AFFECTIVE FORECASTING

情感预测

• 批准号: 2034906
• 负责人: DANIEL TODD GILBERT
• 金额: $ 14.75万
• 依托单位: HARVARD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-05-10 至 2002-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2034906
• 关键词: behavior prediction; behavior test; behavioral /social science research tag; clinical research; cognition disorders; human subject; model design /development; mood disorders; psychological models

DESCRIPTION (Applicant's abstract): The theory of affective forecasting describes how people predict their emotional reactions to future events. The theory suggests that one's mental representation of a future event elicits both affective and cognitive reactions, and that these reactions are combined in particular ways to provide forecasts of one's future reactions. The model suggests that when making such forecasts, people often fail to consider (a) that they may be representing the event incorrectly (the misconstrual problem), (b) that their affective reactions to the representation may be poor proxies of their later affective reactions to the event itself (the contamination problem), (c) that their cognitive reactions to the representation may be wrong, incomplete, or underutilized (the miscorrection problem), (d) that their wishes and fears may have distorted their forecasts (the motivation problem), (e) that their minds will work to transform or "rationalize" negative affective states (the immunity problem), and (f) that other future events are likely to modify their affective states considerably (the vacuum problem). These problems may leave people susceptible to a variety of inferential errors (e.g., the durability illusion, the invisible hand illusion, the benevolent leader illusion, etc.). Eleven preliminary studies in both the laboratory and field support the basic predictions of the model, The present proposal describes sixteen new studies that use a variety of experimental and quasi-experimental paradigms to investigate the mechanisms that underlie affective forecasting as well its personal and interpersonal consequences. Past research has shown that the frequent experience of positive affect is a cornerstone of psychological well being. People can successfully attain such experiences only if they can predict the affective consequences of different courses of action. The theory of affective forecasting provides an explicit information-processing model that describes how such predictions are made and suggests a host of factors that should increase or decrease the accuracy of those predictions. If psychologists can learn how people predict and mispredict their own affective reactions to future events, they will be in a better position to help people make more accurate forecasts, and hence, personal choices that will enhance their psychological well-being.

描述（申请人的摘要）：情感预测理论 描述人们如何预测他们对未来事件的情绪反应。 该理论表明，一个人对未来事件的心理表征 引起情感和认知反应，并且这些反应是 以特定方式结合起来以提供对未来反应的预测。 该模型表明，在做出此类预测时，人们常常无法 考虑 (a) 他们可能错误地描述了事件（ 误解问题），（b）他们对 表征可能不能很好地代表他们后来对事件的情感反应 事件本身（污染问题），(c) 他们的认知反应 表述可能是错误的、不完整的或未得到充分利用（ 错误纠正问题），（d）他们的愿望和恐惧可能已经扭曲 他们的预测（动机问题），（e）他们的思想会致力于 转化或“合理化”消极情感状态（免疫问题）， (f) 其他未来事件可能会改变他们的情感状态 相当大（真空问题）。 这些问题可能会让人们 容易受到各种推理错误的影响（例如，耐久性 幻象、看不见的手幻象、仁慈领袖幻象、 ETC。）。实验室和现场支持的十一项初步研究 模型的基本预测，目前的提案描述了十六个 使用各种实验和准实验的新研究 研究情感预测背后机制的范式 以及其个人和人际后果。 过去的研究表明，频繁体验积极情绪是一种 心理健康的基石。 人们可以成功地达到 只有当他们能够预测这些经历的情感后果时，他们才会有这样的经历 不同的行动方针。 情感预测理论提供了 一个明确的信息处理模型，描述了如何进行此类预测 提出了一系列应该增加或减少的因素 这些预测的准确性。 如果心理学家能够了解人们如何 预测和错误预测自己对未来事件的情感反应，他们 将能够更好地帮助人们做出更准确的预测， 因此，个人选择将增强他们的心理 福利。