Risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments

恶劣环境下基于风险的多主体模拟优化泄漏响应管理 (RMASOS) 方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05345
• 负责人: Chen, Bing
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=682750
• 关键词: Risk; based; multi; agent; simulation

Offshore oil spills can not only cause significantly negative impacts on the environment and socio-economy but constitutes a direct hazard to marine life and human health. It is reported that in the last decade over 1 billion gallons of oil spilled worldwide and 6 million t/yr entered the oceans. Over 20 years passed after the Exxon Valdez spill, the significant efforts have been made to study oil spills and improve response practices; however, it is obviously not enough to match the steps of oil and gas development. The 2010 BP oil spill is shaping up to be one of the largest offshore oil spills and an ecological nightmare, disclosing the disturbing fact of unpreparedness of industry and governments to major spills as well as the pressing needs in oil spill research. Even though the policy or regulations focusing on framework or infrastructure is relative consummate, inadequate decision support can be one of the major reasons that embarrassed the efficiency of response process. Furthermore, such situation is challenged by harsh environments (e.g., cold water/weather, strong wind, rough wave, and sea ice) that are prevailing in the offshore areas of Arctic and Northern Atlantic oceans. Oil spills are more problematical in such environments due to the fragile ecosystems and the logistic challenges and thus, more dynamic, efficient response decision support is much desired. Given the increasing spill risks caused by the fast growth of energy industries in northern Canada, it becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve knowledge bases and technical capacities of spill responses in harsh environments.To help address the challenges and meet the needs, the short-term goals of this proposed research program are a) to develop a set of risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for offshore oil spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments, and b) to conduct lab and field tests to understand and simulate response processes, as well as validate and demonstrate the developed approaches. The long-term goals are: a) to grow the current research & training program into a more active, world-class one in spill responses & decision making in harsh environments; and b) by advancing scientific bases and generating engineering solutions to fill up the gaps and help address the long-term pressing needs of improving response capability and effectiveness. To achieve the these goals, the key tasks include: 1) Oil spill risk assessment and mapping; 2) Experimental tests and modeling of oil weathering and movement; 3) Simulation-based screening of response technologies; 4) Experimental simulation and modeling of skimming; 5) Risk-based simulation-optimization coupling for resources allocation and operation optimization; 6) Response decision support based on multi-agent aided simulation-optimization; and 7) Field tests and demonstration. The proposed research program and the expected outcomes should be able to 1) help fill the knowledge and technical gaps, 2) contribute to significant advance of environmental emergency and decision making research, and 3) directly address urgent and critical needs (particularly raised by the 2010 BP oil spill) in improving emergency response capacity of governments and industries in Canada and beyond. The program will be the first of its kind in Canada targeting offshore oil spill responses in harsh environments. Unique multi-disciplinary environments will also be created for training of HQP and collaborative research opportunities for researchers. The research would bring significant short-/long-term benefits to industry, government and communities and help mitigate the risks posed by accidental pollution to the marine and coastal ecosystems.

海上石油泄漏不仅会对环境和社会经济造成重大负面影响，而且对海洋生物和人类健康构成直接危害。据报道，过去十年间，全球有超过10亿加仑的石油泄漏，每年有600万吨石油进入海洋。埃克森瓦尔迪兹漏油事件发生 20 多年来，人们在研究漏油事件和改进响应实践方面做出了巨大努力；但显然还不足以跟上油气开发的步伐。 2010 年英国石油公司 (BP) 漏油事件正在成为最大的海上漏油事件之一，也是一场生态噩梦，暴露了行业和政府对重大漏油事件准备不足的令人不安的事实，也暴露了漏油研究的迫切需要。尽管针对框架或基础设施的政策或法规相对完善，但决策支持不足可能是影响响应过程效率的主要原因之一。此外，这种情况还受到北冰洋和北大西洋近海地区普遍存在的恶劣环境（例如冷水/天气、强风、巨浪和海冰）的挑战。由于脆弱的生态系统和后勤挑战，在这种环境中石油泄漏问题更加严重，因此非常需要更加动态、高效的响应决策支持。鉴于加拿大北部能源工业的快速增长导致的溢油风险日益增加，开发新的方法、提高恶劣环境下溢油应急响应的知识库和技术能力变得尤为重要和紧迫，以帮助应对挑战并满足需求，该拟议研究计划的短期目标是a）开发一套基于风险的多主体模拟优化方法，用于恶劣环境下的海上溢油响应管理（RMASOS），b）在实验室和现场进行还可以通过测试来理解和模拟响应过程验证和展示所开发的方法。长期目标是： a) 将当前的研究和培训项目发展成为在恶劣环境下的泄漏响应和决策方面更加活跃、世界一流的项目； b) 通过推进科学基础并制定工程解决方案来填补空白并帮助解决提高响应能力和有效性的长期紧迫需求。为实现这些目标，关键任务包括： 1）溢油风险评估和绘图； 2）石油风化和运动的实验测试和建模； 3）基于模拟的响应技术筛选； 4）撇读实验模拟与建模； 5）基于风险的模拟优化耦合，用于资源配置和运营优化； 6）基于多智能体辅助仿真优化的响应决策支持； 7) 现场测试和演示。拟议的研究计划和预期成果应能够：1）帮助填补知识和技术空白，2）有助于环境应急和决策研究的重大进展，3）直接解决紧急和关键需求（特别是由2010 年英国石油公司漏油事件），以提高加拿大及其他地区政府和行业的应急响应能力。该计划将是加拿大首个针对恶劣环境下海上漏油应急响应的此类计划。还将创建独特的多学科环境，用于培训 HQP 和为研究人员提供合作研究机会。该研究将为工业界、政府和社区带来重大的短期/长期利益，并有助于减轻意外污染对海洋和沿海生态系统造成的风险。