Disaster Resilience of Urban Communities in Canada: New Probabilistic Models and Computational Methods

加拿大城市社区的抗灾能力：新的概率模型和计算方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-03991
• 负责人: Haukaas, Terje
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=714539
• 关键词: Disaster; Resilience; Urban; Communities; Canada

An earthquake in the Metro Vancouver region can cause extensive damage and displacement of a significant portion of the population, but we lack knowledge about how the built environment will perform. A recent report by the British Columbia Auditor General concluded that the region is not adequately prepared for a catastrophic earthquake. Studies have shown that a strong earthquake near Vancouver, or an offshore subduction earthquake, is likely to cause billions of dollars in damage, but the impacts are uncertain. The proposed work employs that region as a testbed for a new computer simulation platform with interchangeable probabilistic models aimed at helping the region better prepare for and recover from a disaster. Rather than seeing a computer simulation program as a single deliverable from this work, an important outcome is a collection of probabilistic models for damage and recovery of bridges, ports, residential houses, and structures in the power and water grids. These models can be shared with other researchers, and models from other researchers are integrated into the framework. The information flowing between the models include calculated responses, such as earthquake intensity, and flow of power, water, and resources for repairs. The computational platform has already been employed to simulate regional losses due to earthquakes and the flow of fuel to coastal communities. A central question addressed in the proposed work is how many persons will be displaced in the next strong earthquake near Vancouver and what the timeline is for the housing recovery. Additional performance and resilience metrics are predicted and “what-if” scenarios are simulated, but population displacement and long-term housing recovery represent important gaps in our understanding of community resilience. Many models are needed to address that problem and a framework of hazard models are already in place from earlier work. The proposed work creates a new framework of probabilistic models in three categories: 1) Models for damage to residences and the structures of the power/water grids, directly affecting the number of displaced persons; 2) Models to predict the repair actions and the resources needed for repairs, without which housing recovery will be delayed; and 3) Models for damage and recovery of port and bridge structures critical to the flow of workers and materials into and within the region. The United Nations framework for disaster risk reduction urges governments to reduce the damage potential for critical infrastructure, and the Ministry of Public Safety in Canada has a mandate to develop plans to enhance the disaster resilience of Canadian communities. The proposed work addresses those challenges through the development of new tools and the training of highly qualified personnel to help managers of ports, bridges, and power and water infrastructure to assess and to reduce the risks associated with the structures they oversee.

大温哥华地区的地震可能会造成广泛的破坏和很大一部分人口的流离失所，但我们对建筑环境的表现缺乏了解，不列颠哥伦比亚省审计长最近的一份报告得出的结论是，该地区没有做好充分的准备。研究表明，温哥华附近的强烈地震或近海俯冲地震可能会造成数十亿美元的损失，但拟议的工作将该地区用作新计算机的测试平台。具有可互换概率的仿真平台旨在帮助该地区更好地做好灾难准备和从灾难中恢复的模型。 这项工作的一个重要成果不是将计算机模拟程序视为单一的交付成果，而是收集了桥梁、港口、住宅以及电力和水网结构的损坏和恢复的概率模型。这些模型可以共享。与其他研究人员合作，并将其他研究人员的模型集成到该框架中，模型之间的信息流动包括计算的响应，例如地震强度以及用于修复的电力、水和资源的流动。模拟地震和水流造成的区域损失为沿海社区提供燃料。 拟议工作中解决的一个核心问题是，在温哥华附近的下一次强烈地震中，将有多少人流离失所，以及预测住房恢复的时间表，并模拟“假设”情景。人口流离失所和长期住房恢复代表了我们对社区复原力的理解中的重要差距，需要许多模型来解决这个问题，并且早期工作中已经建立了灾害模型框架。拟议的工作创建了一个新的概率模型框架。分为三类： 1) 损坏模型住宅和电力/水网的结构，直接影响流离失所者的数量； 2) 预测修复行动和修复所需资源的模型，否则住房恢复将被延迟； 3) 损坏和恢复模型；港口和桥梁结构对于工人和材料流入该地区以及在该地区内流动至关重要。 联合国减少灾害风险框架敦促各国政府减少关键基础设施的潜在损坏，加拿大公共安全部有权制定计划，以增强加拿大社区的抗灾能力。拟议的工作通过以下方式应对这些挑战。开发新工具并培训高素质人员，帮助港口、桥梁、电力和水利基础设施的管理人员评估和减少与其监管的结构相关的风险。