Probabilistic Models for Performance-based Engineering, Applied to Tall Wood Buildings

基于性能的工程概率模型，应用于高层木结构建筑

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05451
• 负责人: Haukaas, Terje
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=588428
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Models; Performance; based; Engineering

The safety and economic security of Canadians depend on the integrity of the built environment. Inadequate performance of structural components in buildings and infrastructure can lead to dramatic consequences and devastating losses. Recent events abroad have served notice to Canadian municipalities. One example is the 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, which caused casualties, monetary losses in excess of $20 billion, and long-term impacts on businesses and regional growth. Similar impacts have been observed when other earthquakes have struck modern urban regions around the world. On this background the increasing urbanization of Canada, particularly in the seismically active regions around Vancouver and Montreal, raises important concerns that are addressed in this proposal. Structural engineers must balance many concerns, ranging from potential damage and deterioration of buildings to environmental impacts of construction. In fact, a life-cycle viewpoint must be adopted, which considers several direct and indirect costs in conjunction with an array of hazards. A key concern in this proposal is damage due to earthquakes, but the objective is not to seek zero damage. This is because the cost of improving new and existing designs is substantial, both in monetary terms and also in terms of environmental impacts. Moreover, many sources of uncertainty prevent deterministic predictions of what will happen in the future in terms of hazards, structural performance, and costs. As a result, the goal is rather to help engineers identify and communicate the optimum allocation of resources based on a holistic consideration of risk. While this is a broadly accepted ideal, it requires an array of models, many of which are either unavailable or employed only in academic research. Substantial work is therefore required to complement conservative code equations with predictive models. Thus, 375 years since Galileo’s first efforts to predict the load capacity of beams, efforts by structural engineers to improve their models are as important as ever. The vision leading this proposal is that engineers in the future will use computer simulation models of the built environment as a basis for the quantification, mitigation, and communication of risk. The simulations will comprehensively model the hazards that the buildings and infrastructure are subjected to during their life cycle, and the results will quantify the ensuing costs. To address this challenge, an extensive research program is proposed with the aims of improving existing computer models, developing new ones, and unifying both in a holistic analysis framework. Building on the applicant’s expertise and a newly developed software platform, particular attention will be devoted to probabilistic analysis. The research outcomes will have broad applicability but the testbed application will be tall wood buildings. Prompted by initiatives in British Columbia, as well as a renaissance in tall wood buildings worldwide, this research will contribute to the safe and sustainable re-introduction of such buildings into seismic regions. The material of choice is cross-laminated timber (CLT), which is a new product with a growing market-share in multi-storey construction. The introduction of CLT comes as building code committees in Canada and around the world are seeking to amend prescriptive design rules with a more performance-based approach. For that reason, and because there is limited experience with tall CLT buildings in seismic regions, this type of construction represents an ideal opportunity to use performance predictions and a holistic consideration of risk as design bases. The development of computer models and tools for this purpose is the principal objective of this proposal.

加拿大人的安全和经济保障取决于建筑环境的完整性，建筑物和基础设施的结构部件性能不足可能会导致严重的后果和毁灭性的损失，2011 年的地震就是一个例子。新西兰克赖斯特彻奇发生的地震造成了超过 200 亿美元的人员伤亡，并对企业和地区经济增长产生了长期影响。增加加拿大的城市化，特别是在温哥华和蒙特利尔周围的地震活跃地区，引起了本提案中解决的重要问题。 结构工程师必须平衡许多问题，从建筑物的潜在损坏和恶化到施工对环境的影响。事实上，必须采用生命周期的观点，其中考虑了一些直接和间接成本以及一系列危险。该提案关注的是地震造成的损害，但目标不是寻求零损害，这是因为改进新的和现有的设计的成本是巨大的，无论是在金钱方面还是在环境影响方面。不确定性阻碍了对什么的确定性预测因此，我们的目标是帮助工程师根据风险的整体考虑来确定和传达资源的最佳分配，而这是一个被广泛接受的理想。 ，它需要一系列模型，其中许多模型要么不可用，要么仅在学术研究中使用，因此需要大量工作来用预测模型补充保守的代码方程。距伽利略首次尝试预测梁的负载能力已有 375 年了。 ，结构工程师的努力改进他们的模型一如既往地重要。 该提案的愿景是，未来工程师将使用建筑环境的计算机模拟模型作为风险量化、缓解和交流的基础，模拟将对建筑物和基础设施在风险期间遭受的危害进行全面建模。为了应对这一挑战，提出了一项广泛的研究计划，旨在改进现有的计算机模型，开发新的模型，并将两者统一到一个整体分析框架中。专业知识和新开发的软件平台将特别关注概率分析，但在不列颠哥伦比亚省的倡议以及全球高层木结构复兴的推动下，该研究将具有广泛的适用性。为了将此类建筑安全、可持续地重新引入地震地区，首选材料是交叉层压木材（CLT），这是一种在多层建筑中市场份额不断增长的新产品。 CLT 出现之际，加拿大和世界各地的建筑规范委员会正在寻求采用更加基于性能的方法修改规范性设计规则，并且由于地震地区高层 CLT 建筑的经验有限，因此这种类型的建筑代表了这一点。使用性能预测和全面考虑风险作为设计基础的理想机会为此目的开发计算机模型和工具是该提案的主要目标。