Understanding and Projecting Change in the Marine Environment on Intraseasonal and Climate Time Scales

了解和预测海洋环境在季节内和气候时间尺度上的变化

• 批准号: 42414-2013
• 负责人: Thompson, Keith
• 金额: $ 2.91万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=688143
• 关键词: Understanding; Projecting; Change; Marine; Environment

The goal of the research is to better understand how the atmosphere and ocean interact on time scales of days to a season, and project how the ocean may change over the next hundred years. This goal will be reached by the synergistic application of new statistical methods and dynamically-based models of the ocean. The research will focus primarily on physical variables but the impact of ocean changes on the spatial distribution and migration of several marine species will be examined.The research is organized under two themes. The first theme focuses on the marine impacts of climate change. It includes the projection of coastal flooding, and also the projection of ocean temperature, salinity and circulation to local scales (downscaling) and their influence on the distribution and movement of marine animals. An important goal of this theme is to quantify uncertainty in the projections of physical change and their impacts. The second theme focuses on global modes of variability of the atmosphere-ocean system on time scales of days to a season. It will be based primarily on observations but will use dynamical models to interpret the results.The proposed research is of both practical and scientific significance. It will lead to more realistic projections of the probability of coastal flooding over the next century that explicitly take into account the uncertainty in future global sea level and storminess. The results will be of practical interest to coastal engineers, coastal managers and policy makers. The downscaling of projections of ocean conditions will give a better understanding of the local expression of global change. The empirical associations between global scale patterns of atmosphere-ocean variables, and their interpretation in terms of physical mechanisms, will be useful in extending the useful range of subseasonal forecast systems.

该研究的目的是更好地了解大气和海洋如何按日期的时间尺度相互作用，并预测海洋在未来百年中如何变化。 This goal will be reached by the synergistic application of new statistical methods and dynamically-based models of the ocean. 该研究将主要关注物理变量，但是将研究海洋变化对几种海洋物种的空间分布和迁移的影响。研究是在两个主题下进行的。第一个主题着重于气候变化的海洋影响。它包括沿海洪水的投影，还包括海洋温度，盐度和循环到局部尺度（缩小）的投影及其对海洋动物分布和运动的影响。该主题的一个重要目标是量化物理变化及其影响的预测中的不确定性。第二个主题集中在一个季节的时间尺度上，集中于大气 - 海洋系统变异性的全球变化模式。它将主要基于观察结果，但将使用动态模型来解释结果。拟议的研究既实用又具有科学意义。 It will lead to more realistic projections of the probability of coastal flooding over the next century that explicitly take into account the uncertainty in future global sea level and storminess.沿海工程师，沿海经理和政策制定者将具有实际利益。海洋状况投射的降低将使人们更好地了解全球变化的当地表达。 The empirical associations between global scale patterns of atmosphere-ocean variables, and their interpretation in terms of physical mechanisms, will be useful in extending the useful range of subseasonal forecast systems.