Novel Assessments of the Health Impacts of Tropical Cyclones

热带气旋对健康影响的新评估

基本信息

批准号：
10813296
负责人：
Robbie M Parks
金额：
$ 24.9万
依托单位：
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2023-05-01 至 2026-04-30
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10813296
关键词：
Acute Algorithms Area Award Bayesian Analysis Bayesian Forecast Bayesian Modeling Big Data Case Study Cessation of life Characteristics Chronic Collaborations Communicable Diseases Communities Computer Vision Systems County Data Data Science Data Sources Death Rate Demographic Factors Disasters Disease Economic Factors Environment Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Hazards Environmental Health Epidemiologist Epidemiology Exposure to Failure Goals Growth Hazard Models Health Hospitalization Housing Human Hurricane Image Imagery Inequity Infrastructure Injury Institution Knowledge Machine Learning Measures Medicare Medicare/Medicaid Mental Health Mentorship Methodology Mission Modeling Molds Names National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Neighborhoods Outcome Phase Policies Public Health Reporting Research Respiratory Disease Seasons Societies Strategic Planning Stress Techniques Training United States United States National Center for Health Statistics Variant career climate disaster cohort community-level factor cost design environmental disparity environmental health disparity environmental justice experience health assessment health difference health inequalities hospitalization rates improved mortality neglect neural network novel programs skills social disparities social epidemiology social factors spatiotemporal trend vulnerable community

项目摘要

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT In the United States, tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, have a devastating impact on society. However, beyond some limited studies, there remains a critical research gap in understanding the full extent of the impact of tropical cyclones on health. The objective of this K99/R00 application is to ﬁll this research gap with several novel assessments of the health impacts of tropical cyclones. To be able to fulﬁl this objective, this K99/R00 application is interdisciplinary, involving the collaboration of experts in environmental epidemiology, exposure assessment, Bayesian statistics, machine learning, computer vision, and social epidemiology. The K99 phase is designed to augment the candidate's prior research experience through coursework, mentorship, and directed readings, with speciﬁc training in (1) climate-related disaster epidemiology and exposure assessment; (2) advanced Bayesian statistics methodology; (3) machine learning and computer vision for public health; and (4) social epidemiology in a disaster and public health context. The skills gained during this award are critical to the candidate's long-term goal to become a leading and methodologically strong environmental epidemiologist who conducts rigorous large-scale research that contributes to society's understanding of tropical cyclones and other environmental hazards to help inform policies in the United States and worldwide. The proposed project will draw on rich data sources on hospitalization (Medicare and Medicaid cohorts); death (National Center for Health Statistics); tropical cyclone exposure; and satellite- and ground-based imagery, all of which span several recent decades and cover all of the United States exposed to tropical cyclones. Aim 1 (K99 phase) will improve and harmonize estimation of excess hospitalizations and deaths after each named hurricane by (a) applying an ensemble of Bayesian models to hospitalization and mortality data to estimate weekly hospitalization and deaths rates that would have been expected had hurricane exposure not occurred; then (b) comparing the actual historical hospitalization and death rates to calculate excess hospitalizations and deaths. Aim 2 (R00 phase) will (a) determine the impact of repeated tropical cyclone exposure on chronic health outcomes by analyzing the association between tropical cyclone exposure and monthly hospitalizations or deaths by applying Bayesian spatio-temporal hazard models; then (b) accurately forecast health impacts by using results. Aim 3 (R00 phase) will characterize how physical neighborhood features explain differences in health impacts of tropical cyclones by (a) utilizing machine learning and computer vision techniques to identify various physical neighborhood features in tropical cyclone-exposed areas using satellite and street-level imagery; then (b) converting features into metrics in health models to investigate if and how health impacts of tropical cyclones vary by those metrics. The proposed training and research program both closely align with NIEHS's mission and Strategic Plan, and is responsive to NIEHS's priorities of Data Science and Big Data (Theme I, Goal 7), Environmental Health Disparities and Environmental Justice (Theme II, Goal 4), and Emerging Environmental Health Issues (Theme II, Goal 5).

项目概要/摘要在美国，飓风和热带风暴等热带气旋对当地造成了毁灭性影响。然而，除了一些有限的研究之外，在全面了解社会方面仍然存在着重大的研究差距。热带气旋对健康影响的程度。K99/R00 应用程序的目的是完成这项研究。与热带气旋对健康影响的多项新评估存在差距为了能够实现这一目标，该 K99/R00 应用程序是跨学科的，涉及环境流行病学专家的合作，暴露评估、贝叶斯统计、机器学习、计算机视觉和社会流行病学。阶段旨在通过课程作业、指导和定向阅读，并接受 (1) 气候相关灾害流行病学和暴露评估方面的专门培训； (2) 先进的贝叶斯统计方法；(3) 公共卫生领域的机器学习和计算机视觉；以及 (4) 灾害和公共卫生背景下的社会流行病学在此奖项中获得的技能对于以下方面至关重要。候选人的长期目标是成为领先且方法论强大的环境流行病学家他进行了严格的大规模研究，有助于社会了解热带气旋和其他环境危害，以帮助为美国和世界各地的政策提供信息。将利用丰富的住院数据来源（医疗保险和医疗补助队列）（国家中心）；热带气旋暴露；以及卫星和地面图像，所有这些都跨越多个近几十年来，覆盖美国所有地区的热带气旋目标 1（K99 阶段）将会改善。并通过以下方式统一对每次指定飓风后的超额住院治疗和死亡人数的估计：(a) 住院率和死亡率数据的贝叶斯模型集合，用于估计每周住院率和如果没有发生飓风，则预期的死亡率；然后 (b) 比较实际情况；历史住院率和死亡率，用于计算超额住院率和死亡率目标 2（R00 阶段）。将 (a) 通过分析确定反复接触热带气旋对慢性健康结果的影响应用贝叶斯分析热带气旋暴露与每月住院或死亡之间的关联时空危害模型；然后 (b) 使用目标 3（R00 阶段）准确预测健康影响。将描述物理邻域特征如何解释热带气旋对健康影响的差异 (a) 利用机器学习和计算机视觉技术来识别各种物理邻域特征使用卫星和街道图像来确定热带气旋暴露区域，然后 (b) 将特征转换为度量；健康模型来调查热带气旋对健康的影响是否以及如何因这些指标而变化。培训和研究计划均与 NIEHS 的使命和战略计划紧密结合，并且响应迅速 NIEHS 的数据科学和大数据优先事项（主题 I，目标 7）、环境健康差异和环境正义（主题 II，目标 4）和新出现的环境健康问题（主题 II，目标 5）。