Ecological and epidemiological modelling across multiple spatial scales

跨多个空间尺度的生态和流行病学建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05466
• 负责人: Arino, Julien
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=644120
• 关键词: Ecological; epidemiological; modelling; across; multiple

I propose to consider the formulation and mathematical and computational analysis of coupled mathematical models operating across distinct spatial scales, with each model describing the movement patterns and resulting range of the different species interacting in competition for resources, prey-predator relationships or the transmission of an infectious pathogen.******Indeed, when considering interactions between two or more species, it is common that the species involved occupy and move through space in very different ways. For instance, competition for resources can involve migrating and non-migrating species; the range of many predators far exceeds the range of their prey species; and in vector-borne diseases, hosts are typically highly mobile while vectors have very small ranges. ******It is therefore important to formulate methodologies to deal with these varying ranges. This will be achieved by considering different model types (ordinary or partial differential equations, discrete or continuous Markov chains, network models), each suitable for the description of the range and movement of a given species, with coupling terms to describe local interactions between species.******To understand the different types of couplings that can occur, I will work with three examples for which I have access to data.***1. Annual migration of the purple martin (P. subis) between North America and its overwintering site in Brazil. The data for this problem comes from K. Fraser (University of Manitoba).***2. Utilization of a stock of snow crabs (C. opilio) in Atlantic Canada. The fishing fleet divides itself between cooperative and competitive groups. The data for this problem comes from D. Gillis (University of Manitoba).***3. Spread of malaria in and between the Comoros Islands. Through a collaboration with C. Rogier (Service de Santé des Armées, France), I have data on the spread of several strains of P. falciparum, the causative parasite of malaria, between the five islands in the archipelago. Information is also available about human movement between the islands and about vector densities.******These examples will require different combinations of model types: discrete and continuous time deterministic in the case of P. subis, continuous time deterministic and stochastic in the case of C. opilio and a combination of discrete and continuous deterministic and stochastic in the case of P. falciparum. From these different examples, I will derive general principles that govern the use and coupling of models of different types. I will consider the mathematical analysis of such multiscale hybrid models and will devise computer code for their computational analysis.******This novel interdisciplinary program will train at least 10 HQP and will help reduce the gap between model- and data-based approaches in spatial ecology and epidemiology, providing a firm theoretic background to consider data driven problems in these fields.

我建议考虑对跨不同空间量表运行的耦合数学模型的公式，数学和计算分析，每个模型描述了各种物种的运动模式和随之而来的不同物种相互作用的竞争竞争，猎物预言关系或传播病原体的传播。例如，资源竞争可能涉及迁移和非迁移物种；许多捕食者的范围远远超过其猎物物种的范围；在媒介传播的疾病中，宿主通常是高移动性的，而向量的范围很小。 *****因此，制定方法来处理这些不同的范围很重要。这将通过考虑不同的模型类型（普通或部分微分方程，离散或连续的马尔可夫链，网络模型）来实现，每种模型都适合描述给定物种的范围和运动，并具有耦合术语来描述物种之间的局部互动。北美及其在巴西越冬地点之间的紫色马丁（P. Subis）的年度迁移。这个问题的数据来自K. Fraser（曼尼托巴大学）。*** 2。加拿大大西洋的雪蟹（C. Opilio）的利用。钓鱼车队将自己分配在合作和竞争群体之间。这个问题的数据来自D. Gillis（曼尼托巴大学）。*** 3。疟疾在科莫罗斯群岛之间的传播。通过与C. Rogier（法国的DeSantéDesarmées服务）的合作，我获得了有关a鸟列哥五个岛屿之间的几种疟原虫（疟疾）寄生虫的菌株的传播数据。还可以提供有关岛屿与矢量密度之间人类运动的信息。******这些示例将需要不同的模型类型组合：在P. subis的情况下，离散和连续的时间确定性，在P. falciparum的情况下，对于Opilio的C. opilio，连续的时间确定性和随机性。从这些不同的示例中，我将得出控制不同类型模型的使用和耦合的一般原则。我将考虑对此类多尺度混合模型的数学分析，并将设计计算机代码进行计算分析。