Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of Mycobacterial Disease Control

分枝杆菌疾病控制的数学和统计模型

• 批准号: 8249035
• 负责人: Rebecca Lee Smith
• 金额: $ 7.29万
• 依托单位: CORNELL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2016-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8249035
• 关键词: Animals; Area; Biological; Cattle; Clinical; Computational Biology; Diagnostic; Disease; Disease model; Doctor of Philosophy; Economics; Enrollment; Epidemiologist; Health; Human; Immunology; Infection; Leprosy; Link; Markov Chains; Medicine; Mentored Research Scientist Development Award; Mentors; Methods; Microbiology; Modeling; Mycobacterium avium; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; Output; Paratuberculosis; Population; Postdoctoral Fellow; Protocols documentation; Public Health; Research; Research Personnel; Science; Statistical Models; Techniques; Time; Tuberculosis; Universities; Use of New Techniques; Vaccines; Veterinary Medicine; Visit; Work; base; college; design; disease transmission; disorder control; field study; graduate student; improved; mathematical model; mycobacterial; pathogen; post-doctoral training; professor; programs; public health relevance; statistics

DESCRIPTION (provided by Candidate): CANDIDATE: Dr. Rebecca Smith DVM MS, a veterinary epidemiologist, is currently enrolled in a Ph.D. program in the field of Clinical Biomedical Sciences at Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine. Her work has been recognized to be unique and ground-breaking in linking disease modeling, statistics, and veterinary medicine. ENVIRONMENT: Dr. Smith's mentor, Dr. Yrjo Grohn is a highly respected veterinary epidemiologist, chair of Cornell University's Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences. Dr. Grohn has expertise in disease modeling and statistical analysis of disease, and has mentored many graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and visiting scholars in these fields. Dr. Smith will also be working with and mentored by a multi- disciplinary executive committee, including Dr. Robert Strawderman (Professor of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology), Dr. Loren Tauer (Chair of the Department of Applied Economics and Management), and Dr. David Russell (Chair of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology). TRAINING PLAN: The K01 award will support Dr. Smith's post-doctoral training and subsequent work as a Research Assistant. During this time, she will develop new mathematical and statistical models for mycobacterial diseases and transition into independence as a researcher. PROPOSAL: Dr. Smith will apply techniques developed for mathematical and statistical models of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis to three other mycobacterial diseases. A model for M. bovis spread within herds will be designed and analyzed to inform US eradication protocol. An existing model for M. tuberculosis will be used to economically and socially optimize control strategies, and will be used as the basis for a reverse jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (rjMCMC) model that will be able to estimate vaccine and control program efficacy from field trials. A model will be designed and analyzed for M. leprae infection and parameterized using rjMCMC techniques; the finished model will be used to optimize control strategies. These models will reveal new areas of possible research at the intersection between human and animal health. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE (provided by Candidate): This study will develop methods to determine the efficacy of mycobacterial disease control programs, focusing on tuberculosis in humans and cattle and on leprosy in humans. Optimal control methods will be determined using the new techniques developed, improving public health strategies for these globally important diseases.

描述（由候选人提供）：候选人：兽医流行病学家丽贝卡·史密斯（Rebecca Smith DVM）博士目前已入学。康奈尔大学兽医学院临床生物医学科学领域的计划。在将疾病建模，统计和兽医医学联系起来，她的工作被认为是独特而开创性的。 环境：史密斯博士的导师YRJO Grohn博士是备受推崇的兽医流行病学家，康奈尔大学人口医学和诊断科学系主任。格罗恩博士在疾病建模和统计分析方面具有专业知识，并指导了许多研究生，博士后研究员以及这些领域的学者。史密斯博士还将与多学科执行委员会合作并指导，包括Robert Strawderman博士（Robert Strawderman博士（生物统计学和计算生物学教授），Loren Tauer博士（应用经济学和管理部主席）和David Russell博士（微生物学和免疫学系）。 培训计划：K01奖将支持史密斯博士的博士后培训和随后担任研究助理的工作。在这段时间里，她将开发新的数学和统计模型，以用于分枝杆菌疾病，并作为研究人员过渡到独立性。 提案：史密斯博士将应用为分枝杆菌亚种的数学和统计模型开发的技术。旁结核病的其他三种分枝杆菌疾病。将设计和分析的牛乳杆菌传播模型，以告知我们根除协议。现有的结核分枝杆菌模型将用于经济和社会优化控制策略，并将用作反向跳跃马尔可夫链Monte Carlo（RJMCMC）模型的基础，该模型将能够估计疫苗和控制计划的效果。将设计和分析模型，以用于麻风策。完成的模型将用于优化控制策略。这些模型将在人与动物健康之间的交集中揭示可能的研究的新领域。 公共卫生相关性（由候选人提供）：这项研究将开发确定分枝杆菌疾病控制计划有效性的方法，重点是人类和牛的结核病以及人类的麻风病。最佳控制方法将使用开发的新技术确定，从而改善这些全球重要疾病的公共卫生策略。