Risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments

恶劣环境下基于风险的多主体模拟优化泄漏响应管理 (RMASOS) 方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05345
• 负责人: Chen, Bing
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=682750
• 关键词: Risk; based; multi; agent; simulation

Offshore oil spills can not only cause significantly negative impacts on the environment and socio-economy but constitutes a direct hazard to marine life and human health. It is reported that in the last decade over 1 billion gallons of oil spilled worldwide and 6 million t/yr entered the oceans. Over 20 years passed after the Exxon Valdez spill, the significant efforts have been made to study oil spills and improve response practices; however, it is obviously not enough to match the steps of oil and gas development. The 2010 BP oil spill is shaping up to be one of the largest offshore oil spills and an ecological nightmare, disclosing the disturbing fact of unpreparedness of industry and governments to major spills as well as the pressing needs in oil spill research. Even though the policy or regulations focusing on framework or infrastructure is relative consummate, inadequate decision support can be one of the major reasons that embarrassed the efficiency of response process. Furthermore, such situation is challenged by harsh environments (e.g., cold water/weather, strong wind, rough wave, and sea ice) that are prevailing in the offshore areas of Arctic and Northern Atlantic oceans. Oil spills are more problematical in such environments due to the fragile ecosystems and the logistic challenges and thus, more dynamic, efficient response decision support is much desired. Given the increasing spill risks caused by the fast growth of energy industries in northern Canada, it becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve knowledge bases and technical capacities of spill responses in harsh environments.To help address the challenges and meet the needs, the short-term goals of this proposed research program are a) to develop a set of risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for offshore oil spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments, and b) to conduct lab and field tests to understand and simulate response processes, as well as validate and demonstrate the developed approaches. The long-term goals are: a) to grow the current research & training program into a more active, world-class one in spill responses & decision making in harsh environments; and b) by advancing scientific bases and generating engineering solutions to fill up the gaps and help address the long-term pressing needs of improving response capability and effectiveness. To achieve the these goals, the key tasks include: 1) Oil spill risk assessment and mapping; 2) Experimental tests and modeling of oil weathering and movement; 3) Simulation-based screening of response technologies; 4) Experimental simulation and modeling of skimming; 5) Risk-based simulation-optimization coupling for resources allocation and operation optimization; 6) Response decision support based on multi-agent aided simulation-optimization; and 7) Field tests and demonstration. The proposed research program and the expected outcomes should be able to 1) help fill the knowledge and technical gaps, 2) contribute to significant advance of environmental emergency and decision making research, and 3) directly address urgent and critical needs (particularly raised by the 2010 BP oil spill) in improving emergency response capacity of governments and industries in Canada and beyond. The program will be the first of its kind in Canada targeting offshore oil spill responses in harsh environments. Unique multi-disciplinary environments will also be created for training of HQP and collaborative research opportunities for researchers. The research would bring significant short-/long-term benefits to industry, government and communities and help mitigate the risks posed by accidental pollution to the marine and coastal ecosystems.

海上石油漏油不仅会对环境和社会经济产生重大负面影响，而且对海洋生物和人类健康构成了直接危害。据报道，在过去十年中，全球超过10亿加仑的石油溢出，而600万吨/年进入了海洋。在埃克森·瓦尔迪兹（Exxon Valdez）泄漏之后，已有20多年的历史了，已经为研究漏油和改善反应实践做出了重大努力。但是，这显然不足以匹配石油和天然气开发的步骤。 2010年BP石油漏油事件正在塑造为最大的海上石油漏油事件之一，并且是一场生态噩梦，揭示了行业和政府不准备的令人不安的事实，向重大溢出以及溢油研究的紧迫需求。尽管关注框架或基础设施的政策或法规相对完善，但决策支持不足也可能是使响应过程效率感到尴尬的主要原因之一。此外，在北极和北大西洋近海地区，这种情况受到严峻的环境（例如，冷水/天气，强风，巨浪和海冰）的挑战。由于脆弱的生态系统和后勤挑战，在这种环境中，漏油事件更加问题，因此，非常需要更具动态，有效的响应决策支持。 Given the increasing spill risks caused by the fast growth of energy industries in northern Canada, it becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve knowledge bases and technical capacities of spill responses in harsh environments.To help address the challenges and meet the needs, the short-term goals of this proposed research program are a) to develop a set of risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for offshore oil spill response management (RMASOS) in恶劣的环境以及b）进行实验室和现场测试以了解和模拟响应过程，并验证和演示开发的方法。长期目标是：a）将当前的研究和培训计划发展为一个在恶劣环境中的溢出响应和决策中更为活跃的世界一流的目标； b）通过推进科学基础并生成工程解决方案来填补空白，并帮助满足提高响应能力和有效性的长期紧迫需求。为了实现这些目标，关键任务包括：1）漏油风险评估和制图； 2）油风化和运动的实验测试和建模； 3）基于仿真的响应技术筛选； 4）略读的实验模拟和建模； 5）基于风险的模拟优化耦合，用于资源分配和运营优化； 6）基于多机构辅助模拟优化的响应决策支持； 7）现场测试和演示。拟议的研究计划和预期的结果应能够达到1）帮助填补知识和技术空白，2）有助于在环境紧急情况和决策研究方面有重大进步，以及3）直接满足紧急和关键需求（尤其是2010年BP石油漏油事件），以改善加拿大政府和行业的紧急响应能力。该计划将是加拿大的第一个此类计划，以恶劣的环境中的海上溢油响应为目标。还将创建独特的多学科环境，以培训HQP和研究人员的协作研究机会。这项研究将为工业，政府和社区带来巨大的短期/长期利益，并有助于减轻对海洋和沿海生态系统意外污染带来的风险。