Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

时空动态的分层模型*

基本信息

批准号：
7766233
负责人：
Gary Smith
金额：
$ 25.9万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2006-02-01 至 2013-01-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD. With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The heirarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (eg data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psycholgical) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.

我们将为时间开发一个基于证据的范式模型框架的层次结构族。两种直接传播的农场动物感染的空间传播：禽流感（Al）和脚和口腔疾病（FMD）。关于疾病系统建模，我们将创建本地（在牛群/羊群）、县、州和国家的 Al 和 FMD 模型。等级制度策略很重要，因为越简单的模型可以更快地完成并更容易参数化，因此更容易可能比更复杂的模型更可用。他们的行为更容易被可以推广到其他系统，并且可以在战略（如果不是战术）意义上为响应措施提供信息。这更复杂的模型是必不可少的战术工具，但需要更长的时间才能完成，而且它们行为可能不会那么容易推广到其他感染。我们的建议是一种妥协提供有关一系列潜在威胁的有用战略信息的需要和要求我们能够为有关预防、响应和恢复的战术决策提供信息。除其他外事物，我们将研究每个模型的适当粒度（规模）级别。有美国少数地区的农场位置地图符合大多数现有类型所需的详细程度州或国家尺度的时空传播模型。我们将设计模型（元种群/斑块/重力模型）基于其他空间分辨率（例如基于邮政编码的数据，县或国家电网系统）。我们将使用详细的空间来测试和校准这些近似值使用宾夕法尼亚州农场位置详细且广泛的 GIS 数据库开发随机模型然后将其使用扩展到美国其他地区。我们将使用模型来设计和完善预防、应对和恢复战略。禽流感和口蹄疫不仅是生物/农业恐怖主义的潜在媒介毁灭性的动物流行病本身就对人类造成了巨大的不利影响人类福祉（社会、经济和心理）。这里提出的模型将有助于规划预防、控制和应对策略。特别是在禽流感的情况下，控制鸟类感染是控制人类感染的先发制人的策略。