Theory of the atmospheric general circulation: coupling to polar climate and cryospheric change.

大气环流理论：极地气候和冰冻圈变化的耦合。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-06066
• 负责人: Kushner, Paul
• 金额: $ 3.79万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=656166
• 关键词: Theory; atmospheric; general; circulation; coupling

The complexity of climate change at high latitudes presents many challenges to researchers interested in the atmospheric general circulation. For example, the last two years included the most extreme Artic sea ice minimum and the most rapid spring-to-summer retreat of Northern Hemisphere snow cover ever recorded. These years also featured extreme midlatitude weather events which some researchers have speculated are linked to recent Arctic change. Rapid climate change at high latitudes is taking place in the context of long term anthropogenic global change, is strongly influenced by climate feedbacks, and is connected to changes in the planetary scale general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans. But key aspects of high latitude climate change are not robustly predicted by climate models, and the climate feedbacks and dynamical coupling to the planetary-scale circulation of the atmosphere and oceans remain poorly understood.* The PI leads an original basic research program whose long term objective is to better understand the atmospheric circulation outside the tropics, its variability on decadal timescales, its sensitivity to climate change, and its coupling to the environment. Alongside, in the last six years, he has developed and now leads a collaborative applied research program in Arctic and cryospheric modelling, focusing on prediction of snow cover and sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales. The PI's basic research program centres on a hierarchy of climate models that ranges from novel configurations of simplified representations of the atmosphere to state of the art Earth System Models (ESMs) that endeavour to include the physical, biological, and chemical processes controlling Earth's climate. This basic research program is needed for the PI to be able to leverage his applied work to improve climate prediction and advance our understanding of climate.* The PI's research aims, over the long term, to advance the theory of the atmospheric general circulation. Its primary application is towards climate change and variability at high latitudes. This Discovery Grant proposal is intended to support the PI's basic research program for the next six years. The research's objectives over the next six years are*1) To learn how high latitude climate is linked to variability associated with atmospheric planetary waves, with a focus on a so-called "linear interference effect" that the PI's group has explored in groundbreaking research.*2) To understand the two-way connections between midlatitude and polar variability using a hierarchy of climate models of varying degrees of complexity, which has been a hallmark of the PI's successful theoretical research.*3) To identify mechanisms in the coupled ocean atmosphere system controlling persistence and predictability of decadal climate signals in the midlatitudes, with a suite of comprehensive ESM simulations being generated using Canadian and international computing resources.*4) To carry out targeted analysis on the impact of Arctic variability on the Arctic environment in the setting of lake dynamics studies, through collaborative research. The lake work will combine meteorological analysis with multiple-decade long Arctic lake records, as well as regional model representations of present day conditions and under conditions of projected global warming.*The PI maintains a group of excellent undergraduate students, graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and research associates to support his research program; they receive rigorous training and as a result advance well professionally. Resources requested in the proposal will go mainly to support students, and are intended to continue the applicant's track record of high level training and follow on placement.

高纬度气候变化的复杂性给对大气环流感兴趣的研究人员提出了许多挑战。例如，过去两年出现了有史以来最极端的北极海冰最低值和北半球有记录以来最快速的春夏消退。这些年还出现了极端的中纬度天气事件，一些研究人员推测这些事件与最近的北极变化有关。高纬度地区的快速气候变化是在长期人为全球变化的背景下发生的，受到气候反馈的强烈影响，并与行星尺度大气和海洋环流的变化有关。但气候模型并不能有力地预测高纬度地区气候变化的关键方面，气候反馈以及与大气和海洋的行星尺度环流的动力耦合仍然知之甚少。* PI 领导了一项原创基础研究项目，该项目的长期研究目标是更好地了解热带地区以外的大气环流、其在十年时间尺度上的变化、其对气候变化的敏感性以及其与环境的耦合。此外，在过去六年中，他开发并领导了一个北极和冰冻圈建模合作应用研究项目，重点是季节到十年时间尺度的积雪和海冰预测。 PI 的基础研究计划以气候模型层次为中心，范围从大气简化表示的新颖配置到最先进的地球系统模型 (ESM)，后者致力于包括控制地球气候的物理、生物和化学过程。 PI 需要这项基础研究计划，以便能够利用他的应用工作来改进气候预测并增进我们对气候的理解。*从长远来看，PI 的研究目标是推进大气环流理论。其主要应用是针对高纬度地区的气候变化和变异性。这项发现资助提案旨在支持 PI 未来六年的基础研究计划。 该研究未来六年的目标是*1) 了解高纬度气候如何与大气行星波相关的变异性相关，重点关注 PI 团队在开创性研究中探索的所谓“线性干扰效应” *2) 使用不同复杂程度的气候模型层次结构来了解中纬度和极地变率之间的双向联系，这是 PI 成功理论研究的标志。*3) 确定耦合海洋中的机制气氛系统控制中纬度地区十年间气候信号的持久性和可预测性，并使用加拿大和国际计算资源生成一套全面的ESM模拟。*4) 在湖泊背景下，对北极变率对北极环境的影响进行有针对性的分析通过合作研究进行动力学研究。湖泊工作将把气象分析与数十年的北极湖泊记录以及当前条件和预计全球变暖条件下的区域模型表示相结合。*PI拥有一批优秀的本科生、研究生、博士后研究员和研究助理来支持他的研究计划；他们接受严格的培训，因此在专业上取得了很大的进步。提案中要求的资源将主要用于支持学生，并旨在延续申请人的高水平培训记录并跟踪安置。