Fertility After a Large-Scale Disaster

大规模灾难后的生育率

• 批准号: 8229658
• 负责人: JENNA E. NOBLES
• 金额: $ 7.53万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-02-28 至 2014-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8229658
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Area; Baseline Surveys; Birth; Characteristics; China; Communities; Community Surveys; Complement; Complex; Contraceptive Agents; Contraceptive Availability; Country; Data; Data Analyses; Data Collection; Data Set; Disasters; Earthquakes; Economics; Empirical Research; Environment; Event; Evolution; Family; Fertility; Fertility Determinant; Fertility Rates; Funding; Goals; Haiti; Hazard Models; Indian Ocean; Individual; Indonesia; Interview; Literature; Low income; Measurement; Measures; Natural Disasters; Pakistan; Pattern; Persons; Physiological; Policies; Population; Population Dynamics; Process; Provider; Province; Proxy; Recovery; Research; Resources; Respondent; Series; Services; Shock; Spontaneous abortion; Sumatra; Surveys; Time; Trauma; Tsunami; United States; Water; Woman; Work; base; design; hazard; improved; informant; insight; interest; killings; men; mortality; physical conditioning; response; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application seeks funding to examine demographic change after a recent large-scale disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. We aim to elucidate the timing, pace, and determinants of fertility in Indonesian communities that were exposed to a continuum of destruction. To do so, we draw from a highly unusual data set - the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) - collected during 2004-2010 in over 500 communities from two provinces of Indonesia. The study includes regions of Indonesia that were completely destroyed as well as communities that were not exposed to the tsunami. The data thus support a treatment-control design to study the disaster's effects. Because the baseline survey was conducted in 2004, the survey is representative of population before the disaster, and much is known about the survey respondents before the event (N~40,000). Data on these respondents, their families, their communities, and their service providers were collected beginning five months after the tsunami. Re- interview occurred approximately annually for five years after the event. We aim to capture the timing and the evolution of a fertility response to the disaster by comparing temporal trends in aggregate fertility in the heavily damaged and undamaged regions. We then develop a series of multilevel hazard models that examine how the timing of post-disaster fertility responded to pre-disaster attributes, disaster exposure, and temporal shifts in fertility antecedents - such as contraceptive availability and economic stability - in the wake of the event. Measurement of respondents prior to the disaster provides a means of causally attributing observed fertility changes to mechanisms shifted by the disaster. The proposed research both informs our understanding of the post-disaster environment in Indonesia and provides theoretical insights for larger questions regarding demographic response to population trauma. Of particular importance is our ability to assess why fertility changes in the context of disaster - an underdeveloped line of inquiry with clear implications for improving recovery policy and interpreting modern fertility trends. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed research is part of an ongoing effort to understand the demographic consequences of population trauma. We will examine the timing, pace, and determinants of fertility change following a recent large-scale disaster - the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. We seek to analyze data on fertility and its antecedents in Indonesian communities from the Survey of Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, which was fielded before and after the disaster in regions spanning a continuum of destruction.

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请寻求资金来检查最近发生的大规模灾难，即2004年印度洋海啸。我们旨在阐明印尼社区中生育能力的时机，步伐和决定因素，这些社区暴露于连续的破坏。为此，我们从2004年至2010年在印度尼西亚两个省的500多个社区中收集的高度不寻常的数据集（对海啸和恢复（Star）的研究）中汲取了灵感。该研究包括被完全破坏的印度尼西亚地区以及未接触海啸的社区。因此，数据支持治疗控制设计，以研究灾难的影响。由于基线调查是在2004年进行的，因此该调查代表了灾难之前的人口，并且在事件发生前的调查受访者（n〜40,000）中众所周知。这些受访者，他们的家人，社区和他们的服务提供商的数据在海啸后五个月开始收集。活动结束后，每年大约进行一次访谈。我们的目的是通过比较受损和未受损的地区的造育量的时间趋势来捕捉对灾难的生育能力反应的时间和演变。然后，我们开发了一系列多层次危害模型，这些模型研究了灾后生育能力的时间如何应对杀虫前属性，灾难暴露和生育前期的时间转变，例如避孕药的可用性和经济稳定性 - 事件发生后。在灾难之前对受访者的衡量提供了一种因果关系，将观察到的生育能力变化归因于灾难转移的机制。拟议的研究都符合我们对印度尼西亚灾后环境的理解，并为有关人口对人口创伤的人口反应的更大问题提供了理论见解。尤其重要的是我们能够评估为什么生育能力在灾难背景下发生变化 - 这是一种欠发达的调查线，对改善恢复政策和解释现代生育趋势的明显影响。 公共卫生相关性：拟议的研究是了解人口创伤的人口后果的持续努力的一部分。我们将研究最近发生的大规模灾难之后，生育能力变化的时机，节奏和决定因素 - 2004年印度洋海啸。我们试图通过对海啸后果和恢复的调查来分析有关生育能力及其在印尼社区的前提数据，该调查是在遭受毁灭持续破坏的地区的灾难之前和之后进行的。