Women's Economic Hardship and Childlessness

妇女的经济困难和无子女

• 批准号: 7210548
• 负责人: STEVEN P MARTIN
• 金额: $ 6.88万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-07-01 至 2008-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7210548
• 关键词: Age; Age-Specific Birth Rates; Birth Rate; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Demographic Factors; Dependency; Disadvantaged; Economics; Elderly; Event; Exercise; Family; Fertility; First Births; Future; Growth; Income; Investigation; Lead; Life Cycle Stages; Link; Longitudinal Surveys; Marital Fertility; Marital Status; Marriage; Measures; Minority; Modeling; Pattern; Procedures; Race; Rate; Recording of previous events; Research; Research Project Grants; Sampling; Sampling Errors; Single-Parent Family; Socioeconomic Status; Standards of Weights and Measures; Surveys; Time; Uncertainty; Woman; Women' s Group; Youth; career; cohort; improved; insight; population survey; programs; reproductive; social; trend; young adult

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research project proposes to increase the understanding of changing patterns of childlessness by accomplishing two specific aims. The first aim of this project is to identify changing patterns in childlessness, divided across educational and racial groups for U.S. women born between 1950-54 and 1970-74, using marriage and fertility histories in the 2001 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), supported by data from marriage and fertility histories in June Current Population Surveys for 1990 and 1995. This part of the project will use event history models to estimate age-specific birth rates and derive estimates of proportions of women remaining childless at age 45, and to project levels of childlessness among women who have not yet completed their reproductive years. This projection exercise will improve upon previous analyses of group differences in childlessness in several technical respects: by modeling possible dependencies between a cohort's observed first birth rates at young adult years on its predicted first birth rates at older adult years, by providing estimates of the uncertainty due to both sampling error and model specification; by using data on marital status to assess model projections; and by evaluating possible effects of changes in educational attainment (across cohorts and within the life course) on estimated levels of childlessness within each educational group. The second aim is to use changes in marriage to identify racial and educational differences in the life course events that lead to rising levels of childlessness, using the 1996 and 2001 SIPP as the primary data source. This project will use a standard decomposition procedure outlined by Das Gupta (1993) to estimate the contribution of several demographic factors to recent increases in childlessness. These factors are: changes in marriage rates for childless women; changes in nonmarital first birth rates; and changes in first birth rates after marriage. The decomposition analysis of marriage and first birth transitions will show whether and how childlessness is increasing for different groups of women for very different reasons. As such, the analysis of the marital paths leading to childlessness will provide information about important differences between childless women of different socioeconomic status. This analysis will also provide insights into possible links between rising childlessness and other family changes (such as increases in non-marital fertility) that have occurred mostly among socially and economically disadvantaged groups of women.

描述（由申请人提供）：该研究项目旨在通过实现两个具体目标来增进对不断变化的无子女模式的理解。该项目的首要目标是利用 2001 年收入和计划参与调查 (SIPP) 中的婚姻和生育历史，确定 1950-54 年和 1970-74 年之间出生的美国女性按教育和种族群体划分的无子女模式的变化。 ，以 1990 年和 1995 年 6 月当前人口调查中的婚姻和生育历史数据为支持。该项目的这一部分将使用事件历史模型来估计特定年龄的出生率，得出 45 岁时仍无子女的妇女比例的估计值，并预测尚未完成育龄妇女的无子女水平。这项预测工作将在几个技术方面改进之前对无子女群体差异的分析：通过对一组观察到的年轻成年第一生育率与其预测的老年第一生育率之间可能的依赖关系进行建模，通过提供不确定性估计由于抽样误差和模型规格；使用婚姻状况数据来评估模型预测；并通过评估教育程度的变化（跨群体和生命历程内）对每个教育群体内无子女估计水平的可能影响。第二个目标是以 1996 年和 2001 年的 SIPP 作为主要数据源，利用婚姻的变化来识别导致无子女水平上升的生命历程事件中的种族和教育差异。该项目将使用 Das Gupta (1993) 概述的标准分解程序来估计几个人口因素对最近无子女人数增加的影响。这些因素是： 无子女妇女结婚率的变化；非婚初生率的变化；以及婚后第一胎出生率的变化。对婚姻和第一胎转变的分解分析将表明，由于不同的原因，不同妇女群体的无子女现象是否以及如何增加。因此，对导致无子女的婚姻路径的分析将提供有关不同社会经济地位的无子女妇女之间重要差异的信息。这项分析还将深入了解无子女现象的增加与其他家庭变化（例如非婚生育率的增加）之间可能存在的联系，这些变化主要发生在社会和经济上处于弱势的妇女群体中。