Project 2: Mathematical modeling of factors that influence children's respiratory health

项目2：影响儿童呼吸健康因素的数学模型

• 批准号: 10362585
• 负责人: Erin L Landguth
• 金额: $ 23.46万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-04-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10362585
• 关键词: Acute; Address; Affect; Air; Air Pollution; Algorithms; Area; Assimilations; Asthma; Biological Models; Bronchiectasis; Centers for Population Health; Child; Childhood; Chronic lung disease; Climate; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Complex; Data; Disease Management; Economics; Ensure; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemic; Event; Future; Geography; Goals; Health; Health Personnel; Health Professional; Hospitalization; Household; Housing; Incidence; Indoor Air Quality; Infection; Influenza; Intervention; Investigation; Link; Lower Respiratory Tract Infection; Maps; Measures; Medical Records; Modeling; Montana; Performance; Policies; Pollution; Populations at Risk; Prevalence; Process; Public Health; Reliability of Results; Research; Resolution; Respiratory Tract Infections; Risk; Risk Assessment; Rural; Schools; Socioeconomic Factors; Statistical Models; Structure; Testing; Time; Translating; Uncertainty; Water Pollution; Wildfire; climatic factors; data modeling; data streams; design; dynamic system; experience; fine particles; health care availability; improved; indexing; infection risk; mathematical model; mortality; multiple data sources; neglect; novel; nutrition; prospective; respiratory health; rural area; social; sociodemographic factors; sociodemographics; socioeconomics; spatiotemporal; tool; trend; weather patterns

Project Summary/Abstract Rural areas of the western U.S. experience an increased burden and disparities in children's respiratory health compared to urban centers. Of particular concern in the western U.S. are more intense wildfires, which increase air pollution in surrounding areas and affect regional air quality. Assessing lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) risk in some areas of the west is also complicated by complex topography, which creates steep air quality gradients during inversion events common in both winter and summer. A comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying LRTI epidemics among neglected at-risk populations at the rural state level, such as Montana, is poor. Thus a thorough investigation of the multidimensional socio- demographic-climate-pollution processes affecting children's respiratory health must be conducted in order to improve adequate policy and public health actions to address both current and future climate-pollution challenges. We will gather multiple data sources, including novel wildfire-induced exposure and inversion prone layers, in order to describe the distribution, timing and intensity of respiratory infections unique to Montana's children (Aim 1). We will develop three independent, rigorous, and scientifically-defensible modeling frameworks to help identify the causal drivers of LRTIs among children in Montana (Aim 2). Finally, we will develop a Montana LRTI risk index that can be used as an indicator for current risk within Montana and a means to measure progress, analyze trends, and quantify uncertainty in LRTI risk for Montana's public. Our combined mapping and surveillance platform, data assimilation and multi-modeling approach, and LRTI risk assessment index will greatly help the identification of public health threats of LRTIs among Montana's children. Ultimately, the results we will generate will inform interventions to mitigate LRTI among children in MT. As an intermediate step, the findings from this project will be used to leverage and design an expanded study of LRTI throughout the western U.S.

项目摘要/摘要 美国西部的农村地区经历了儿童呼吸健康的负担和差异的增加 与城市中心相比。在美国西部特别关注的是更激烈的野火， 增加周围地区的空气污染并影响区域空气质量。评估下呼吸道 西方某些地区的感染（LRTI）风险也因复杂地形而变得复杂，这会产生陡峭的地形 反转事件中的空气质量梯度在冬季和夏季常见。全面 理解农村忽视的高风险人群中LRTI流行的机制 蒙大拿州等国家一级很差。因此，对多维社会 - 必须进行影响儿童呼吸健康的人口 - 气候污染过程 改善适当的政策和公共卫生行动，以解决当前和未来的气候污染 挑战。我们将收集多个数据源，包括新型野火诱导的暴露和反转 俯卧层，以描述呼吸感染的分布，时机和强度 蒙大拿州的孩子（目标1）。我们将开发三个独立，严格和科学不可证性的建模 框架以帮助识别蒙大拿州儿童中LRTI的因果驱动因素（AIM 2）。最后，我们会的 开发蒙大拿州LRTI风险指数，该指数可用作蒙大拿州当前风险的指标 衡量进度，分析趋势并量化蒙大拿州公众LRTI风险的不确定性的手段。我们的 结合映射和监视平台，数据同化和多模型方法以及LRTI风险 评估指数将极大地帮助识别蒙大拿州的LRTI的公共卫生威胁 孩子们。最终，我们将产生的结果将告知干预措施，以减轻儿童的LRTI 公吨。作为中间步骤，该项目的发现将用于利用和设计扩展 整个美国西部LRTI的研究