Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

解锁预测爆发性火山活动和预测其对气候影响之间的联系

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03786
• 负责人: Jellinek, Andrew
• 金额: $ 4.23万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=690830
• 关键词: Unlocking; links; between; predicting; explosive

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.******Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: ******Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? ******Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes?******Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.**

自从AD上的庞贝（AD）销毁79名阶级主义者和科学家，几代人的经济后果。在1300年至1850年之间，欧洲的巨大爆炸式下降，现在最好将其视为一种与环境相关的Consusequel气候效应，特别集中在太平洋地区，这使与2010年活动相关的不安情绪更加不安。 ，关于火山喷发的动力学和遥感研究动态的理论和计算研究，该提案将在两个主要主题问题上制定关键的计划：******，火山喷发调节甚至可以通过Poth调节千年变异性在“小冰河时代”中发生的欧洲饥荒，戏剧性的社会社会饥荒是危险的爆发吗？分辨率和理解与粒子流体混合物的动力学有关的小规模过程，并识别其在不同的地球物理数据中的表达。 2012/13年度约翰·埃文斯（John Evans）领导基金支持的地球系统（CGMES）在2015/2016年开放的最先进的流体动力学实验室（GFDL）的结构在所有感兴趣的范围内混合粒子的过程。在工作的各个方面，第三，第三和第四年（即论文）水平。