MINIMUM LEGAL DRINKING AGE, YOUTH VIOLENCE, AND DROWNING

最低法定饮酒年龄、青少年暴力和溺水

• 批准号: 2046034
• 负责人: DAVID R. HEMENWAY
• 金额: $ 15.12万
• 依托单位: HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-06-01 至 1997-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2046034
• 关键词: accident proneness; accidents; adolescence (12-20); age difference; alcoholic beverage consumption; homicide; human data; injury prevention; legal /correctional; statistics /biometry; violence

APPLICANT'S ABSTRACT: The aim of the project is to determine the effect of changes in the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) on rates of youth (a) homicide, (b) aggravated assault, (c) suicide and (d) drowning. Injury and crime are among the more important health and social problems of American adolescents. Changes in the MLDA in many states in the 1970s and 1980s created a "natural experiment." Dozens of studies have explored the impact of MLDA changes on drunk driving and traffic injuries. Very few have examine the effect on other alcohol-related youth problems. Simple before-and-after state-by-state comparisons will be made, but the primary model is an econometric "fixed effects" model, using pooled time- series and cross-sectional state data for the 48 contiguous states from 1970- 1990 (about 1,000 observations). The dependent variable is the log of the particular youth injury or youth violence rate. Data come from the National Center for Health Statistics death certificate tapes and from the Uniform Crime Reports. The key independent variable is a dummy variable for the MLDA for the specific state-year. Other dummy variables for the "state" effect and the "year" effect are included as controls. Separate regressions will also be run by race and sex. MLDA enforcement proxies (e.g. alcohol arrest rates) will be added in subsequent runs. To ensure robustness of results, a second econometric model will be employed for homicides and aggravated assault. State and year dummy variables will be replaced by specific factors which are expected to affect these crimes. The theoretical framework is the economic model of rational behavior. Since crime and law enforcement are interrelated, a simultaneous equation will be used. The equation will be estimated in log linear form, and the coefficients estimated using two-state weighted least squares. The law enforcement variable is the arrest rate. Independent variables in the model include proxies for alcohol prices and narcotic consumption as well as education, urbanization, migration, divorce and strictness of handgun control laws. Most observational studies can determine only associations, not causation, for associations can be explained in other ways. By contrast, analysis of the MLDA natural experiment can indicate whether an intervention designed to affect alcohol availability among youth also affects crime and drowning.

申请人的摘要：该项目的目的是确定效果 最低法律饮酒年龄变化（MLDA）的年轻人率 （a）凶杀案，（b）加重袭击，（c）自杀和（d）溺水。 伤害和犯罪是更重要的健康和社会问题之一 美国青少年。 1970年代和1980年代，许多州的MLDA变化创造了一个 “自然实验。” 数十个研究探索了 MLDA因酒后驾车和交通伤害而发生变化。 很少有 检查对其他与酒精有关的青年问题的影响。 将进行简单的前后状态比较，但是 主要模型是一种计量经济学的“固定效应”模型，使用合并的时间 - 来自48个连续状态的串联和横截面数据 1970-1990（约1,000个观察结果）。 因变量是日志 特定的青年受伤或青年暴力率 数据来自 国家卫生统计中心死亡证书录像带和 摘自《统一犯罪报告》。 关键自变量是虚拟的 特定状态年的MLDA可变。 其他假人 包括“状态”效应和“年”效应的变量被包括在内 控件。 种族和性行为也将单独进行回归。 MLDA 将添加执法代理（例如酒精逮捕率） 随后的运行。 为了确保结果的鲁棒性，第二计计量经济学模型将是 从事凶杀和加重袭击。 状态和年假人 变量将被预期的特定因素取代 影响这些犯罪。 理论框架是经济模型 理性行为。 由于犯罪和执法部门相互关联， 将使用同时的方程式。 方程将在 日志线性形式以及使用两态加权估算的系数 最小二乘。 执法变量是逮捕率。 模型中的自变量包括酒精价格的代理 和麻醉的消费以及教育，城市化，移民， 手枪控制法的离婚和严格性。 大多数观察性研究只能决定关联，而不是 因果关系，可以通过其他方式解释关联。 经过 对比，对MLDA自然实验的分析可以指示是否表明是否是否 一种旨在影响青年酒精供应的干预措施 影响犯罪和溺水。