Rare Event Simulation: Protecting vital infrastructure from flood extremes

罕见事件模拟：保护重要基础设施免受极端洪水影响

• 批准号: DP240101365
• 负责人: Prof Ashish Sharma
• 金额: $ 27.57万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2024-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP240101365
• 关键词: Rare; Event; Simulation; Protecting; vital

This research aims to develop Rare Event Simulation to quantify the future risk of very rare to extreme floods. Expected outcomes include a framework for the design and maintenance of critical Civil Engineering infrastructure such as dams, extrapolation of extreme storm events beyond the observed record, and an assessment of change in rare flood risk across Australia. The significance of this world-first research lies in adapting rare event simulation techniques that have only been applied to computer system failure before, to water engineering design. With Australian riverine flooding projected to cause $170 billion in losses by 2050, the benefit of this proposal in reducing future infrastructure damage costs and liability is overwhelming.

这项研究旨在开发罕见事件模拟，以量化非常罕见到极端洪水的未来风险。预期成果包括设计和维护水坝等关键土木工程基础设施的框架、超出观测记录的极端风暴事件的推断，以及对澳大利亚罕见洪水风险变化的评估。这项世界首创研究的意义在于将以前仅应用于计算机系统故障的罕见事件模拟技术应用于水利工程设计。预计到 2050 年，澳大利亚河流洪水将造成 1700 亿美元的损失，因此该提案在减少未来基础设施损坏成本和责任方面的好处是巨大的。