Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

解锁预测爆发性火山活动和预测其对气候影响之间的联系

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03786
• 负责人: Jellinek, Andrew
• 金额: $ 4.23万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=654577
• 关键词: Unlocking; links; between; predicting; explosive

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.******Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: ******Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? ******Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes?******Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.**

自公元 79 年庞贝古城被毁以来，毁灭性的火山碎屑流所带来的火山灾害一直吸引着几代科学家和非科学家的关注和想象。长期存在的火山灰云对全球经济的影响与相对较小的火山灰云有关。然而，2010 年春天的埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖喷发让全世界措手不及，这表明我们对喷发动力学的理解存在差距，也给人类工作带来了新的挑战。评估日益全球化的世界中的风险。1300年至1850年间导致欧洲饥荒和相关人口大量减少的小冰河期现在最好的解释是与广泛的火山活动（尤其集中在太平洋地区）相关的新气候影响的结果。 rim 使与 2010 年事件相关的不安变得更加尖锐。 *****通过 12 项任务，涉及火山喷发动力学的新颖方面以及互补领域的实验、理论和计算研究和遥感研究，该提案将在两个主要主题问题上取得关键进展： ******火山喷发是否会调节甚至驱动百年至千年的气候变化，并可能产生严重的社会后果，例如欧洲发生的严重饥荒“小冰河时代”？ ******与喷发前岩浆流有关的地震是否是危险喷发的可靠前兆，这些动态是否表现在喷发的行为和沉积物上羽流？********每个主题问题的进展都面临着解决和理解与颗粒-流体混合物动力学相关的小规模过程的挑战，以及识别它们在各种地质和地球物理数据中的表达。除了最近建立的定量现场研究记录外，我的实验地质流体力学项目的持续成功推动了最先进的 EOAS 地球物理流体动力学实验室 (GFDL) 的建设，该实验室成立了。在2012/13 年，并为 2015/2016 年成功建立 CFI 约翰·埃文斯领导基金支持的地球系统地球物理混合中心 (CGMES) 奠定了基础，CGMES 包括致力于解决含颗粒流混合过程的关键基础设施。这项工作利用了这些能力以及我在火山学、地球动力学、地幔-气候耦合、行星科学和地球系统科学方面的丰富经验。将培训 5 名博士生和 2 名硕士生，以识别和解决前沿科学问题，并使用各种创新的技术方法开展工作。此外，我将在第二年、第三年和第四年让 10-15 名本科生参与（即论文）。 ）工作各个方面的水平。**