Dynamic Modeling of the HCV Epidemic in IDU

注射吸毒者中 HCV 流行的动态建模

• 批准号: 7841910
• 负责人: JUDITH ALISSA HAHN
• 金额: $ 16.74万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-06-20 至 2012-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7841910
• 关键词: AIDS prevention; Acute; Applications Grants; Area; Biometry; California; Chronic; Communicable Diseases; Data; Disease model; Doctor of Philosophy; Drug Compounding; Drug user; Epidemic; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Equipment; GB virus C; Goals; HIV; Health Policy; Hepatitis C; Hepatitis C Incidence; Hepatitis C virus; Infection; Injecting drug user; International; Intervention; K-Series Research Career Programs; Mentored Research Scientist Development Award; Mentors; Modeling; Mono-S; Needle Sharing; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Prevalence; Prospective Studies; Publications; Research; Research Design; Research Infrastructure; Research Personnel; Research Training; Role; San Francisco; Solid; Study models; Time; Training; Universities; Vaccination; base; behavior change; disease transmission; effective intervention; epidemiologic data; experience; mathematical model; model development; multidisciplinary; professor; public health relevance; tool; treatment strategy; trend; vaccine candidate

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a K01 award application for Judith Hahn, Ph.D., an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco. Her long-term goal is to become a leader in developing mathematical models to guide health policy for drug users that are informed by empirical studies designed especially for this purpose. She has had extensive experience studying HIV and HCV in drug users and has authored 40 publications, including 7 as first author. However, her role as co-investigator on multiple studies for small amounts (10-15%) of her time limits her ability to develop her own research area, and while she is trained in biostatistics and epidemiology, she has had no previous formal training in mathematical modeling. K01 support will allow her to become skilled in (1) mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and (2) the conduct of multidisciplinary studies of disease transmission, especially partner studies, to inform such models. She will be mentored by Dr. Wayne Getz, Professor at DC Berkeley, an international leader in disease modeling. She will be co mentored by Dr. Kimberly Page-Shafer, Associate Professor, UCSF, who specializes in multidisciplinary HCV and HIV prevention studies. While HCV infects the majority of injecting drug users (IDU), promising vaccine candidates are in development and models are needed to evaluate their potential impact. In Aim 1, Dr. Hahn will construct a mathematical model to predict HCV trends in IDU in San Francisco, in the absence of new or intensified interventions. In Aim 2, she will then model the effects of several interventions, such as vaccination, increased drug treatment, behavior change, and HGV treatment strategies on the predicted prevalence and incidence of HCV in IDU. In Aim 3, she will conduct a multidisciplinary prospective study of HCV serodiscordant injecting partnerships to compare the infectivity of acute HCV infection and HIV/HCV coinfection to chronic HCV mono-infection and to estimate HCV infectivity for use in the mathematical models. She will leverage data and infrastructure from several large studies to achieve these specific aims. This research will form the basis for a modeling study of HCV interventions in different geographic and injecting settings, including settings of high HIV prevalence, to be proposed in an R01 application before the end of the K award. Public Health Relevance: This training and research will equip Dr. Hahn with the tools to conduct modeling studies based on solid epidemiologic data to guide the planning of effective interventions to reduce the HCV epidemic in IDU.

描述（由申请人提供）：这是加利福尼亚大学旧金山分校的流行病学家Judith Hahn博士的K01奖申请。她的长期目标是成为开发数学模型的领导者，以指导吸毒者的健康政策，这些政策是由尤其是为此目的设计的经验研究所告知的。她在吸毒者中研究了艾滋病毒和HCV的丰富经验，并撰写了40篇出版物，其中7个作为第一作者。但是，她在少量研究（10-15％）的多项研究中担任共同研究的角色限制了她发展自己的研究领域的能力，尽管她接受了生物统计学和流行病学的培训，但她以前没有在数学建模方面进行正式培训。 K01支持将使她能够熟练（1）传染病的数学建模，以及（2）对疾病传播（尤其是伴侣研究）进行多学科研究以告知此类模型的多学科研究。她将受到国际疾病建模国际领导人DC Berkeley教授Wayne Getz博士的指导。她将由UCSF副教授Kimberly Page-Shafer博士指导，他专门研究多学科HCV和HIV预防研究。尽管HCV感染大多数注射吸毒者（IDU），但有希望的候选疫苗正在开发中，需要模型来评估其潜在影响。在AIM 1中，Hahn博士将在没有新的或加强干预措施的情况下构建一个数学模型，以预测旧金山IDU的HCV趋势。在AIM 2中，她将建模多种干预措施的影响，例如疫苗接种，增加药物治疗，行为改变和HGV治疗策略对IDU HCV的预测患病率和发病率。在AIM 3中，她将对HCV SerioDiscordant进行多学科的前瞻性研究，以比较急性HCV感染和HIV/HCV共感染的感染性与慢性HCV单一感染的感染性，并估算用于在数学模型中使用的HCV感染性。她将利用几项大型研究的数据和基础架构来实现这些特定目标。这项研究将构成对不同地理和注射设置中HCV干预措施的建模研究的基础，包括高艾滋病毒患病率的设置，在k奖授予结束之前将在R01应用中提出。公共卫生相关性：这项培训和研究将使Hahn博士提供基于稳固流行病学数据进行建模研究的工具，以指导计划有效干预措施，以减少IDU中HCV流行病。