Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

解锁预测爆发性火山活动和预测其对气候影响之间的联系

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03786
• 负责人: Jellinek, Andrew
• 金额: $ 4.23万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=654577
• 关键词: Unlocking; links; between; predicting; explosive; Unlocking; links; between; predicting; explosive

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.******Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: ******Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? ******Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes?******Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.**

自从AD 79中庞贝破坏以来，以毁灭性的火山碎屑流的形式进行了火山危害，已经吸引了世代相传的科学家和非科学家的注意力和想象力。然而，长寿的灰云的全球经济后果与2010年春季相对较小的Eyjafjallajökull爆发有关，但是，在越来越多的全球化世界中，我们对喷发动力学的理解以及对评估风险的新挑战表现出了差距。现在，欧洲的少量冰河时代在1300年至1850年之间导致了欧洲的广泛人口下降，现在最好是由于与广泛的爆炸性火山相关的新型气候效应的结果，特别集中在太平洋界限周围的广泛爆炸性火山症相关，使与2010年事件相关的不安全变得更加敏锐。提案将在两个主要主题问题上取得关键的进展：*****火山喷发会调节甚至将百年纪念驱动到千年气候变异性，并可能带来巨大的社会后果，例如在“小冰河时代”中发生的欧洲大饥荒？ *****是否与危险喷发的爆发前的可靠前体相关的地震震动是否相关？我的实验室是独特的，可以取得进步。除了确定的定量现场研究记录外，我的实验地质流体力学计划的持续成功融合了最先进的EOOAS地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL），该实验室（GFDL）于2012/13年开放，该实验室在2012/13年开放，并建立了成功的CFI John Evans Leadersity Funding fraditive-Supply-supplation System for Geopport for Geopport的基础（Geopport）的基础。 2015/2016。 CGME包括关键的基础设施，用于在所有感兴趣的范围内解决含量的粒子流中的混合过程。该提议利用这些能力以及我在火山学，地球动力学，地幔气候耦合，行星科学和地球系统科学方面既定的经验。这项工作将培训5名博士生和2名MSC学生，以识别和解决最前沿的科学问题，并使用各种各样的创新技术方法进行工作。此外，我将在工作的各个方面都在第二年，第三年和第四年（即论文）介入10至15名本科生。**