Climate Variability / Change and the Risks for a Spectrum of Diseases

气候变率/变化和一系列疾病的风险

基本信息

批准号：
8142944
负责人：
Shao Lin
金额：
$ 27万
依托单位：
NYSDOH/HEALTH RESEARCH, INC.
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2009
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2009-09-30 至 2013-09-29
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8142944
关键词：
Climate Variability Change Risks Spectrum

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Climate Variability / Change and the Risks for Under-Studied Adverse Health Outcomes Project Summary / Abstract Climate change affects the environment and increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Thus, its public health impact could be substantial. Many uncertainties remain in understanding the relationship between climate factors and health, however. Major gaps include the relative paucity of research on morbidity outcomes, lack of a composite index to measure the joint effects of individual meteorological factors, little data on the assessment of the public health burden, and few translational studies to directly apply local research findings into public health practice. Our proposed study will fill these gaps by evaluating both the independent and joint effects of various meteorological factors on some under-studied outcomes and translating our findings into a climate-health surveillance system and into public communication/education. Biologically-plausible but under-studied health outcomes, including tick-borne and water/food-borne diseases, adverse birth outcomes, and cold-related diseases will be examined in relation to extreme weather conditions, climate variability, special weather events, and the season-modifying effect of individual climate factors including temperature, humidity, air pressure, and wind in New York State (NYS). The Spatial Synoptic Classification II system, a composite weather index derived from five meteorological variables, will also be used to assess the impact of joint effects on these outcomes as well as other more commonly studied outcomes such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and heat-related disease. Potential confounders such as socio-demographic factors and maternal/infant characteristics will be controlled and the interactive effects between climate factors and air pollutants will be assessed. We will also try to determine if vulnerable populations such as the elderly, infants, minorities, people living below the poverty level, pregnant women, inner-city residents, or people with pre-existing chronic diseases are disproportionately affected by climate extremes or variability. For all outcomes except adverse birth outcomes, the case-crossover design or time- series analysis will be used to control for time-varying variables, and a two-stage Bayesian Hierarchical model will be used to assess regional effects as well as state-wide effects after controlling for regional differences (the case-control design will be used to study the birth outcomes). This study represents a unique effort to assess weather effects on some important but under-studied health endpoints, evaluating the joint effects of climate factors, and integrating local findings and data into the ongoing Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) system and public health education. This effort will improve our understanding of how climate factors jointly affect health as an air system, identify weather-sensitive diseases and populations, and identify the most hazardous weather factors. Our multi-disciplinary research team will use data already collected and geo- coded through ongoing NYS projects, readily available environmental and health data sets, and an established EPHT system to ensure the proposed study is feasible, efficient, and sustainable. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Climate Variability / Change and the Risks for Under-Studied Adverse Health Outcomes Narrative The proposed study will help us understand how weather factors, both individually, and jointly as a climate system, affect human health. It will be the first study or one of the few studies to assess some important but under-studied health outcomes including vector-borne diseases, water/food-borne diseases, adverse birth outcomes, and cold-related diseases. The findings from this study will be integrated into the current Environmental and Public Health Tracking Program in New York State to develop a climate-health surveillance system and guide the state environmental and health agencies to plan intervention strategies and preparedness programs.

描述（申请人提供）：气候变异性 /变化以及研究不足的不良健康结果的风险项目摘要 /抽象气候变化会影响环境，并增加了极端天气事件的频率和强度。因此，其公共卫生影响可能很大。但是，许多不确定性仍然在理解气候因素与健康之间的关系中。主要差距包括对发病率结果的研究相对匮乏，缺乏衡量个体气象因素的共同影响的综合指数，对公共卫生负担评估的很少数据以及很少的转化研究直接将本地研究结果直接应用于公共卫生实践中。我们提出的研究将通过评估各种气象因素对某些研究不足的结果的独立和共同影响来填补这些空白，并将我们的发现转化为气候健康监视系统，并将其转化为公共交流/教育。在生物学上可行但研究不足的健康状况，包括tick传播和水/食源性疾病，不良的出生结果以及与极端天气状况，气候变异性，特殊天气事件以及纽约温度，湿度，气压，风度，纽约州（New York）的个人气候因素（包括气候变化）相对于极端天气，特殊天气事件以及季节性调节效应。空间天气分类II系统是从五个气象变量得出的复合天气指数，也将用于评估关节影响对这些结果的影响以及其他更常见的结果，例如呼吸，心血管，肾脏，肾脏和热相关疾病。将控制潜在的混杂因素，例如社会人口统计学因素和母体/婴儿特征，并评估气候因素和空气污染物之间的互动效果。我们还将尝试确定弱势群体，例如老年人，婴儿，少数民族，生活在贫困水平以下的人，孕妇，市中心居民，或者患有先前存在的慢性疾病的人会受到气候极端或变异性的不成比例。除了不良出生结果以外的所有结果，案例分解的设计或时间序列分析将用于控制随时间变化的变量，并且将使用两阶段的贝叶斯分层模型来评估区域效应以及在控制区域差异之后范围内的效果（病例对照设计将用于研究生物抗生素）。这项研究代表了一项独特的努力，以评估对某些重要但研究不足的健康终点的天气影响，评估气候因素的共同影响，并将当地发现和数据整合到正在进行的环境公共卫生跟踪（EPHT）系统和公共卫生教育中。这项工作将提高我们对气候因素如何共同影响健康系统，确定对天气敏感疾病和种群的健康的理解，并确定最危险的天气因素。我们的多学科研究团队将通过正在进行的NYS项目，易于获得的环境和健康数据集以及既定的EPHT系统来使用已经收集和编码的数据，以确保拟议的研究是可行的，高效的，可持续的。公共卫生相关性：气候变化 /变化以及研究不良健康结果的风险叙述拟议的研究将有助于我们了解单独和作为气候系统的天气因素如何影响人类健康。这将是评估一些重要但研究不足的健康结果，包括媒介传播疾病，水/食源性疾病，不良出生结果和与冷疾病的研究之一。这项研究的发现将纳入纽约州当前的环境和公共卫生跟踪计划，以开发气候健康监视系统，并指导州环境和卫生机构计划干预策略和准备计划。