Summer: Testing Influences and Mechanisms for Europe (SummerTIME)

夏季：测试欧洲的影响和机制（SummerTIME）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/M005909/1
负责人：
Rowan Sutton
金额：
$ 62.18万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM005909%2F1
关键词：
Summer Testing Influences Mechanisms Europe

项目摘要

The recent string of wet UK summers had considerable impact on society via effects such as flooding. The summer of 2013 then bucked the trend, with unusually warm and dry conditions prevailing. The proximate causes of these unusual seasons were shifts of the Atlantic jet and storm track, which steers the path of individual storms. But are there deeper underlying causes: remote or 'external' drivers that can have an influence on the jet stream? If so, can we use these drivers to improve our forecasts of these high-impact events from months to years ahead? These are the questions that will be addressed by the SummerTIME proposal. Summertime shifts of the jet stream appear to be related to Atlantic Ocean temperatures, both on seasonal and decadal timescales. Other potential drivers include sea ice variations, anthropogenic aerosol emissions and tropical circulation patterns. However, climate models in general have difficulty in reproducing these observed relationships, and operational seasonal forecast systems have little skill in predicting jet shifts. The primary aim of SummerTIME is to advance the science of seasonal to decadal prediction of summertime atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic-European region. The meteorology of summertime circulation has historically been much less studied than its wintertime counterpart, and much remains to be understood of its fundamental nature. A secondary aim of SummerTIME is to improve our understanding of the fundamentals of summer circulation, for example why the storm track splits into two distinct paths just west of the British Isles. This will be investigated using the latest observational datasets and a hierarchy of numerical models of different complexities. A series of sensitivity experiments will be performed centred around a new version of the Met Office climate model coupled to a very detailed model of the ocean surface layer. These experiments will be designed to test the roles of possible drivers such as ocean currents, sea ice and aerosol forcing. Finally, the project will analyse a wide range of state of the art forecast systems, particularly from the Met Office but also from other forecasting centres around the world. The aim is to identify missing or poorly represented processes in the forecast systems and investigate how these may be improved. The SummerTIME team will work closely with scientists from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, to ensure that the results are successfully pulled through to aid the development of operational forecast systems.

最近，英国潮湿的夏季通过洪水等影响对社会产生了很大影响。随后，2013年夏天，由于异常温暖和干燥的条件流行，使这一趋势震惊。这些不寻常的季节的最直接原因是大西洋喷气和风暴轨道的转变，它驱动了单个风暴的道路。但是，是否有更深层的原因：远程或“外部”驱动程序会影响喷气流？如果是这样，我们可以使用这些驱动程序来改善未来几个月到几年的这些高影响事件的预测？这些是夏季提案将解决的问题。喷气流的夏季变化似乎与季节性和十年时间标准的大西洋温度有关。其他潜在的驱动因素包括海冰变化，人为气溶胶排放和热带循环模式。但是，气候模型通常难以再现这些观察到的关系，并且运行季节性预测系统在预测喷气转移方面几乎没有技能。夏季的主要目的是将季节的科学推进到北大西洋地区夏季大气循环的十年预测。夏季循环的气象学在历史上比冬季的研究要少得多，而且还有很多待了解其基本性质。夏季的次要目的是提高我们对夏季循环基础的理解，例如，为什么风暴轨迹分为不列颠群岛以西的两条不同的路径。这将使用最新的观测数据集和不同复杂性的数值模型的层次结构进行研究。将进行一系列灵敏度实验，以新版本的MET Office气候模型与海面层非常详细的模型相结合。这些实验将旨在测试可能驱动因素的作用，例如洋流，海冰和气溶胶强迫。最后，该项目将分析广泛的艺术预测系统，尤其是来自大都会办公室，也可以分析来自世界其他预测中心。目的是识别预测系统中缺失或不当代表的过程，并研究如何改善这些过程。夏季团队将与来自大都会办公室和欧洲中型天气预报中心的科学家紧密合作，以确保成功完成结果以帮助开发运营预测系统。