Theory of the atmospheric general circulation: coupling to polar climate and cryospheric change.

大气环流理论：极地气候和冰冻圈变化的耦合。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-06066
• 负责人: Kushner, Paul
• 金额: $ 3.79万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=634119
• 关键词: Theory; atmospheric; general; circulation; coupling

The complexity of climate change at high latitudes presents many challenges to researchers interested in the atmospheric general circulation. For example, the last two years included the most extreme Artic sea ice minimum and the most rapid spring-to-summer retreat of Northern Hemisphere snow cover ever recorded. These years also featured extreme midlatitude weather events which some researchers have speculated are linked to recent Arctic change. Rapid climate change at high latitudes is taking place in the context of long term anthropogenic global change, is strongly influenced by climate feedbacks, and is connected to changes in the planetary scale general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans. But key aspects of high latitude climate change are not robustly predicted by climate models, and the climate feedbacks and dynamical coupling to the planetary-scale circulation of the atmosphere and oceans remain poorly understood. The PI leads an original basic research program whose long term objective is to better understand the atmospheric circulation outside the tropics, its variability on decadal timescales, its sensitivity to climate change, and its coupling to the environment. Alongside, in the last six years, he has developed and now leads a collaborative applied research program in Arctic and cryospheric modelling, focusing on prediction of snow cover and sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales. The PI's basic research program centres on a hierarchy of climate models that ranges from novel configurations of simplified representations of the atmosphere to state of the art Earth System Models (ESMs) that endeavour to include the physical, biological, and chemical processes controlling Earth's climate. This basic research program is needed for the PI to be able to leverage his applied work to improve climate prediction and advance our understanding of climate. The PI's research aims, over the long term, to advance the theory of the atmospheric general circulation. Its primary application is towards climate change and variability at high latitudes. This Discovery Grant proposal is intended to support the PI’s basic research program for the next six years. The research's objectives over the next six years are1) To learn how high latitude climate is linked to variability associated with atmospheric planetary waves, with a focus on a so-called "linear interference effect" that the PI's group has explored in groundbreaking research.2) To understand the two-way connections between midlatitude and polar variability using a hierarchy of climate models of varying degrees of complexity, which has been a hallmark of the PI's successful theoretical research.3) To identify mechanisms in the coupled ocean atmosphere system controlling persistence and predictability of decadal climate signals in the midlatitudes, with a suite of comprehensive ESM simulations being generated using Canadian and international computing resources.4) To carry out targeted analysis on the impact of Arctic variability on the Arctic environment in the setting of lake dynamics studies, through collaborative research. The lake work will combine meteorological analysis with multiple-decade long Arctic lake records, as well as regional model representations of present day conditions and under conditions of projected global warming.The PI maintains a group of excellent undergraduate students, graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and research associates to support his research program; they receive rigorous training and as a result advance well professionally. Resources requested in the proposal will go mainly to support students, and are intended to continue the applicant’s track record of high level training and follow on placement.

高纬度地区气候变化的复杂性给对大气环流感兴趣的研究人员提出了许多挑战，例如，过去两年出现了最极端的北极海冰极小期和北半球积雪从春季到夏季最快速的消退。这些年还出现了极端的中纬度天气事件，一些研究人员推测这些事件与近期高纬度地区的快速气候变化密切相关，这些变化是在长期人为全球变化的背景下发生的，并受到气候反馈的影响。连接到但气候模型并不能有力地预测高纬度气候变化的关键方面，而且人们对气候反馈以及与大气和海洋的行星尺度环流的动力耦合仍然知之甚少。该项目负责人领导了一项原创基础研究项目，其长期目标是更好地了解热带地区以外的大气环流、其在十年时间尺度上的变化、其对气候变化的敏感性以及其与环境的耦合。他开发并领导了一个北极和冰冻圈模拟合作应用研究项目，重点是季节性到十年时间尺度的积雪和海冰预测。PI 的基础研究项目以气候模型的层次结构为中心，范围从新颖的简化配置。将大气层表示为最先进的地球系统模型（ESM），该模型致力于将控制地球气候的物理、生物和化学过程纳入其中，以便 PI 能够利用这一基础研究计划。他的应用工作旨在改善气候预测并增进我们对气候的了解，从长远来看，其主要应用是研究高纬度地区的气候变化和变化。该提案旨在支持 PI 未来六年的基础研究计划 未来六年的研究目标是 1) 了解高纬度气候如何与大气行星波相关的变化相关。 “线性干涉效应” PI 小组在开创性研究中进行了探索。2) 使用不同复杂程度的气候模型层次结构来了解中纬度和极地变率之间的双向联系，这是 PI 成功理论研究的标志。3)确定耦合海洋大气系统中控制中纬度年代际气候信号的持久性和可预测性的机制，并使用加拿大和国际计算资源生成一套全面的 ESM 模拟。4) 对北极变率的影响进行有针对性的分析通过合作研究，在湖泊动力学研究的背景下研究北极环境。湖泊工作将把气象分析与数十年的北极湖泊记录以及当前状况和预计全球变暖条件下的区域模型表示相结合。 PI拥有一批优秀的本科生、研究生、博士后和研究员来支持他的研究项目；他们接受严格的培训，因此在专业上取得了良好的进步，提案中要求的资源将主要用于支持学生，以及旨在继续申请人的轨迹高水平培训记录并跟踪安置。