Assessing climate change impacts on timber resource availability in western-central Canada: economic implications and mitigation

评估气候变化对加拿大中西部木材资源可用性的影响：经济影响和缓解措施

• 批准号: 506284-2017
• 负责人: Chen, Han
• 金额: $ 10.86万
• 依托单位: Lakehead University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Projects - Group
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=647332
• 关键词: Assessing; climate; change; impacts; timber

The boreal forest is vital to the livelihoods of millions of Canadians. Global climate change from rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations-manifested in the boreal region as warming at twice the rate of the global average and altered precipitation patterns-is widely recognized as among the greatest threats to the future of forests and the forest-related economy in Canada. Recent studies show climate change-induced declines in net biomass change as a result of increased tree mortality accompanied by little or decreased growth. However, it remains unclear how climate change has affected and will affect forest attributes related to wood supply, including individual species and stand-level productivity, and tree species/trait diversity. Moreover, there is lack of knowledge to guide forest managers in mitigating climate change impacts. The objectives of the proposed research are to (i) examine how western-central boreal forests in Canada have been and will be affected by global climate change; (ii) explore strategies to mitigate climate change stresses; and (iii) develop models to assess the consequences of climate change on future wood supply and economic metrics. We will partner with key forest products producers in western and central Canada and government forest management agencies to identify long-term, repeatedly measured forest plots and provenance trials. Our research team will collect fresh measurements and use historic data from these forest plots and experimental trials, as well as economic data, to empirically assess the extent of forest changes during the past six decades. We will use these data as a basis from which to model how the forest could change in the 21st century based on projected climate change scenarios. The research will be conducted by a team of accomplished researchers and will train six highly qualified personnel. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, theses, conferences, and partner-led workshops and immediately transferred to our supporting organizations. This project will significantly improve our understanding of past and future responses of western-central boreal forests to climate change, and inform mitigation strategies for coping with these responses.

北方森林对数百万加拿大人的生计至关重要。北方地区大气温室气体浓度的增加，全球气候变化的变暖是全球平均水平的两倍，并改变了降水模式，这被广泛认为是对森林未来和加拿大森林相关经济的最大威胁之一。最近的研究表明，由于树木死亡率的增加而伴随着生长的生长，气候变化引起的净生物量变化下降。但是，目前尚不清楚气候变化如何影响并会影响与木材供应有关的森林属性，包括个别物种和独立生产力以及树种物种/性状的多样性。此外，缺乏知识来指导森林经理减轻气候变化的影响。拟议的研究的目标是（i）研究加拿大西方中央北方森林如何并将受到全球气候变化的影响； （ii）探索减轻气候变化压力的策略； （iii）开发模型来评估气候变化对未来木材供应和经济指标的后果。我们将与加拿大西部和中部森林管理机构的主要森林产品生产商合作，以识别长期，一再测量的森林地块和出处试验。我们的研究团队将收集新的测量结果，并使用这些森林地块和实验试验的历史数据以及经济数据，以经验评估过去六十年来森林变化的程度。我们将使用这些数据作为基于预计的气候变化方案来模拟森林如何在21世纪进行变化的基础。这项研究将由一支有成就的研究人员团队进行，并将培训六名高素质的人员。结果将在经过同行评审的期刊，论文，会议和合作伙伴领导的研讨会中传播，并立即转移给我们的支持组织。该项目将大大提高我们对西方中央北方森林对气候变化的过去和未来反应的理解，并为应对这些反应的缓解策略提供依据。