Risk-Based Models for Infrastructure Asset Management

基于风险的基础设施资产管理模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-03963
• 负责人: Pandey, Mahesh
• 金额: $ 3.03万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=661461
• 关键词: Risk; Based; Models; Infrastructure; Asset

Canada, like other industrialized nations, devoted a large part of the 20th century into building modern infrastructure systems, such as power plants, pipelines, electrical networks, bridges, water distribution and waste-disposal systems. These technologically advanced infrastructure systems boosted productivity and prosperity, and led to an unprecedented level of quality of life in Canada. In the era of new-build, mainstream researchers focused on developing mechanistic models, design standards and construction technology. ***In the 21st century, however, the emerging challenge is how to manage the safety and reliability of the aged infrastructure systems, given that their immediate replacement or refurbishment is not possible due to the inordinate amount of required resources. In the absence of timely mitigation of deterioration, the risk of failures is bound to increase, as evidenced by the collapse of an overpass in Laval (September 30th, 2006) and a tunnel in Montreal (August 1, 2011). Therefore, safety management requires not only on an accurate prediction of deterioration, but also a timely investment in repair and maintenance actions. In addition, prudent operational management and prediction of hazards are equally important. The recent train disaster (July 6, 2013) in Lac-Megantic illustrates the need for minimizing risks through careful operational management of infrastructure systems. Furthermore, the Fukushima earthquake in March 2011 that destroyed a nuclear power plant and many other structures, underscores the need for accurate estimation of extreme hazards. ******Thus, the degraded infrastructure combined with the increased frequency of extreme events (rain, flood, wind and ice storms) is emerging as a threat to the economic development and quality of life in Canada. As a result, the economic life cycle management of infrastructure assets supported by high quality assessment of emerging risks is a critical area of research that is to be undertaken in the proposed research program.. ******At the core of managing structural safety is the ability to predict degradation, which is an intrinsically random process marred with temporal and sampling uncertainties. For example, stress corrosion cracking and fatigue causing the sudden failure of components are known to exhibit large uncertainties even in controlled laboratory tests. The proposed research will undertake comprehensive probabilistic modeling of such degradation mechanisms. This work will be integrated with an life cycle management to optimize the inspection, maintenance and refurbishment programs. ***  ***In summary, the next five year phase of this research program will continue to build on the success of the previous research work and discover new methods and tools for advanced risk analysis and management of infrastructure that will foster the safety, economic development, and quality of life in the Canadian society. **

加拿大与其他工业化国家一样，将20世纪的很大一部分部署到建设现代基础设施系统中，例如发电厂，管道，电网，桥梁，水分分配和废物污染系统。这些技术先进的基础设施系统提高了生产力和繁荣，并导致了加拿大前所未有的生活质量。在新建时代，主流研究人员致力于开发机械模型，设计标准和建筑技术。 ***然而，在21世纪，新兴的挑战是如何管理老年基础设施系统的安全性和可靠性，因为由于其所需的资源量过多，因此无法立即更换或翻新。在没有及时缓解定义的情况下，失败的风险必将增加，这可以从Laval的立交桥崩溃（2006年9月30日）和蒙特利尔的一条隧道（2011年8月1日）。因此，安全管理不仅需要确定的准确预测，还需要对维修和维护措施进行及时的投资。此外，审慎的操作管理和危害预测同样重要。 Lac-Megantic Illustrators最近的火车灾难（2013年7月6日）通过仔细的基础设施系统运营管理来最大程度地降低风险。此外，2011年3月的福岛地震摧毁了核电厂和许多其他结构，强调了对极端危害的准确估算的必要性。结果，由高质量评估的新兴风险评估支持的基础设施资产的经济生命周期管理是在拟议的研究计划中进行的关键研究领域。.*****在管理结构安全的核心是预测降级的能力，这是一个固有的随机过程，这是一个暂时的随机过程，并具有暂时的和采样的不可分割。例如，即使在受控的实验室测试中，也已知造成组件突然失败的应力腐蚀破裂和疲劳，从而表现出很大的不确定性。拟议的研究将对此类降解机制进行全面的概率建模。这项工作将与生命周期管理集成，以优化检查，维护和翻新计划。 ***总而言之，该研究计划的下一个五年阶段将继续以先前的研究工作的成功为基础，并发现新的方法和工具，用于高级风险分析和基础设施的管理，以促进加拿大社会的安全，经济发展和生活质量。 **