Assessing Water Supply Security in a Nonstationary Environment

评估非固定环境中的供水安全

• 批准号: DP200101326
• 负责人: Prof Ashish Sharma
• 金额: $ 24.21万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2024-12-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP200101326
• 关键词: Assessing; Water; Supply; Security; Nonstationary

About 25% of the global population currently has inadequate access to safe and secure water. This number is expected to rise to 50% by 2050 due to increased populations and reduced river flows. While a visible water crisis (such as the one in Cape Town in 2018) can culminate in the funding of new water supply infrastructure, a planned push for infrastructure augmentation often stalls due to contradictory projections of how much water will be available in the future. To address this, a novel alternative for assessing water security is proposed. Our approach assesses change using historical information on river flow and water demand, adapting these to form projections that exhibit greater reliability than currently existing alternatives.

目前，全球约 25% 的人口无法充分获得安全可靠的水。由于人口增加和河流流量减少，预计到 2050 年这一数字将上升至 50%。虽然明显的水危机（例如 2018 年开普敦的水危机）可能最终导致为新的供水基础设施提供资金，但由于对未来可用水量的预测相互矛盾，计划中的基础设施扩建往往会陷入停滞。为了解决这个问题，提出了一种评估水安全的新替代方案。我们的方法使用河流流量和需水量的历史信息来评估变化，并调整这些信息以形成比当前现有替代方案更可靠的预测。