A Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework to Improve Infrastructure Resilience

提高基础设施弹性的新型概率洪水建模框架

基本信息

批准号：
517998-2017
负责人：
Najafi, MohammadReza
金额：
$ 1.82万
依托单位：
University of Western Ontario
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Engage Grants Program
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=639850
关键词：
Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework

项目摘要

Flooding, as a major natural disaster worldwide, threatens human lives and causes billions of dollars in damageeach year. Accurate flood risk assessment, through proper representation of flood hazard, vulnerability andexposure, is crucial for the design, planning and management of societies and infrastructure. This project willdevelop a novel probabilistic flood modelling framework for accurate and precise estimation of floodcharacteristics (i.e. flood volume, extent, depth, velocity, time to peak, among others) which, coupled with therisk assessment package developed by RiskLogik, will be used to generate resilience plans for criticalinfrastructure. The proposed framework will provide a single most reliable estimate of flood characteristics thatis suitable for risk and resilience assessment, and will quantify uncertainties in hydrologic and hydrodynamicmodelling, flow hydrographs, parameters, and topographic data. The project will investigate an innovativeextreme value approach that does not require threshold selection for flood estimation, and will propose amulti-objective performance measure for model optimization. The integrated framework (flood modelintegrated with RiskLogik's software) will systematically assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure toflood risks in Canada and around the globe and evaluate/generate resilience plans. There will be considerableeconomic, social and environmental benefits for municipalities and other stakeholders in Canada and aroundthe globe through the development of flood mitigation strategies using this framework.

洪水是全球主要的自然灾害，威胁着人类的生命，并在损害年中造成数十亿美元。准确的洪水风险评估，通过适当代表洪水危害，脆弱性和暴露，对于社会和基础设施的设计，计划和管理至关重要。该项目将开发一个新型的概率洪水建模框架，以准确和精确的洪水范围估计（即洪水量，范围，深度，速度，速度，峰值的时间等），再加上风险洛吉克开发的Therisk评估套件，可用于为关键的Frastructure产生弹性计划。所提出的框架将提供适合风险和弹性评估的洪水特征的最可靠的估计，并将量化水文和流体动力学，流水文，参数和地形数据的不确定性。该项目将调查不需要阈值估算阈值的创新效果值方法，并将提出Amulti-Obigntive性能度量以进行模型优化。综合框架（使用BighogoGik的软件集成的洪水模型集成）将系统地评估加拿大和全球关键基础设施风险风险的脆弱性，并评估/生成弹性计划。通过使用此框架制定缓解洪水的策略，将对加拿大和地球的其他利益相关者以及环球中的其他利益相关者和其他利益相关者产生可观的经济，社会和环境利益。