Climate Extremes in a Warmer World: What the Pliocene tell us?

变暖世界中的极端气候：上新世告诉我们什么？

• 批准号: 2887786
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2887786
• 关键词: Climate; Extremes; Warmer; World; What

Weather and climate extremes, accompanied by adverse socio-economic impacts, are of great interest to the public and decision-makers. The prevalence of these events has intensified. Boreal wildfires have increased in frequency (e.g., Alaska and Siberia). Heat extremes have become more common in Southeast Asia and Europe, and droughts more common in East Africa and South America. This project will facilitate a novel perspective on hydrological and heat extremes (e.g., wildfire, heat waves, droughts) through the study of a warm climate state in Earth history. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3 million years ago) was the last time atmospheric CO2 was comparable to present (~400 ppm). Studies indicate that the during the mid-Pliocene global temperatures were up to 5oC warmer than the pre-industrial era. The Arctic Ocean was seasonally ice-free, boreal forests reached the Arctic coastline and sea level was metres higher than it is today. Given a rich body of geological evidence, and climate model data the Pliocene is a key focus for international palaeoclimate modelling efforts.This project will investigate climate extremes during the mid-Pliocene using a spectrum of numerical climate models, that range in spatial resolution and complexity. These outcomes will be compared to both observational trends in climate extremes and simulations of plausible climate extremes of the near future under different greenhouse gas emission/stabilisation scenarios. The project has three main objectives using historical observations to provide the necessary baseline for comparison:- Analyse the geographical distribution, duration, and frequency of temperature extremes during the mid-Pliocene and compare these results to future climate scenarios. - Analyse the geographical distribution, duration, and frequency of hydrological extremes (e.g., droughts, high intensity rainfall events) during the mid-Pliocene and compare these results to future climate scenarios. - Elucidate the relationship between temperature/hydrological extremes and the geographical occurrence/likelihood of wildfires during the Pliocene. This will include reference to new geological data sets documenting wildfire occurrence through charcoal layers preserved in multiple terrestrial deposits. MethodsThe project will combine existing datasets of terrestrial Pliocene data with new records of fossil charcoal occurrence. It will use climate model outputs produced at Leeds and provided via members of the international Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), to investigate high-level granular climate data (e.g., statistical analysis of daily-monthly data). The student will examine climate data (3-hrly) from a set of high-resolution Atmosphere-only model (HadAM3H 1.25 x 0.87o) simulations as well as some of the worlds very latest climate and Earth System Model contributing to PlioMIP (e.g., NCAR - CESM2 & UK Met Office - HadGEM3-AO).

极端天气和气候及其不利的社会经济影响引起了公众和决策者的极大兴趣。这些事件的发生率有所加剧。北方野火的频率有所增加（例如阿拉斯加和西伯利亚）。极端高温在东南亚和欧洲变得更加常见，干旱在东非和南美洲更加常见。该项目将通过研究地球历史上的温暖气候状态，促进对水文和极端高温（例如野火、热浪、干旱）的新视角。上新世中期温暖期（约 300 万年前）是大气中二氧化碳含量最后一次与现在（约 400 ppm）相当。研究表明，上新世中期全球气温比前工业时代高出 5 摄氏度。北冰洋季节性无冰，北方森林延伸至北冰洋海岸线，海平面比现在高出数米。鉴于丰富的地质证据和气候模型数据，上新世是国际古气候建模工作的重点。该项目将使用一系列数值气候模型研究上新世中期的极端气候，这些模型的空间分辨率和复杂性各不相同。这些结果将与极端气候的观测趋势以及不同温室气体排放/稳定情景下近期可能出现的极端气候的模拟进行比较。该项目有三个主要目标，利用历史观测提供必要的比较基线： - 分析上新世中期极端温度的地理分布、持续时间和频率，并将这些结果与未来的气候情景进行比较。 - 分析上新世中期水文极端事件（例如干旱、高强度降雨事件）的地理分布、持续时间和频率，并将这些结果与未来的气候情景进行比较。 - 阐明上新世期间温度/水文极端事件与野火的地理发生/可能性之间的关系。这将包括参考新的地质数据集，记录通过多个陆地矿床中保存的木炭层发生的野火。方法该项目将把现有的陆地上新世数据集与化石木炭出现的新记录结合起来。它将使用利兹产生并由国际上新世模型比对项目（PlioMIP）成员提供的气候模型输出来调查高水平的颗粒气候数据（例如，每日每月数据的统计分析）。学生将检查来自一组高分辨率纯大气模型 (HadAM3H 1.25 x 0.87o) 模拟的气候数据（每 3 小时）以及有助于 PlioMIP 的一些世界最新气候和地球系统模型（例如， NCAR - CESM2 和英国气象局 - HadGEM3-AO）。