Improving Robustness of a Tactical Model of Aedes/Dengue Dynamics

提高伊蚊/登革热动力学战术模型的稳健性

• 批准号: 8320116
• 负责人: FRED GOULD
• 金额: $ 33.28万
• 依托单位: NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY RALEIGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-15 至 2015-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8320116
• 关键词: Address; Aedes; Affect; Area; Arthropods; Behavior; Benefits and Risks; Biology; Bite; Blood; Characteristics; Chemicals; Cities; Cohort Analysis; Collaborations; Communities; Computer Simulation; Country; Coupled; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever; Dengue Shock Syndrome; Dengue Virus; Development; Dimensions; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Disease Vectors; Empirical Research; Engineering; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Ethics; Female; Fertility; Fever; Genes; Goals; Health system; Herd Immunity; Household; Housing; Human; Human Activities; Individual; Insecta; Insecticides; Intervention; Knowledge; Larva; Life; Location; Longevity; Measles; Measures; Modeling; Mosquito Control; Movement; Neighborhoods; Pattern; Peru; Population; Population Dynamics; Procedures; Process; Public Health; Research; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Scientist; Simulate; System; Testing; Transgenic Organisms; Travel; Trust; Uncertainty; Vaccines; Virus Diseases; Work; bone; climate change; density; design; feeding; improved; innovation; insect disease; models and simulation; novel; novel strategies; novel vaccines; operation; programs; reproductive; research study; response; tool; transmission process; vector; vector mosquito

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Dengue is a mosquito vectored viral disease of humans that is now considered the most important arthropod-borne human viral disease. An estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever (break-bone fever) and about 500,000 cases of the more life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever occur annually. Beyond direct impact on afflicted individuals, urban dengue epidemics overwhelm public health systems of tropical countries. The principal vector of dengue virus is the mosquito, Aedes aegypti, that lives in close association with humans and feed on human blood. The only currently effective way to suppress dengue epidemics involves household insecticide sprays. These sprays can be effective if used efficiently, but this is commonly not the case. Research efforts are underway to develop vaccines against dengue and to create genetically engineered strains of the mosquitoes with genes that block transmission of the dengue from the mosquito to humans. Although there is great hope for these new approaches as well as for improving conventional chemical control of the mosquito, there are many unknowns about the epidemiology of dengue that make it difficult to determine how one would deploy a new vaccine, engineered mosquito, or novel insecticide. We also don't know if it would be most beneficial to use the single most effective new tactic alone, or to use a combination of tactics. Because experimental studies of the efficacy of a new intervention must typically be conducted at a city-wide level, such experiments are generally not feasible or ethical to conduct. Computer simulation studies have often offered an alternative to direct experimentation in scientific fields ranging from space travel to global climate change. Simulations of mathematical models have been a key factor in studying directly transmitted diseases such as measles, but have been used less in studies of insect-vectored diseases. Our overall goal is to create and test the most comprehensive and robust simulation model of Aedes aegypti/dengue dynamics in order to provide research, regulatory, and management communities with a modeling tool for effectively guiding mosquito vector management and vaccine deployment programs. The final model we develop will provide empirical researchers and public health practitioners with credible answers to questions such as: 1) Are dengue epidemics most likely to start by transmission within small neighborhoods or through daily human movement to public places, and how does that determine appropriate response to urban outbreaks? 2) What are the most efficient options for release of transgenic Ae. aegypti strains with anti-dengue constructs? 3) Would it be more efficient and sustainable to combine deployment of dengue vaccines and Ae. aegypti management, or to invest in the single tactic that is most effective and economical on its own?

描述（由申请人提供）：登革热是一种由蚊子传播的人类病毒性疾病，目前被认为是最重要的节肢动物传播的人类病毒性疾病。据估计，每年会发生 50-1 亿例登革热（断骨热）病例和约 50 万例危及生命的登革出血热病例。除了对受影响个人的直接影响外，城市登革热流行还压垮了热带国家的公共卫生系统。登革热病毒的主要传播媒介是埃及伊蚊，它与人类生活密切，以人类血液为食。目前抑制登革热流行的唯一有效方法是使用家用杀虫剂喷雾剂。如果有效使用，这些喷雾剂可能会有效，但通常情况并非如此。目前正在进行研究工作，以开发针对登革热的疫苗，并培育经过基因工程改造的蚊子菌株，这些蚊子的基因可以阻止登革热从蚊子传播给人类。尽管这些新方法以及改善蚊子的常规化学控制的希望很大，但登革热的流行病学仍存在许多未知因素，因此很难确定如何部署新疫苗、工程蚊子或新型杀虫剂。我们也不知道单独使用单一最有效的新策略是否最有益，或者使用策略的组合是否最有益。由于新干预措施有效性的实验研究通常必须在全市范围内进行，因此此类实验通常不可行或不道德。计算机模拟研究通常为从太空旅行到全球气候变化等科学领域的直接实验提供了替代方案。数学模型的模拟一直是研究麻疹等直接传播疾病的关键因素，但在昆虫媒介疾病的研究中较少使用。我们的总体目标是创建和测试最全面、最强大的埃及伊蚊/登革热动力学模拟模型，以便为研究、监管和管理界提供建模工具，以有效指导蚊媒管理和疫苗部署计划。我们开发的最终模型将为实证研究人员和公共卫生从业者提供以下问题的可靠答案：1）登革热流行是否最有可能通过小社区内传播或通过日常人类流动到公共场所开始传播，以及如何确定适当的传播途径？应对城市疫情？ 2) 释放转基因AE最有效的选择是什么？具有抗登革热结构的埃及菌株？ 3) 将登革热疫苗和AE结合起来部署是否会更有效、更可持续？埃及管理，还是投资于最有效和最经济的单一策略？