The application of COAPEC research to improve seasonal forecasts

应用 COAPEC 研究改进季节性预报

基本信息

批准号：
NE/E522575/1
负责人：
Rowan Sutton
金额：
$ 9.3万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2007 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FE522575%2F1
关键词：
application COAPEC research improve seasonal

项目摘要

The COAPEC (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Processes and European Climate) programme began in 1999 and will end in 2006. It represents an investment by NERC of some £5.5million with the goal of determining the impact on climate, especially European climate, of the coupling between the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere. The programme has been very successful, producing many high quality publications (e.g. special issue in Journal of Climate, 19, 7, 2006). It is now important to ensure pull-through to maximise its wider impacts.A major application of COAPEC research is to seasonal climate forecasting. Seasonal forecasting is a cutting-edge technology which offers the potential to provide information about the likelihood of different weather conditions months in advance. The Met Office has been a pioneer in the development of seasonal forecasting and, in mid-2005, issued one of the first ever forecasts for European winter. This forecast attracted a great deal of interest from a wide range of users both in government (e.g. Cabinet Office, Secretary of State for Transport, Energy Minister) and in the commercial sector (especially the energy industry). This interest was a powerful demonstration of user need.The purpose of this project is to work with the Met Office to translate the outcomes of COAPEC research into specific improvements of the Met Office's seasonal forecasting system. The project, which will be 50% funded by the Met Office, will involve: evaluation of the existing forecasting system; experimentation to assess the representation of critical processes; implementation of specific changes to the system; and evaluation of the benefits gained.

COAPEC（耦合的海洋大气过程和欧洲气候）计划始于1999年，将于2006年结束。它代表了NERC的投资约550万英镑，目的是确定对气候的影响，尤其是欧洲气候，尤其是大西洋大洋与气氛之间的耦合。该计划非常成功，产生了许多高质量的出版物（例如《气候杂志》，19，7，2006）。现在，重要的是要确保拉扯最大化其更大的影响。COAPEC研究的主要应用是对季节性气候预测。季节性预测是一项尖端技术，可提供有关提前几个月不同天气条件的可能性的信息。大都会办公室一直是季节性预测发展的先驱，并在2005年中发布了有史以来第一个欧洲冬季的森林之一。这项预测吸引了政府中广泛的用户（例如内阁办公室，交通国会部长，能源部长）和商业部门（尤其是能源行业）的兴趣。这种兴趣是对用户需求的有力演示。该项目的目的是与大都会办公室合作，将COAPEC研究的结果转化为大都会办公室季节性预测系统的特定改进。该项目将由大都会办公室资助50％，将涉及：对现有预测系统的评估；评估关键过程表示的实验；实施系统的特定更改；并评估获得的收益。