Estimating the Price Elasticities of Demand for Illicit Drugs

估计非法药物需求的价格弹性

• 批准号: 7573045
• 负责人: Todd Alden Olmstead
• 金额: $ 22.48万
• 依托单位: GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7573045
• 关键词: Adopted; Affect; Alcohols; Behavioral; Cellular Phone; Cocaine; Consumption; Coupled; Crime; Data; Data Collection; Diazepam; Drug Abuse Treatment Services; Drug Costs; Drug usage; Drug user; Effectiveness; Elasticity; Future; Goals; Hand; Healthcare; Heroin; Heroin Users; Illicit Drugs; Imprisonment; Income; Intervention; Knowledge; Laboratories; Laboratory Study; Lead; Literature; Marijuana; Methadone; Methods; Narcotic Antagonists; Pattern; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policies; Price; Public Health; Reporting; Research; Sales; Sampling; Services; Study Subject; Subgroup; System; Testing; United States; Validity of Results; Voice; base; cost; design; drug abuser; drug quality; economic cost; effective therapy; improved; methadone maintenance; novel; opioid withdrawal; population survey; prevent; productivity loss; public health relevance; research study; response; social

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): When evaluating the effectiveness of alternative policies aimed at reducing the cost of illicit drug use, two pieces of information are required: (1) the impact of the policies on drug prices faced by users, and (2) the change in users' demand for drugs associated with a given change in drug prices (i.e., the price elasticity of demand). However, few studies report estimates of the price elasticities of demand for illicit drugs. Moreover, although the scientific literature presumes that demand elasticities depend on other factors, including treatment status, little evidence exists to support these presumptions. The planned research will combine novel ambulatory data collection methods with a within-subjects design to estimate demand elasticities in both real-world and laboratory settings. Two groups of heroin users (N = 60 in each group), varying by treatment status, will report on their daily drug purchases during two waves of data collection using cell phones. Each wave will last two weeks, and consecutive waves will be separated by six months. An interactive voice response system will call subjects daily during each wave to collect information on (1) the types of drugs purchased for personal consumption, (2) the amounts purchased, (3) the expected purity/quality of the drugs, and (4) prices paid for each purchase since the last call. Real-world demand elasticities for heroin, cocaine, valium, alcohol and marijuana will be estimated separately for each subject group, thereby filling an important gap in the literature and informing future policy decisions. In addition, the subjects will participate in two laboratory experiments-one during each wave-in which they will make hypothetical drug purchases at varying drug prices. Demand elasticities from the laboratory experiments will be estimated and compared to their real-world counterparts, thereby testing the external validity of the laboratory method. If valid, this method can be used to estimate demand elasticities at much smaller expense than is typically incurred in real-world settings. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The purpose of this research is to determine how illicit drug users change their drug consumption patterns in response to changes in illicit drug prices and personal income. These behavioral changes will be quantified using elasticities of demand (cross-price, own-price, and income). This knowledge may ultimately help policymakers evaluate and improve policy interventions aimed at reducing the societal cost of illicit drug use in the US. For example, if treatment does substantially impact the demand for illicit drugs, this information may pave the way for further expansion of drug abuse treatment services. This application aims to provide new estimates from laboratory based and real-world based settings of the price elasticity of demand for illicit drugs using a novel sample of heroin and polydrug users, some of whom are currently in methadone treatment.

描述（由申请人提供）：在评估旨在降低非法药物使用成本的替代政策的有效性时，需要两种信息时，（1）政策对用户面临的药物价格的影响，以及（2）用户对药物对药物价格变化相关的药物需求的变化（即，需求价格弹性）。但是，很少有研究报告对非法药物需求价格弹性的估计。此外，尽管科学文献认为弹性取决于其他因素，包括治疗状况，但几乎没有证据支持这些假设。计划的研究将将新颖的门诊数据收集方法与受试者内部设计相结合，以估计现实世界和实验室环境中的需求弹性。两组海洛因使用者（每组中的n = 60）因治疗状态而异，将在使用手机收集两次数据浪潮中报告其日常药物购买。每个波浪将持续两个星期，连续的波浪将分开六个月。互动语音响应系统每天在每次浪潮中每天致电受试者，以收集（1）购买用于个人消费的药物的类型，（2）购买的金额，（3）自上次通话以来每次购买的预期纯度/质量；（4）每次购买的价格。对于每个主题组，将对海洛因，可卡因，瓦恩，酒精和大麻的现实需求弹性进行估计，从而填补文献中的重要差距并告知未来的政策决策。此外，受试者将参加两个实验室实验 - 在每次浪潮中，他们将以不同的药品价格进行假设的药物购买。将估算实验实验的需求弹性，并将其与其现实世界对应物进行比较，从而测试实验室方法的外部有效性。如果有效，则可以使用此方法来估算需求弹性，而不是现实世界中通常发生的费用要小得多。公共卫生相关性：这项研究的目的是确定非法吸毒者如何改变其药物消耗方式，以应对非法药物价格和个人收入的变化。这些行为变化将使用需求弹性（跨价格，自有价和收入）来量化。这些知识最终可以帮助决策者评估和改善旨在减少美国非法药物使用的社会成本的政策干预措施。例如，如果治疗确实影响了对非法药物的需求，则此信息可能为进一步扩展药物滥用治疗服务铺平了道路。 该应用程序旨在通过使用新型海洛因和Polydrug用户样本来提供基于实验室和现实世界的基于实验室和现实世界的新估计，其中一些人目前正在美沙酮治疗中。