Evaluation of permafrost changes due to climate change

评估气候变化引起的永久冻土变化

• 批准号: 538514-2019
• 负责人: Hollaender, Hartmut
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Engage Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=680688
• 关键词: Evaluation; permafrost; changes; due; climate

Manitoba Hydro is an electric power and natural gas utility in Manitoba. Freezing and thawing of water and soil are impacted by climate change and might force water resource and geotechnical management of Manitoba Hydro to be changed in the near future. Northern infrastructure and water resources management adaptions were originally designed to rely on the properties of ice-rich frozen soil. However, due to climate change, old design assumptions are no longer valid. One example for potential changes are the questions how soil and groundwater will contribute to the available water in the future and how this water will be replenished. Thus, a critical factor in permafrost degradation are changes in the hydrological processes which results from free flowing water and their associated but currently unknown flow paths. This project will investigate the thermal status of the permafrost under current and future climate conditions using numerical modeling and will advise Manitoba Hydro which additional hydrological processes are needed to be considered in their reservoir management. This will allow Manitoba Hydro to upgrade their current hydrological models and to develop new management scenarios addressing potential changes in the future. Thus, the results of this project will support the energy security in the Province of Manitoba.

曼尼托巴水电是曼尼托巴省的电力和天然气实用程序。水和土壤的冻结和解冻受到气候变化的影响，可能会迫使水资源和岩土技术对曼尼托巴水电的管理发生变化。北部基础设施和水资源管理改编最初旨在依赖冰纯净的土壤的特性。但是，由于气候变化，旧的设计假设不再有效。潜在变化的一个例子是，土壤和地下水将来将如何为可用的水做出贡献以及如何补充水。因此，多年冻土降解的关键因素是水文过程的变化，这是由于自由流水及其相关但目前未知的流动路径而导致的。该项目将使用数值建模在当前和未来的气候条件下调查多年冻土的热状态，并将建议曼尼托巴水域，在其储层管理中需要考虑其他水文过程。这将使曼尼托巴水电升级其当前的水文模型，并开发新的管理方案，以解决未来的潜在变化。因此，该项目的结果将支持曼尼托巴省的能源安全。