Ecological and epidemiological modelling across multiple spatial scales

跨多个空间尺度的生态和流行病学建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05466
• 负责人: Arino, Julien
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=682286
• 关键词: Ecological; epidemiological; modelling; across; multiple

I propose to consider the formulation and mathematical and computational analysis of coupled mathematical models operating across distinct spatial scales, with each model describing the movement patterns and resulting range of the different species interacting in competition for resources, prey-predator relationships or the transmission of an infectious pathogen.******Indeed, when considering interactions between two or more species, it is common that the species involved occupy and move through space in very different ways. For instance, competition for resources can involve migrating and non-migrating species; the range of many predators far exceeds the range of their prey species; and in vector-borne diseases, hosts are typically highly mobile while vectors have very small ranges. ******It is therefore important to formulate methodologies to deal with these varying ranges. This will be achieved by considering different model types (ordinary or partial differential equations, discrete or continuous Markov chains, network models), each suitable for the description of the range and movement of a given species, with coupling terms to describe local interactions between species.******To understand the different types of couplings that can occur, I will work with three examples for which I have access to data.***1. Annual migration of the purple martin (P. subis) between North America and its overwintering site in Brazil. The data for this problem comes from K. Fraser (University of Manitoba).***2. Utilization of a stock of snow crabs (C. opilio) in Atlantic Canada. The fishing fleet divides itself between cooperative and competitive groups. The data for this problem comes from D. Gillis (University of Manitoba).***3. Spread of malaria in and between the Comoros Islands. Through a collaboration with C. Rogier (Service de Santé des Armées, France), I have data on the spread of several strains of P. falciparum, the causative parasite of malaria, between the five islands in the archipelago. Information is also available about human movement between the islands and about vector densities.******These examples will require different combinations of model types: discrete and continuous time deterministic in the case of P. subis, continuous time deterministic and stochastic in the case of C. opilio and a combination of discrete and continuous deterministic and stochastic in the case of P. falciparum. From these different examples, I will derive general principles that govern the use and coupling of models of different types. I will consider the mathematical analysis of such multiscale hybrid models and will devise computer code for their computational analysis.******This novel interdisciplinary program will train at least 10 HQP and will help reduce the gap between model- and data-based approaches in spatial ecology and epidemiology, providing a firm theoretic background to consider data driven problems in these fields.

我建议考虑耦合数学模型的数学和计算分析不同的空间LE，每个模型都在竞争中相互作用的不同物种的范围在资源或关系中相互作用或传播病原体的传播以不同的方式，对资源的竞争涉及迁移和非迁移的物种；制定方法来处理不同的范围，每个网络模型），适用于给定物种的范围和运动的描述，并用耦合术语来描述我的局部相互作用。访问数据。小组的问题来自D. gillis *** 3。关于群岛和媒介矢量之间的人类运动的菌株和群岛的菌株。 P.的情况下，在opilio的情况下，连续时间确定性和随机性，以及在p的情况下的离散和连续确定和随机的结合。不同的类型。 - 基于空间生态和流行病学的方法，提供了一个牢固的理论背景，以考虑数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据数据问题。