The Divorce Decline and Relationship Stability: 1970-2019

离婚率下降和关系稳定性：1970-2019

• 批准号: 10741358
• 负责人: Christine R. Schwartz
• 金额: $ 15.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-18 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10741358
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Age; Area; Child; Child Welfare; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Divorce; Education; Elderly; Ethnic Origin; Event History Analysis; Family; Family Demographies; Goals; Growth; Health; Health and Retirement Study; Income; Individual; Inequality; Knowledge; Life; Living Arrangement; Marital separation; Marriage; Marriage Ages; Measurement; Morphologic artifacts; Needs Assessment; Older Population; Parenthood Status; Parents; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Population Distributions; Psyche structure; Race; Reporting; Research; Series; Source; Standardization; Subgroup; Surveys; Time; Time trend; Uncertainty; United States; Update; Vital Statistics; Woman; aged; cohort; college; data quality; falls; interest; multiple data sources; optimism; population health; population survey; programs; public health relevance; sex; socioeconomics; trend; trend analysis; welfare

Title: The Divorce Decline and Relationship Stability: 1970-2019 ABSTRACT/PROJECT SUMMARY To assess fundamental questions such as “what is happening to the family?” in the United States, we need to understand basic trends in family patterns. An area in which there are gaps in our knowledge—but is of deep importance to individuals and the public—is trends in divorce and relationship stability. Issues of data quality, the rise of cohabitation and the increasing selectivity of marriage, changes in population composition, and diverging patterns by education and race/ethnicity complicate analyses of trends. The primary goal of this research is to determine the extent to which the observed decline of divorce in the U.S. since the late 1970s should be interpreted as evidence of increased coresidential relationship stability. To address this question, we combine two data sets that contain information on marriage and cohabitation entry and dissolution that together avoid many of the pitfalls of prior data sources; estimate the extent to which changes in selection into marriage and population composition explain trends; incorporate the often overlooked older- population who now constitute important contributors to dissolution rates; and examine differentials by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status. Given that even recent research on divorce and marital dissolution finds, on average, negative associations with adult and child well-being (e.g., Kim, 2011; Leopold, 2018), should the decline in divorce rates since the late 1970s be interpreted as a cause for optimism about the stability of committed romantic relationships in the U.S.? There are several reasons to doubt this interpretation. First, recent research has raised the possibility that the divorce decline is an artifact of data problems and changes in population composition (Kennedy & Ruggles, 2014) rather than a true increase in relationship stability. Second, the divorce rate does not capture other kinds of relationship dissolution such as marital separation and cohabitation breakup. Thus, an examination of divorce rates alone underestimates the dissolution of coresidential unions. Third, there are sizeable differences in marital dissolution by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status. Marital dissolution has only declined for women with a college degree and not for those with less education (Martin, 2006), and trends also differ by race/ethnicity (Raley et al., 2015). But combined union dissolution trends for coresidential unions by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status have not been estimated to our knowledge. Our research addresses each of these issues. The results will allow us to assess whether the decline in divorce observed in past studies can be interpreted as evidence of a decline in relationship instability, and if so, the extent to which this is shared across key population subgroups in the U.S.

标题：离婚衰落与关系稳定性：1970-2019 摘要/项目摘要 评估基本问题，例如“家庭发生了什么？”在美国，我们需要 了解家庭模式的基本趋势。我们知识上存在差距的领域，但很深 对个人和公众的重要性 - 离婚和关系稳定的趋势。数据质量问题， 同居的兴起以及婚姻的选择性不断提高，人口组成的变化以及 教育和种族/民族的分歧模式使趋势的分析变得复杂。这个主要目标 研究是为了确定自晚期以来的离婚程度的程度 1970年代应被解释为排列关系稳定性增加的证据。解决 这个问题，我们结合了两个数据集，其中包含有关婚姻和同居进入的信息以及 溶解在一起避免许多先前数据源的陷阱；估计变化的程度 在选择婚姻和人口组成时，解释了趋势；结合经常被忽视的老年人 现在构成了解散率的重要贡献者的人口；并检查差异 教育，种族/种族和父母身份。 鉴于，即使最近对离婚和婚姻解散的研究平均也会发现负面关联 随着成人和儿童福祉（例如，Kim，2011; Leopold，2018），离婚率下降以来 1970年代后期被解释为对恋爱关系的稳定性的乐观原因 我们。？有几个理由怀疑这种解释。首先，最近的研究提高了可能性 离婚的下降是数据问题和人口组成变化的工件（肯尼迪和 Ruggles，2014年），而不是真正的关系稳定性。其次，离婚率没有捕获 其他类型的关系解散，例如婚姻分离和共同分裂。那，一个 仅检查离婚率的检查就低估了核心工会的解散。第三，有 通过教育，种族/种族和父母身份，婚姻解散的差异很大。婚姻 对于拥有大学学位的女性而不是教育较少的女性（马丁，马丁， 2006年），趋势也因种族/种族而异（Raley等，2015）。但是联合联盟解散趋势 尚未估计我们 知识。 我们的研究解决了这些问题的每一个。结果将使我们能够评估是否下降 在过去的研究中观察到的离婚可以解释为关系不稳定的证据，如果是的，则可以解释为 在美国关键人群亚组中共享这一点的程度