting' of eggs in late summer, and their recovery at intervals through the winter to determine mechanisms by which cold and hot winters affect their survival. We will use high-resolution satellite imagery and ground-based time-lapse photography to quantify snow cover across the meadows generally, and in our egg planting' experimental plots specifically. Results will be extrapolated to the geographic range of this species in an effort to determine the role of winter weather in defining the boundary of their distribution, and the potential for causing shifts in their geographic range. Results will determine whether these populations are at risk to changing climates or that P. smintheus butterflies are sufficiently adaptable via morphology, behaviour or physiology, to mitigate the anticipated warmer, more variable, and less snowy winters in future.

在本提案中，我研究了极端天气和气候变化如何影响加拿大落基山脉高山阿波罗蝴蝶（Parnassius smintheus）的长期动态。该提案建立在对这种蝴蝶的长期研究（自 1995 年以来）的基础上，研究林线上升对这些小种群的损失和孤立程度的增加以及总体气候变化的影响。我们知道，种群的扩散能力有限，其种群动态受越冬天气的影响最大。在冬季极端温暖或极端寒冷的年份，尤其是少雪的年份，种群数量会下降。由于高山蝴蝶生活在狭小的孤立栖息地，扩散有限，并且容易受到极端天气事件的影响，因此它们可以作为一个极好的模型系统，用于识别快速变化的世界中动物种群面临的风险。 两名硕士生、一名博士生和我将确定冬季气温和降雪影响越冬卵阶段存活的机制，以及它们的存活在多大程度上解释了每年种群增长或下降的变化。我们将在夏末对卵进行实验种植，并在整个冬季定期进行恢复，以确定寒冷和炎热的冬季影响其生存的机制。我们将使用高分辨率卫星图像和地面延时摄影来量化整个草地的积雪，特别是我们的鸡蛋种植实验区的积雪。结果将外推到该物种的地理范围，以确定冬季天气在定义其分布边界方面的作用，以及导致其地理范围发生变化的可能性。 结果将确定这些种群是否面临气候变化的风险，或者 P. smintheus 蝴蝶是否能够通过形态、行为或生理学充分适应，以缓解未来预期的温暖、多变和少雪的冬季。