New model for describing and projecting adult mortality

描述和预测成人死亡率的新模型

• 批准号: 7069597
• 负责人: John Bongaarts
• 金额: $ 6.32万
• 依托单位: POPULATION COUNCIL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-06-01 至 2007-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7069597
• 关键词: Canada; Europe; Japan; United States; adult human (21+); age difference; behavioral /social science research tag; data collection methodology /evaluation; gender difference; human data; human mortality; human old age (65+); human population dynamics; longevity; mathematical model; model design /development; statistics /biometry

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of the proposed research is to develop and test a new methodology for projecting future trends in adult mortality by age and sex. This new procedure corrects shortcomings in existing forecasting methods, including the widely used Lee-Carter model. More accurate projections of adult mortality are essential to improving projections of the population size of the oldest age groups, and of the future cost of public pension and health care systems. Specific aims are as follows: 1) Complete testing the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the age pattern of the force of mortality. Preliminary tests used country-specific data from the Human Mortality Data Bank for females and males ages 25-109 in 14 populations and demonstrated that 2 variants of the logistic models fit well for the period 1950-2000. These tests will be extended to the pre-1950 period in 8 countries for which such data are available. 2) Test the goodness-of-fit of the general shifting model. This model uses only 2 parameters to describe adult mortality change over time: 1 for the amount of the age shift in senescent mortality and the other for the level of background mortality. This approach introduces an alternative way of thinking about senescent mortality change. The conventional view that mortality change implies increases or decreases in age-specific mortality rates is replaced with the view that considers mortality change to be the result of changes in the timing of death. The model is expected to provide a concise mathematical description of past trends. 3) Develop a new methodology for projecting age-sex specific adult mortality rates over time based on the general shifting mortality model. 4) Test the new projection method by comparing its results with projections produced by the Lee-Carter procedure.

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议研究的总体目标是开发和测试一种新的方法，用于预测按年龄和性别划分的成人死亡率的未来趋势。这一新程序纠正了现有预测方法的缺点，包括广泛使用的 Lee-Carter 模型。更准确地预测成人死亡率对于改善对最年长年龄组人口规模以及公共养老金和医疗保健系统未来成本的预测至关重要。具体目标如下： 1）完整检验死亡力年龄模式Logistic模型的拟合优度。初步测试使用了人类死亡率数据库中 14 个人群中 25-109 岁女性和男性的特定国家数据，并证明逻辑模型的 2 个变体非常适合 1950-2000 年期间。这些测试将在 8 个可获得此类数据的国家中扩展到 1950 年之前的时期。 2) 检验通用换档模型的拟合优度。该模型仅使用 2 个参数来描述成人死亡率随时间的变化：1 个参数表示衰老死亡率的年龄变化量，另一个参数表示背景死亡率水平。这种方法引入了另一种思考衰老死亡率变化的方法。死亡率变化意味着特定年龄死亡率增加或减少的传统观点被认为死亡率变化是死亡时间变化结果的观点所取代。该模型预计将为过去的趋势提供简明的数学描述。 3) 开发一种新的方法，根据一般转移死亡率模型来预测随时间变化的年龄-性别特定成人死亡率。 4) 通过将新的投影方法的结果与 Lee-Carter 程序产生的投影进行比较来测试新的投影方法。