Risk-Based Models for Infrastructure Asset Management

基于风险的基础设施资产管理模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-03963
• 负责人: Pandey, Mahesh
• 金额: $ 3.03万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=708458
• 关键词: Risk; Based; Models; Infrastructure; Asset

Canada, like other industrialized nations, devoted a large part of the 20th century into building modern infrastructure systems, such as power plants, pipelines, electrical networks, bridges, water distribution and waste-disposal systems. These technologically advanced infrastructure systems boosted productivity and prosperity, and led to an unprecedented level of quality of life in Canada. In the era of new-build, mainstream researchers focused on developing mechanistic models, design standards and construction technology. In the 21st century, however, the emerging challenge is how to manage the safety and reliability of the aged infrastructure systems, given that their immediate replacement or refurbishment is not possible due to the inordinate amount of required resources. In the absence of timely mitigation of deterioration, the risk of failures is bound to increase, as evidenced by the collapse of an overpass in Laval (September 30th, 2006) and a tunnel in Montreal (August 1, 2011). Therefore, safety management requires not only on an accurate prediction of deterioration, but also a timely investment in repair and maintenance actions. In addition, prudent operational management and prediction of hazards are equally important. The recent train disaster (July 6, 2013) in Lac-Megantic illustrates the need for minimizing risks through careful operational management of infrastructure systems. Furthermore, the Fukushima earthquake in March 2011 that destroyed a nuclear power plant and many other structures, underscores the need for accurate estimation of extreme hazards.  Thus, the degraded infrastructure combined with the increased frequency of extreme events (rain, flood, wind and ice storms) is emerging as a threat to the economic development and quality of life in Canada. As a result, the economic life cycle management of infrastructure assets supported by high quality assessment of emerging risks is a critical area of research that is to be undertaken in the proposed research program.. At the core of managing structural safety is the ability to predict degradation, which is an intrinsically random process marred with temporal and sampling uncertainties. For example, stress corrosion cracking and fatigue causing the sudden failure of components are known to exhibit large uncertainties even in controlled laboratory tests. The proposed research will undertake comprehensive probabilistic modeling of such degradation mechanisms. This work will be integrated with an life cycle management to optimize the inspection, maintenance and refurbishment programs.    In summary, the next five year phase of this research program will continue to build on the success of the previous research work and discover new methods and tools for advanced risk analysis and management of infrastructure that will foster the safety, economic development, and quality of life in the Canadian society.

与其他工业化国家一样，加拿大在 20 世纪投入了大量时间建设现代基础设施系统，例如发电厂、管道、电网、桥梁、供水和废物处理系统，这些技术先进的基础设施系统提高了生产力和繁荣。 ，并导致加拿大的生活质量达到前所未有的水平。在新建时代，主流研究人员专注于开发机械模型、设计标准和施工技术。 然而，在 21 世纪，新出现的挑战是如何管理老化基础设施系统的安全性和可靠性，因为由于所需资源过多而无法及时缓解这些问题，因此无法立即更换或翻新这些系统。拉瓦尔的立交桥（2006 年 9 月 30 日）和蒙特利尔的隧道（2006 年 8 月 1 日）倒塌就是证明，故障的风险必然会增加。因此，安全管理不仅需要对恶化情况进行准确预测，还需要及时投资于维修和维护行动，此外，谨慎的运营管理和对最近发生的列车事故的预测也同样重要。 Lac-Megantic 的研究（2013 年）说明了通过对基础设施系统进行仔细的运营管理来最大限度地降低风险的必要性。此外，2011 年 3 月发生的福岛地震摧毁了一座核电站和许多其他建筑物，这凸显了通过对基础设施系统进行仔细的运营管理来最大限度地降低风险的必要性。准确估计极端危险。 因此，基础设施的退化和极端事件（降雨、洪水、风和冰暴）频率的增加正在对加拿大的经济发展和生活质量构成威胁。因此，基础设施的经济生命周期管理。由新兴风险的高质量评估支持的资产是拟议研究计划中要进行的一个关键研究领域。 管理结构安全的核心是预测退化的能力，这是一个本质上随机的过程，存在时间和采样的不确定性，例如，导致部件突然失效的应力腐蚀开裂和疲劳，即使在受控的情况下也会表现出很大的不确定性。拟议的研究将对这种退化机制进行全面的概率建模，这项工作将与生命周期管理相结合，以优化检查、维护和翻新计划。   总之，该研究计划的下一个五年阶段将继续以先前研究工作的成功为基础，探索用于基础设施高级风险分析和管理的新方法和工具，从而促进安全、经济发展和质量。加拿大社会的生活。