Theory of the atmospheric general circulation: coupling to polar climate and cryospheric change.

大气环流理论：极地气候和冰冻圈变化的耦合。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-06066
• 负责人: Kushner, Paul
• 金额: $ 3.79万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=634119
• 关键词: Theory; atmospheric; general; circulation; coupling

The complexity of climate change at high latitudes presents many challenges to researchers interested in the atmospheric general circulation. For example, the last two years included the most extreme Artic sea ice minimum and the most rapid spring-to-summer retreat of Northern Hemisphere snow cover ever recorded. These years also featured extreme midlatitude weather events which some researchers have speculated are linked to recent Arctic change. Rapid climate change at high latitudes is taking place in the context of long term anthropogenic global change, is strongly influenced by climate feedbacks, and is connected to changes in the planetary scale general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans. But key aspects of high latitude climate change are not robustly predicted by climate models, and the climate feedbacks and dynamical coupling to the planetary-scale circulation of the atmosphere and oceans remain poorly understood. The PI leads an original basic research program whose long term objective is to better understand the atmospheric circulation outside the tropics, its variability on decadal timescales, its sensitivity to climate change, and its coupling to the environment. Alongside, in the last six years, he has developed and now leads a collaborative applied research program in Arctic and cryospheric modelling, focusing on prediction of snow cover and sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales. The PI's basic research program centres on a hierarchy of climate models that ranges from novel configurations of simplified representations of the atmosphere to state of the art Earth System Models (ESMs) that endeavour to include the physical, biological, and chemical processes controlling Earth's climate. This basic research program is needed for the PI to be able to leverage his applied work to improve climate prediction and advance our understanding of climate. The PI's research aims, over the long term, to advance the theory of the atmospheric general circulation. Its primary application is towards climate change and variability at high latitudes. This Discovery Grant proposal is intended to support the PI’s basic research program for the next six years. The research's objectives over the next six years are1) To learn how high latitude climate is linked to variability associated with atmospheric planetary waves, with a focus on a so-called "linear interference effect" that the PI's group has explored in groundbreaking research.2) To understand the two-way connections between midlatitude and polar variability using a hierarchy of climate models of varying degrees of complexity, which has been a hallmark of the PI's successful theoretical research.3) To identify mechanisms in the coupled ocean atmosphere system controlling persistence and predictability of decadal climate signals in the midlatitudes, with a suite of comprehensive ESM simulations being generated using Canadian and international computing resources.4) To carry out targeted analysis on the impact of Arctic variability on the Arctic environment in the setting of lake dynamics studies, through collaborative research. The lake work will combine meteorological analysis with multiple-decade long Arctic lake records, as well as regional model representations of present day conditions and under conditions of projected global warming.The PI maintains a group of excellent undergraduate students, graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and research associates to support his research program; they receive rigorous training and as a result advance well professionally. Resources requested in the proposal will go mainly to support students, and are intended to continue the applicant’s track record of high level training and follow on placement.

高纬度地区气候变化的复杂性给对大气一般循环感兴趣的研究人员带来了许多挑战。例如，最近两年包括最低量最大的北半球雪覆盖春季至夏季静修。这些年来，一些研究人员推测的极端中纬度天气事件与最近的北极变化有关。高纬度的快速气候变化正在长期人为全球变化的背景下发生，受到气候反馈的强烈影响，并且与大气和海洋的一般循环的变化有关。但是，高纬度气候变化的关键方面无法通过气候模型来强烈预测，气候反馈和与大气和海洋行星尺度循环的动态耦合仍然知之甚少。 PI领导了一项原始的基础研究计划，其长期目标是更好地了解热带地区以外的大气循环，其对年代际时期尺度的变异性，对气候变化的敏感性以及与环境的耦合。在过去的六年中，他已经开发并领导了一项在北极和冰圈建模方面的合作应用研究计划，重点是预测雪覆盖和海冰对季节性到十年时间标准的预测。 PI的基础研究计划集中在攀岩模型的层次结构上，范围从简化大气的新型配置到最先进的地球系统模型（ESMS），这些模型（ESMS）努力包括控制地球气候的物理，生物学和化学过程。 PI需要这项基础研究计划，以便能够利用他的应用工作来改善气候预测并提高我们对攀登的理解。长期以来，PI的研究旨在推进大气一般循环的理论。它的主要应用是高纬度的气候变化和可变性。该发现赠款提案旨在支持未来六年的PI基础研究计划。该研究在未来六年中的目标是1），了解如何与与大气行星波相关的可变性有关，重点是所谓的“线性干扰效应”，PI的小组在突破性的研究中探索了该研究。 PI成功的理论研究。3）在耦合的海洋大气系统中确定机制，可控制中段际气候信号的持久性和可预测性，并使用加拿大和国际计算资源生成了一系列全面的ESM模拟。4）通过对artctic acrctic Enviration进行了artctic interclition in the clakectic interclicity interclicity interclicity interclicity sernctic sernctic sern cartection sernctic sern stractic sernctic sern sert sernctic sert sernctic sert sert sernctic sert of stractic sert of the actrict of。湖泊工作将将气象分析与多个十年的长北极湖记录以及当今状况的区域模型表示，并在预计全球变暖的条件下。他们接受了严格的培训，因此专业地进展顺利。该提案中要求的资源将主要用于支持学生，并旨在继续申请人的高级培训记录并遵循安置。