Study of arctic and subarctic winter extreme events in a changing climate/Étude des évènements extrêmes hivernaux en régions arctiques et subarctiques dans un climat en changement

气候变化中北极和亚北极冬季极端事件的研究/âtude des évènements extrémes hivernaux en régions arctiques et subarctiques dans un climat en changement

• 批准号: 435083-2013
• 负责人: Langlois, Alexandre
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Université de Sherbrooke
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=656594
• 关键词: Study; arctic; subarctic; winter; extreme

The first and strongest signs of global climate variability and change have been observed in northern regions over the past 3 decades which has led to a variety of strong climate-related feedbacks. A direct consequence of warming temperatures in the North is the increased occurrence of winter extreme events (WEE) such as rain-on-snow, heat waves, blizzards and heavy snowfall that are expected to last longer. Hence, the overarching goal of the proposed research is to monitor WEE in subarctic and arctic environments using 30 years of satellite remote sensing data (microwave, multispectral) and modeling at various scales. In order for the proposed research to achieve its goals, my approach is twofold: 1) data field collection is planned to observe and characterize impacts of extreme events on surface properties and the associated electromagnetic responses in order to develop WEE detection algorithms using remote sensing. The WEE will then be monitored from space in order to identify trends in event occurrences; 2) the obtained results will be compared with snow model simulations to evaluate their performance in simulating WEE as well as identifying associated biases in climate scenarios. The novelty of the proposed research resides in the fact that the occurrence of WEE in arctic and subarctic regions has not been studied using remote sensing despite its significant impacts at various levels. This is mostly due to a lack of data and expertise given the harsh winter working conditions. Subarctic and arctic WEE are of particular relevance from scientific (e.g., climate scenario development), economic (e.g., damage to infrastructure) and social (e.g., public safety and natural hazards) perspectives. The proposed project provides a unique opportunity to address these urgent needs in the context of climate change and increased interest in northern natural resources. The remote sensing science that would be developed will improve our current knowledge of the state of subarctic and arctic regions and will be of significant relevance to decision-makers and northern stakeholders. ****************

过去三十年来，北方地区观察到了全球气候变率和变化的最初也是最强烈的迹象，这导致了各种与气候相关的强烈反馈。北方气温变暖的直接后果是冬季极端事件（WEE）的发生增加，例如雨雪、热浪、暴风雪和大雪，预计持续时间会更长。因此，拟议研究的总体目标是利用 30 年的卫星遥感数据（微波、多光谱）和不同尺度的建模来监测亚北极和北极环境中的 WEE。为了使拟议的研究实现其目标，我的方法有两个：1）计划进行数据现场收集，以观察和表征极端事件对表面特性和相关电磁响应的影响，以便使用遥感开发 WEE 检测算法。然后将从太空监测 WEE，以确定事件发生的趋势； 2) 将获得的结果与雪模型模拟进行比较，以评估其在模拟 WEE 方面的性能以及识别气候情景中的相关偏差。本研究的新颖性在于，尽管 WEE 在各个层面都产生了重大影响，但尚未利用遥感技术对北极和亚北极地区的 WEE 发生情况进行研究。这主要是由于冬季工作条件恶劣，缺乏数据和专业知识。从科学（例如，气候情景发展）、经济（例如，对基础设施的破坏）和社会（例如，公共安全和自然灾害）的角度来看，亚北极和北极的WEE具有特别重要的意义。拟议的项目提供了一个独特的机会，可以在气候变化和对北方自然资源日益关注的背景下满足这些迫切需求。 将开发的遥感科学将提高我们目前对亚北极和北极地区状况的了解，并将对决策者和北方利益相关者具有重要意义。 **************