Towards a better assessment of hydrological natural variability as a key adaptation strategy to climate change

更好地评估水文自然变率作为气候变化的关键适应战略

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05048
• 负责人: Brissette, Francois
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: École de technologie supérieure
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=646263
• 关键词: Towards; better; assessment; hydrological; natural

Despite all the research done on the impacts of climate change on water resources, few stakeholders have been willing to commit to adaptation strategies for a distant and uncertain future. Decision makers are more prepared to adapt to strategies with a shorter return on investment (<20 years). Over a 20-year horizon however, climate is strongly dominated by natural variability and not by human-induced change. In many cases, infrastructures are not well adapted to natural climate variability (let alone climate change), because it is essentially overlooked in engineering design which usually assumes stationary stochastic processes.****Consequently, adaptation to natural variability would be an efficient way to reduce vulnerabilities in the current and future climate. With an adequate knowledge of natural variability, robust no-regrets adaptation strategies could be devised. These strategies would be easier to sell to stakeholders because they would not be as clouded with uncertainties as those derived from climate change impact studies. This research program proposes an in-depth look at natural climate variability in hydrological sciences and how to harvest this knowledge to eventually improve engineering design practices and provide robust adaptation strategies to climate change. The main objectives are to:****o Better describe and understand the natural variability of key hydrological variables over Canadian watersheds; and***o Contrast the relative contributions of natural variability and climate change to hydrological vulnerability in both current and future climates.******To move toward these long term goals, the following four specific objectives are proposed:****- Study the natural climate variability on selected watersheds using the longest available traditional time-series;***- Extend the historical record for key stations and watersheds using output data from the 20th century reanalysis project and long-range meteorological gridded data, combined with hydrological modelling;***- Further our understanding of natural variability using three large ensembles of climate model simulations; and***- Based on the 1980-2010 reference period, to contrast the impacts of natural variability and climate change for various future time horizons.******This research program will provide stakeholders with a better understanding of our vulnerabilities to natural climate variability. Adapting to natural variability, as opposed to climate change, is likely to translate into more rapid actions by decision makers, while affording a significant protection against climate change. Considering that the cost of climate change in Canada is evaluated at between 21 and 43 billion dollars per year by 2050, any successful adaptation strategy will result in a very large saving for the Canadian economy.**

尽管对气候变化对水资源的影响进行了所有研究，但很少有利益相关者愿意为遥远且不确定的未来制定适应战略。决策者更愿意适应投资回报较短的战略（<20）。然而，在 20 年的时间里，气候主要受自然变化的影响，而不是人为引起的变化。在许多情况下，基础设施不能很好地适应自然气候变化（更不用说气候变化），因为它在工程中基本上被忽视了。通常假设平稳随机的设计因此，适应自然变化将是减少当前和未来气候脆弱性的有效方法。有了对自然变化的充分了解，就可以更容易地制定强有力的无悔适应策略。向利益相关者出售，因为他们不会像气候变化影响研究中那样充满不确定性。该研究计划建议深入研究水文科学中的自然气候变化以及如何收获这些知识以最终改进工程设计实践。并提供强大的适应能力气候变化战略的主要目标是：****o 更好地描述和理解加拿大流域关键水文变量的自然变化；以及***o 对比自然变化和气候变化对加拿大流域水文脆弱性的相对影响；当前和未来的气候。*****为了实现这些最长的长期目标，提出了以下四个具体目标：****- 使用可用的传统时间序列研究选定流域的自然气候变化； ***- 使用输出扩展关键站和流域的历史记录来自 20 世纪再分析项目和远程气象网格数据的数据，结合水文模型；***- 使用三个大型气候模型模拟集合进一步了解自然变率；以及***- 基于 1980-2010 年参考期，以对比自然变率和气候变化对未来不同时间范围的影响。******该研究计划将使利益相关者更好地了解我们对自然气候变率的脆弱性，而不是适应自然变率。气候考虑到到 2050 年，加拿大气候变化的成本预计将达到每年 21 至 430 亿美元，任何成功的适应战略都可能转化为决策者更迅速的行动。将为加拿大经济节省大量资金。**