Microsimulation of Obesity Policies

肥胖政策的微观模拟

• 批准号: 9269471
• 负责人: ROLAND STURM
• 金额: $ 50.29万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-05-06 至 2021-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9269471
• 关键词: Address; Agreement; Area; Australia; Behavioral; Chronic Disease; Country; Data; Development; Diet; Economics; Effectiveness; Energy Intake; Epidemic; Fill-It; Food; Future; Health; Health behavior; Individual; Industry; Informal Social Control; Internet; Intervention; Label; Laws; Media Campaign; Methodology; Mexico; Modeling; Obesity; Outcome; Physical activity; Physical environment; Policies; Policy Maker; Population; Population Characteristics; Prevalence; Prevention; Process; Research Personnel; Risk Factors; Role; Running; Sampling Errors; Shapes; Social Environment; Source; Suggestion; Taxes; Testing; Transportation; Uncertainty; base; burden of illness; case-based; cost; cost effective; energy balance; interest; intervention effect; mathematical model; models and simulation; obesity prevention; public health relevance; response; social; stem; support tools; tool

 DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The prevalence of obesity has increased dramatically over the last three decades, as has its corresponding burden of disease. Much of that burden is preventable. But while there is general agreement about the role of economic, physical, and social environments in shaping health behaviors, it is unclear how suggested policies perform in terms of effectiveness and costs across countries. There is no shortage of suggestions how to address the obesity epidemic - the gap is how to assess the likely long-run effects of interventions and how that varies by country or population. As quality and quantity of data vary across countries and the ultimate outcomes of interest (prevention of chronic illness at the population level) will not manifest for many years following an intervention, mathematical models like the one we develop in this project are needed to integrate the information from multiple sources. This project develops a microsimulation model (MSM) to analyze and predict consequences of obesity prevention policies across countries and to provide an integrated decision support tool. The specific aims of this project are to: (1) Develop, test and validate a dynamic microsimulation modeling platform, capturing both individual and social dynamics of diet, physical activity, and BMI for the US, Australia, Mexico, and 4 other countries; (2) Use the platform to project the health, social and economic consequences associated with current behavioral risk factors; (3) Assess the outcomes and costs of policies in multiple areas (food taxes and subsidies, labeling laws, active transportation, media campaigns, voluntary industry efforts/self-regulation) at reducing the social harms associated with inactivity and excess caloric intake; (4) Provide an open internet version of the model to researchers and policy makers to conduct their own calculations.

 描述（由申请人提供）：在过去的三十年里，肥胖的患病率急剧增加，相应的疾病负担也随之增加，但尽管人们普遍认为经济、身体和健康的作用是可以预防的。社会环境对健康行为的影响，目前还不清楚建议的政策在各国的有效性和成本方面表现如何。关于如何解决肥胖流行的建议并不缺乏，差距在于如何评估干预措施可能产生的长期影响。以及这如何因国家或人口而异。不同国家的数据量各不相同，最终的结果（在人口层面预防慢性病）在干预后的许多年内都不会显现出来，因此需要像我们在本项目中开发的数学模型来整合来自该项目开发了一个微观模拟模型（MSM）来分析和预测各国肥胖预防政策的后果，并提供综合决策支持工具。该项目的具体目标是：（1）开发、测试和验证一个模型。动态微观模拟建模平台，捕捉个人和社会美国、澳大利亚、墨西哥和其他 4 个国家的饮食、体力活动和体重指数动态；(2) 使用该平台预测与当前行为风险因素相关的健康、社会和经济后果；以及多个领域的政策成本（食品税和补贴、标签法、主动运输、媒体宣传、自愿行业努力/自我监管），以减少与不活动和热量过多相关的社会危害 （4）向研究人员和政策制定者提供模型的开放互联网版本，以供他们自己进行计算。