Affective Forecasting

情感预测

基本信息

批准号：
7020699
负责人：
DANIEL TODD GILBERT
金额：
$ 31.55万
依托单位：
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1997-05-10 至 2008-02-28
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7020699
关键词：
behavior prediction behavior test behavioral /social science research tag clinical research cognition decision making developmental psychology emotions experience human subject mind control neuroimmunomodulation perception psychoneuroimmunology psychophysiology social psychology

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by investigator): The frequent experience of positive affect is a cornerstone of psychological and physical well-being. To maximize such experiences, people must be able to accurately forecast the affective consequences of future events. Our recent work on affective forecasting has investigated how such predictions are made, uncovered mechanisms that promote inaccuracy, and demonstrated some of the implications of these mechanisms for decision making. The present proposal argues that (a) unexpected and unusual events are particularly capable of evoking affective reactions, (b) people are driven to understand and explain such events so that they can control their reoccurrence, and (c) one consequence of understanding and explaining events is that these events lose their power to evoke affect. This simple conceptualization suggests several avenues for future research, and provides a general unifying theme for our past and proposed work. The current proposal describes 20 studies that explore the ways in which understanding and explaining events modulates affective experience, as well as the ordinary person's ability to predict these effects. Studies on "The Mechanics of Affective Forecasting" represent the next step in our effort to understand exactly how people make forecasts about the impact of future events. Studies on "Tactics of the Psychological Immune System" represent our continuing interest in understanding how people deal with negative events, with special emphasis on automatic processes. Studies on "Paradoxes of Immune Neglect" describe some of the potentially important ways in which the ordinary person's misconceptions about the causes of his or her own hedonic states can impact decision making. Finally, studies on "The Pleasures of Uncertainty" and "Reinvigorating Past Pleasures" deals with people's forecasts and experiences of positive events.

描述（由研究者提供）：经常经历积极的经历情感是心理和身体健康的基石。最大化对于这样的经历，人们必须能够准确地预测情感未来事件的后果。我们最近在情感预测方面的工作研究了如何做出此类预测，发现了促进的机制不准确，并展示了这些机制对决策。目前的提案认为，(a) 意外和不寻常的事件是特别能够引起情感反应，(b) 人们被迫理解并解释此类事件，以便他们能够控制其再次发生， (c) 理解和解释事件的一个后果是这些事件失去了唤起影响的力量。这个简单的概念化表明未来研究的几种途径，并提供了一个总体统一的主题我们过去和拟议的工作。当前提案描述了 20 项研究探索理解和解释事件的调节方式情感体验，以及普通人预测这些的能力影响。 “情感预测的机制”的研究代表了下一个我们努力准确了解人们如何做出预测未来事件的影响。 “心理免疫策略”研究系统”代表了我们对了解人们如何处理问题的持续兴趣负面事件，特别强调自动过程。研究 “免疫忽视的悖论”描述了一些潜在的重要方式普通人对他或她的原因的误解自己的享乐状态会影响决策。最后，研究“ 不确定性的快乐”和“重振过去的快乐”涉及人们对积极事件的预测和经历。