A Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework to Improve Infrastructure Resilience

提高基础设施弹性的新型概率洪水建模框架

基本信息

批准号：
517998-2017
负责人：
Najafi, MohammadReza
金额：
$ 1.82万
依托单位：
University of Western Ontario
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Engage Grants Program
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=639850
关键词：
Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework

项目摘要

Flooding, as a major natural disaster worldwide, threatens human lives and causes billions of dollars in damageeach year. Accurate flood risk assessment, through proper representation of flood hazard, vulnerability andexposure, is crucial for the design, planning and management of societies and infrastructure. This project willdevelop a novel probabilistic flood modelling framework for accurate and precise estimation of floodcharacteristics (i.e. flood volume, extent, depth, velocity, time to peak, among others) which, coupled with therisk assessment package developed by RiskLogik, will be used to generate resilience plans for criticalinfrastructure. The proposed framework will provide a single most reliable estimate of flood characteristics thatis suitable for risk and resilience assessment, and will quantify uncertainties in hydrologic and hydrodynamicmodelling, flow hydrographs, parameters, and topographic data. The project will investigate an innovativeextreme value approach that does not require threshold selection for flood estimation, and will propose amulti-objective performance measure for model optimization. The integrated framework (flood modelintegrated with RiskLogik's software) will systematically assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure toflood risks in Canada and around the globe and evaluate/generate resilience plans. There will be considerableeconomic, social and environmental benefits for municipalities and other stakeholders in Canada and aroundthe globe through the development of flood mitigation strategies using this framework.

洪水作为世界范围内的重大自然灾害，每年威胁人类生命并造成数十亿美元的损失。通过正确描述洪水危害、脆弱性和暴露程度，进行准确的洪水风险评估对于社会和基础设施的设计、规划和管理至关重要。该项目将开发一种新颖的概率洪水建模框架，用于准确和精确地估计洪水特征（即洪水量、范围、深度、速度、到达峰值的时间等），该框架与 RiskLogik 开发的风险评估包相结合，将用于生成关键基础设施的弹性计划。拟议的框架将提供适合风险和复原力评估的洪水特征的单一最可靠的估计，并将量化水文和水动力模型、水流过程线、参数和地形数据的不确定性。该项目将研究一种创新的极值方法，该方法不需要洪水估计的阈值选择，并将提出一种用于模型优化的多目标性能测量。综合框架（与RiskLogik软件集成的洪水模型）将系统地评估加拿大和全球关键基础设施对洪水风险的脆弱性，并评估/生成恢复计划。通过使用该框架制定防洪战略，将为加拿大和全球各地的市政当局和其他利益相关者带来可观的经济、社会和环境效益。