Novel Approaches in Statistical Analysis and Coupled Social-Physical Systems Modeling for Integrated and Adaptive Water Resources Management in the Face of Increasing Uncertainty

面对日益增加的不确定性，用于综合和适应性水资源管理的统计分析和耦合社会物理系统建模的新方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05554
• 负责人: Adamowski, Jan
• 金额: $ 2.48万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=613621
• 关键词: Novel; Approaches; Statistical; Analysis; Coupled

In many parts of Canada and around the world, pressure on water resources, both in terms of water quality and quantity, from urban areas, agriculture, and industry are increasing, resulting in significant challenges in sustainable water resources management. In addition, in many regions of the world climate change will increase the frequency of extreme events (e.g., droughts and floods), which will have significant impacts on, among other things, our ecosystems, water resources, urban areas, and agricultural and food systems, which in turn will have ramifications on water and food security. The capacity of communities to mitigate against, and adapt to, such complex problems is presently constrained by many factors, including: i) a lack of water resources data in many watersheds that can help support water resources modeling and management; ii) challenges in providing highly accurate forecasts of non-linear and non-stationary water resources variables, and providing uncertainty assessments for decision makers; and iii) a lack of meaningful participation of key stakeholders in water resources modeling and management, coupled with our limited knowledge and modeling ability of the complex coupling of physical and social-economic activities in water resources systems. To directly address these three critical issues, this research program will follow a three pronged approach to develop, test, and implement: i) Methods to improve water resources data records for modeling and management. This will involve new approaches to extend water resources records in short-gauged sites, as well as estimate water resources records in ungauged sites. ii) Methods to improve short term water resources forecasting. This will involve new approaches to address non-linearity, non-stationarity, and uncertainty assessment in water resources forecasting. iii) Methods to improve the incorporation of key stakeholders and social aspects in water resources modeling and management. This will involve a new participatory social-physical systems modeling approach to represent and couple interactions between physical and social-economic processes that govern water resources systems. This research program will facilitate the transition towards more sustainable water resources management, and will provide training of highly qualified personnel in a unique combination of state-of-the-art concepts and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated, collaborative, and adaptive water resources management.

在加拿大和世界各地的许多地区，在水质和数量方面，城市地区，农业和工业的水资源压力都在增加，从而导致可持续水资源管理面临重大挑战。此外，在世界许多地区，气候变化将增加极端事件的频率（例如干旱和洪水），这将对我们的生态系统，水资源，城市和农业和食品产生重大影响系统又将对水和粮食安全产生影响。目前，社区减轻和适应这种复杂问题的能力受到许多因素的限制，包括：i）许多流域中缺乏水资源数据，这些数据可以帮助支持水资源建模和管理； ii）在提供非线性和非平稳水资源变量的高度准确预测方面的挑战，并为决策者提供不确定性评估； iii）缺乏主要利益相关者参与水资源建模和管理，再加上我们在水资源系统中物理和社会经济活动复杂耦合的知识和建模能力的有限的知识和建模能力。 为了直接解决这三个关键问题，该研究计划将遵循一种三种钢琴的方法来开发，测试和实施：i）改善水资源数据记录进行建模和管理的方法。这将涉及新的方法，以扩大短名地点的水资源记录，并估算未登高地点的水资源记录。 ii）改善短期水资源预测的方法。这将涉及解决水资源预测中非线性，非平稳性和不确定性评估的新方法。 iii）改善主要利益相关者和社会方面在水资源建模和管理中的方法的方法。这将涉及一种新的参与式社会物理系统建模方法，以代表和社会经济过程之间的互动和夫妇互动，以控制水资源系统。该研究计划将促进向更可持续的水资源管理的过渡，并将在水文学领域和综合，协作和适应性水领域的最先进概念和方法的独特组合中提供对高素质人员的培训资源管理。