Development and validation of an agent-based model to promote evidence-based control of Taenia solium cysticercosis

开发和验证基于代理的模型，以促进猪带绦虫囊尾蚴病的循证控制

• 批准号: 10654787
• 负责人: Seth E O'Neal
• 金额: $ 63.33万
• 依托单位: OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10654787
• 关键词: Address; Africa; Africa South of the Sahara; African; Antiparasitic Agents; Area; Asia; Behavior; Behavior Therapy; Biological; Brain; Calibration; Cestoda; Clinical Research; Collaborations; Combined Modality Therapy; Consumption; Country; Cysticercosis; Data; Defecation; Development; Economics; Environment; Environmental Pollution; Epilepsy; European; Exposure to; Face; Family suidae; Feces; Frequencies; Goals; Health; Human; Immunity; Infection; Infrastructure; Intervention; Intervention Trial; Investments; Laboratory Study; Latin America; Lesion; Modeling; Movement; Neurocysticercosis; Outcome; Parasites; Pattern; Performance; Persons; Peru; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policy Maker; Population; Positioning Attribute; Predisposition; Probability; Process; Productivity; Public Health; Publishing; Recommendation; Research; Resistance; Resources; Risk Estimate; Running; Sanitation; Series; Structure; Taenia solium; Target Populations; Teniasis; Testing; Uncertainty; Update; Vaccination; Vaccines; Validation; Work; World Health Organization; Zambia; acquired epilepsy; calcification; control trial; cost; data repository; design; disability-adjusted life years; disorder control; egg; epidemiology study; evidence base; experience; experimental study; field study; flexibility; foodborne; human migration; improved; in silico; infectious disease model; laboratory experiment; low and middle-income countries; models and simulation; novel; novel diagnostics; predictive modeling; preventable epilepsy; programs; prospective; rural area; scale up; screening; seropositive; social; success; timeline; tool; transmission process; uptake; working group

PROJECT SUMMARY Taenia solium, the pork tapeworm, is a leading cause of acquired epilepsy in low and middle income countries. Endemic transmission occurs primarily in rural areas where pigs are allowed to roam freely and consume human feces. Control and/or elimination of T. solium transmission is possible through application of anti-parasitic treatment to human tapeworm carriers or pigs, vaccination of pigs, or other social-behavioral interventions (e.g., sanitation, corralling). The critical question that policy-makers now face is which intervention strategies should be recommended for different endemic settings – specifically, what intervention combinations, frequencies, durations, and target populations are optimal for achieving a given control outcome? Infectious disease models are excellent tools for answering these questions, as they can be deployed to test a wide range of strategies in a variety of settings prior to investing massive resources in prospective trials. While prior models for T. solium transmission have been previously developed, no existing model has been validated with data from prospective trials, and none incorporate a spatial framework that can account for clustered transmission patterns observed in endemic areas. These limitations have severely limited the utility of prior models. This proposal specifically addresses these limitations to ensure that the delivered model can be directly applied to improve control and elimination for T. solium. The objective of the proposed research is to develop a definitive T. solium simulation model called CystiMASON, which will build on our group’s prior modeling experience (CystiSim and CystiAgent models), and address the shortcomings of previous T. solium models. To achieve this goal, we propose a series of field and laboratory experiments that will define environmental and biological parameters critical to CystiMASON accuracy (Aim 1). These experiments will increase the precision of model parameters and reduce uncertainty in model outcomes. As data from these studies are generated, they will be integrated into the successive version of CystiMASON, which will be calibrated and validated using a repository of data from prospective trials conducted in Peru (Aim 2). Finally, we will use data available from prospective trials conducted in Zambia to validate CystiMASON to a sub-Saharan African setting and compare the accuracy of CyistMASON in this endemic setting with other available models (Aim 3). After the completion of this research, the final CystiMASON model will be a key resource for policy-makers who seek to evaluate strategies for the control or elimination of cysticercosis in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.

项目摘要 猪肉tape虫的Taenia Solium是低收入国家和中等收入国家获得癫痫病的主要原因。 地方性传播主要发生在允许猪自由漫游并消耗人类的农村地区 屎。通过应用抗寄生虫，可以控制和/或消除T. solium的传播 治疗人tap虫载体或猪，猪的疫苗接种或其他社交行为干预措施（例如， 卫生，Corralling）。政策制定者现在面临的关键问题是哪些干预策略应 建议用于不同的内在设置 - 具体来说，什么干预组合，频率， 持续时间和目标人群对于实现给定的控制结果是最佳选择吗？传染病模型 是回答这些问题的绝佳工具，因为它们可以部署以测试各种策略 在前瞻性试验中投资大量资源之前，各种环境。而T. solidum的先前模型 以前已经开发了传输，没有现有模型已通过潜在的数据验证 试验，没有一个合并的空间框架可以说明观察到的群集传输模式 在内在区域。这些限制严重限制了先前模型的效用。该提案专门 解决这些限制，以确保可以直接应用已交付的模型来改善控制和 消除T. solium。 拟议的研究的目的是开发一个确定的T. solium模拟模型，称为Cystimason， 这将基于我们小组先前的建模经验（Cyistisim和Cystiatigent模型），并解决 以前的T. solium模型的缺点。为了实现这一目标，我们提出了一系列领域和实验室 定义对囊肿准确性至关重要的环境和生物学参数的实验（AIM 1）。 这些实验将提高模型参数的精度，并降低模型结果的不确定性。 随着这些研究的数据产生，它们将被整合到成功的Cystimason，即 它将使用秘鲁进行的前瞻性试验的数据存储库进行校准和验证（AIM 2）。最后，我们将使用在赞比亚进行的前瞻性试验可用的数据来验证囊肿 撒哈拉以南非洲的环境，并将这种内在环境中的囊肿的准确性与其他 可用型号（AIM 3）。完成这项研究后，最终的囊肿模型将是关键 寻求评估拉丁语控制或消除囊性策略的政策制定者的资源 美国和撒哈拉以南非洲。

项目成果

CystiHuman: A model of human neurocysticercosis.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010118
• 发表时间: 2022-05
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3

Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission ("CystiAgent") against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009885
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: PLoS neglected tropical diseases
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Pray IW;Pizzitutti F;Bonnet G;Gonzales-Gustavson E;Wakeland W;Pan WK;Lambert WE;Gonzalez AE;Garcia HH;O'Neal SE;Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru.
• 通讯作者: Cysticercosis Working Group in Peru.