Climate Penalty: Climate-driven Increases in Ozone and PM2.5 Levels and Mortality

气候惩罚：气候驱动的臭氧和 PM2.5 水平和死亡率增加

• 批准号: 10372176
• 负责人: Howard H Chang
• 金额: $ 19.54万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-03-16 至 2023-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10372176
• 关键词: Address; Adverse effects; Affect; Air; Air Pollution; American; Big Data; Cessation of life; Chemicals; Chronic; Climate; Coupled; Data; Data Set; Databases; Dependence; Environmental Policy; Epidemiology; Frequencies; Future; Global Warming; Goals; Health; Health Insurance; Hospitalization; Human; Individual; Knowledge; Lead; Link; Literature; Longitudinal cohort; Measures; Mediation; Mediator of activation protein; Medicare; Modeling; Nitrogen Dioxide; Outcome; Output; Ozone; Pathway interactions; Personal Satisfaction; Persons; Planet Earth; Policies; Policy Making; Pollution; Population; Population Study; Positioning Attribute; Public Health; Quality Control; Reaction; Reporting; Research; Resolution; Risk Assessment; Statistical Data Interpretation; Statistical Methods; Suggestion; Surface; Temperature; Testing; Update; Weather; air pollution control; anthropogenesis; atmospheric chemistry; base; climate change; climate impact; climate-related health; cohort; epidemiology study; experience; fine particles; gradient boosting; human old age (65+); improved; machine learning model; mortality; neural network; oxidation; pollutant; prevent; prospective; random forest; resilience; response; tropospheric ozone; ventilation; volatile organic compound; warm temperature

Project Summary Climate change is the greatest public health challenge of the 21st century. While numerous pathways of the health impact of climate change have been proposed, the “climate penalty” effect, i.e., a warming temperature worsens ambient air quality and consequently influences human health, remains poorly understood, resulting in an underestimated public health burden associated with global warming. Our previous epidemiological studies have reported that higher summer mean temperatures and higher PM2.5 concentrations are each associated with increased all-cause mortality in the Medicare population (aged ≥65) in the Southeastern US (SEUS)1, 2. Satellite and ground-based observations suggest a strong dependence of air pollution on interannual variabilities of summer mean temperature in SEUS3. These findings suggest that the indirect health effect of temperature via the climate penalty on air quality can be potentially important in the SEUS region, in addition to the direct adverse effects that we observed. However, clear epidemiological evidence of the air pollution serving as a mediator for the health effects of temperature, and accurate estimate of this effect is still missing in current literature. Herein, drawing on our preliminary results, we hypothesize that rising temperature can indirectly affect all-cause mortality via worsening both PM2.5 and ozone levels in the SEUS. We propose a study that will leverage the Medicare cohort from 2000-2016 (124 million person-years), the largest longitudinal cohort available for the SEUS and the high-resolution temperature, PM2.5, and O3 data, to investigate all-cause mortality in response to the “climate penalty” effect using a mediation statistical analysis. Specifically, in this project we will (1) update the present- day temperature and ozone predictions at 1-km2 grids across the SEUS through 2016 by incorporating ensemble averaging of machine learning models; (2) quantify the health effect of “climate penalty” on all-cause mortality using a mediation analysis, and explore whether mitigating anthropogenic air pollution emissions might serve as a pathway of climate change adaptation; (3) perform a risk assessment on the excess deaths related to the climate penalty on air pollution for the mid- (2050) and late-21st century (2100), using climate model output, chemical transport modeling, along with the top-down estimate of “climate penalty” from Aim 2. The proposed research will improve understanding of the interplays between climate, air pollution, and human health based on real-world big data, and provide epidemiological evidence of an important pathway that climate change adversely affects human health, with immediate relevance to climate and environmental policymaking.

项目摘要 气候变化是21世纪最大的公共卫生挑战。而众多的途径 已经提出了气候变化的健康影响，即“气候惩罚”效应，即温暖的温度 恶化的环境空气质量，因此影响人类健康，仍然了解不足，导致 与全球变暖有关的被低估的公共卫生烧伤。我们以前的流行病学研究 据报道，较高的夏季平均温度和较高的PM2.5浓度与 在美国东南部（SEUS）1，2。 和地面观察结果表明，空气污染对年际变化的强烈依赖性 SEUS3中的夏季平均温度。这些发现表明温度通过 除直接不利外，对空气质量的气候罚款可能很重要 我们观察到的效果。但是，空气污染作为调解人的清晰流行病学证据 在当前文献中，温度的健康效应和这种效果的准确估计仍然缺乏。在此处， 利用我们的初步结果，我们假设温度上升会间接影响全因死亡率 通过担心SEU中的PM2.5和臭氧水平。我们建议一项将利用Medicare的研究 从2000 - 2016年（1.24亿人年）的队列，最大的纵向队列可用于SEUS和 高分辨率温度PM2.5和O3数据，以调查针对“气候”的全因死亡率 使用调解统计分析的惩罚效果。具体来说，在此项目中，我们将（1）更新当前 通过合并合奏，直到2016年，在整个SEUS的1 km2网格处的日温度和臭氧预测 平均机器学习模型； （2）量化“气候惩罚”对全因死亡率的健康影响 使用中介分析，并探索缓解人为空气污染的排放是否可以作为 气候变化适应的途径； （3）对与与之相关的多余死亡进行风险评估 使用气候模型输出（2050年）和21世纪中期（2050）和21世纪中期（2100）对气候污染的气候罚款， 化学运输建模，以及AIM 2的“气候罚款”自上而下的估计。 研究将改善基于气候，空气污染和人类健康之间的相互作用的理解 现实世界中的大数据，并提供了一个重要途径的流行病学证据，气候变化是不利的 影响人类健康，与气候和环境决策直接相关。

项目成果

Short-term associations between warm-season ambient temperature and emergency department visits for Alzheimer's disease and related dementia in five US states.

美国五个州暖季环境温度与阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆症急诊就诊之间的短期关联。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.115176
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Environmental research
• 影响因子: 8.3
• 作者: Zhang,Yuzi;Ebelt,StefanieT;Shi,Liuhua;Scovronick,NoahC;D'Souza,RohanR;Steenland,Kyle;Chang,HowardH
• 通讯作者: Chang,HowardH