Fire weather and fuel moisture controls on wildfire activity - present and future.

火灾天气和燃料湿度对野火活动的控制——现在和未来。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04859
• 负责人: Flannigan, Mike
• 金额: $ 3.73万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=690292
• 关键词: Fire; weather; fuel; moisture; controls

On average, 7,000 wildland fires burn about 2.5 million ha (about half the size of Nova Scotia) every year. Canadian fire management agencies spend $800 million protecting communities and economic interests including our forests. Fire management is a major aspect of forest management. Currently, Canadian fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to determine wildland fire danger. A key component of the CFFDRS system is the Fire Weather Index (FWI) System that takes daily observations of air temperature, 24 hour precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed to derive the fuel moisture of fine fuels, the duff layer as well as deeper organic material. Fuel moisture is the most important factor that determines if a fire will ignite and spread and how intense the fire will be. ******My long-term objectives are to continue to explore the relationships between weather, vegetation(fuel) and wildfire. In the short term, I am proposing to address four objectives related to my long-term objective. The first objective will use machine learning/artificial intelligence to identify and forecast severe fire weather episodes over western Canada. The second objective will address global changes in fuel moisture until the end of this century using multiple global climate models and multiple climate change scenarios. In particular, exceedances of key threshold fuel moisture values that determine ignition and active spread will be examined. The third objective will determine if there is a trend towards more high intensity fires during the night using infrared satellite data. The fourth objective will model how climate-change altered diurnal temperature and associated relative humidity changes will modify fuel moisture and how this will affect fire behaviour in the future. All these studies will contribute to enhance fire management today and in the future to better protect Canadians and their interests.********

平均每年有7,000个野外大火燃烧约250万公顷（大约是新斯科舍省的一半）。加拿大消防管理机构花费了8亿加元来保护包括我们森林在内的社区和经济利益。消防管理是森林管理的主要方面。目前，加拿大消防管理机构使用加拿大森林火灾危险评级系统（CFFDRS）来确定Wildland Fire危险。 CFFDRS系统的关键组成部分是火灾天气指数（FWI）系统，该系统每天观察空气温度，24小时降水，相对湿度和风速，以得出细燃料的燃油湿度，DUFF层以及更深的有机材料。燃料湿度是决定火势是否会点燃和蔓延以及火势的最重要因素。 *****我的长期目标是继续探索天气，植被（燃料）和野火之间的关系。在短期内，我建议解决与我的长期目标有关的四个目标。第一个目标将使用机器学习/人工智能来识别和预测加拿大西部的严重火灾天气事件。第二个目标将使用多种全球气候模型和多种气候变化方案来解决燃料水分的全球变化。特别是，将检查确定点火和主动差的关键阈值燃油湿度值的超出。第三个目标将确定使用红外卫星数据在夜间是否存在更高强度大火的趋势。第四个目标将模拟气候变化改变的昼夜温度和相关的相对湿度变化将如何改变燃料水分，以及这将如何影响将来的火灾行为。所有这些研究将有助于加强当今和将来的消防管理，以更好地保护加拿大人及其利益。********